Archive for March, 2012

Past storm left 4 to 6 inches of Very Light Dry Powder….Now Moving Slowly Out of the Region…..Warmer Days Ahead!!

It is a cold morning in Mammoth. 5 degrees at the village. Highs today will struggle to get up to freezing.  The exiting weather system is still kicking up some wind over the crest with a NE/SW orientated upper jet.  Clearing skies are expected this morning as the Blue Birds return…..

Fair Weather with warming temps are expected through Friday with highs well into the 50s by then……

The weekend will be a mixed bag with partly cloudy skies Saturday, with a bit cooler temps. Then a slight chance of snow showers Sunday into Tuesday…..

As the eastern pacific high continues its retrogression west of Hawaii…..and then amplifies….stormy weather will be more in the offering next week.

More information later as confidence increases……………………

Dr Howard and the Dweebs……………………..:-)

————————————————-
Reference Glossary of Weather Terms
Disclaimer: I have been a hobbyist meteorologist for over 30 years here in the Mammoth area and I do this for my personal enjoyment. The National Weather Service saves lives every day . . . I do not. When making important planning decisions please use information provided by the National Weather Service as they are the most knowledgeable and accurate information source available today.

Cold And Blustery Today With Light Snow……Chilly Weather to Last Another Day Wednesday Then Warmer Through Friday…..Retrogression of Long Wave Early Next Week…..

It is a vigorous little system that is into the high county at the moment. Too bad it does not have more over water trajectory….The WX front is into  Mono county at the moment….with the key vort center over the central valley indicated by both rotation along the NE quad and darkening of the Water Vapor Loop in that area.

Looking at the Tuesday 12Z WRF…..Mammoth is feeling the effects of the Rear Rt entry region of the upper jet with a moderate PG from WSW to ENE. limited over water trajectory of the upper jet and moisture will account for light amounts of snowfall.

The system has a pretty cold 500-1000mb thickness pool over Oregon of 516DM. The Thickness pool will head SSE down through Western NV over the next 24 hours with the 522DM contour near Mammoth at 09z Wednesday.  With winds aloft and surface gradients tight/strong….this should make for a very windy afternoon and night from the Owens Valley then south and south east to Vegas.  Today is not the day for a drive from Mammoth to Vegas with a trailer!  High Wind Warnings are hoisted beginning at 10:00am for the Owens valley today and through 4:00am Wednesday morning.

Snow will be in the 1 to 3 inches range through tonight for Mammoth Lakes. By morning, the upper jet will be NE/SW orientated, so winds over the top of the sierra will gust in excess of 100mph from the NE,  while the lower elevations are just breezy.  Temps will peak in the low 30s the next two days. Over night lows early Wednesday Am are expected in the single digits and low teens….

The next weather maker will be another upper ridge with fair weather returning with a rapid warm up expected Thursday into Friday. Thereafter…..a fair but partly cloudy weekend is expected with highs in the upper 40 and low 50s…..

Longer Range:

Retrogression is expected in the long wave pattern next week with a long wave trof setting up off the west coast.  The ECMWF is wet for California. The GFS keeps Mammoth to the south of the significant precip. So the EC is deeper and the GFS shallower with the location of the Magic 500mb 564DM heights in the mean….

The way the winter has gone so far…..one would tend to be pessimistic and lean toward the GFS as it is drier.  Expect an update on all this by the weekend.

Dr Howard and the Dweebs………………………………:-)

 

————————————————-
Reference Glossary of Weather Terms
Disclaimer: I have been a hobbyist meteorologist for over 30 years here in the Mammoth area and I do this for my personal enjoyment. The National Weather Service saves lives every day . . . I do not. When making important planning decisions please use information provided by the National Weather Service as they are the most knowledgeable and accurate information source available today.

Windy Cold Weather To Return Tuesday With The Chance For Some Light Snowfall…..Then Milder Weather To Return By Thursday Into The Weekend…..

 

 

After a spectacular weekend…..Monday has begun on a fair note. The Dweebs expect gradually increasing winds in the afternoon. The current upper ridge aloft will make way east in advance of the next windy weather maker March style. This mornings 12z guidance showed the rear right entry region of a 110knot upper jet sagging south the next 24 hours. This will likely induce a band of light snowfall to develop dynamically over the northern and Central Sierra Tuesday morning behind the cold front.  The FROPA is expected by 8-9 Am here in Southern Mono County. Winds will be the strongest between Sunrise and the FROPA here in the Mammoth area. QPF from CRFC is just under .3 inches for Yosemite. So 1 to 3 inches best bet. As the upper trof comes through…the effects of the front left exit region of the upstream upper jet approaches the region with an increase of wind over the crest and again the chance of some flurries or snow showers later Tuesday afternoon into Wednesday Am. The upper jet translates east Wednesday. Milder temps will return in the following days. So we begin with high temps today into the 50s with a 20 degree drop in temps expected tomorrow Tuesday. Highs by Thursday/Friday will be back into the upper 40s/50s.

So again…..After a very chilly Tuesday and into Wednesday….milder weather will return Thursday into Friday will mild partly cloudy weather expected over the weekend. Beyond the weekend the longer range models still struggling with their differences. However the ECMWF has a rather impressive long wave trof effecting California next week. We will have to keep an eye on that one.  Overall, although the MJO has been in a favorable position, the AO has remained positive and is possibly hindering to some extent precip possibilities south into the South Central Sierra.

The outlook is very similar across the hemisphere with very cold temps continuing over AK and anomalous warmth over the much of the CONUS. The winter of 2011/2012 may end up as being one of the top 10 warmer winters over the continental US historically while in areas like AK and Europe one of the colder….

 

Dr Howard and the Dweebs…………:-)

 

————————————————-
Reference Glossary of Weather Terms
Disclaimer: I have been a hobbyist meteorologist for over 30 years here in the Mammoth area and I do this for my personal enjoyment. The National Weather Service saves lives every day . . . I do not. When making important planning decisions please use information provided by the National Weather Service as they are the most knowledgeable and accurate information source available today.