Archive for January, 2017

Mammoth Digs Out after Seige of Storms leaves snowfall amounts up similar to Late January of 1969…Short Term and Medium Range show a break in the weather of a week to 10 days….While Longer Range has the -EPO and -WPO Raising its Ugly Head Again………

Some of the greatest snowfall amounts since the big winter of 1969 has buried the Town of Mammoth Lakes.  There are walls of snow some 15 to 20 feet high in some places and snow up to the 2nd story is common place throughout the Mammoth Slope Subdivision. For you locals out there….get lots of pictures, as this is possibly a 1 in 50 year event! In that this is only late January, odds are that a lot more snow is coming.

Looking at the week two charts of both the ECMFW and GFS, the two global models show both the -WPO and -EPO teleconnection strengthening, which is a strong indicator of blocking over Alaska and the Bering Sea. This is the pattern we had in both December and Early January when we had Atmospheric Rivers hit both Central and Northern CA. So far this has been the winter of AK blocking that began last October if you remember.

What you can do to protect your property:

Take preparations over the next week by creating snow storage:

  1. Cover windows buried in snow
  2. Get roofs shoveled and remove ice dams.
  3. Protect your Propane Tanks from Ice and snow, especially around the gas lines. Big winters are notorious for creating broken gas lines around tanks which can create leaks and possible fires and explosions.

Get snow trucked out of possible.

9:20AM Update:

The New Deterministic GFS just finished Running… It is more similar to the Canadian…

The Location of the Block is the key teleconnection between the -EO and -WPO sector. It sets up the AR over time back into Central and Northern CA. In fact according to the GFS, there is a complete westerly break through into the Golden State by the 6th of February.

Based upon what we have now and what the future may bring, I think that it is entirely possible that this winter will break snowfall records of the winter of 1969 by the end of February….


Dr Howard and the Dweebs……………………..:-)

Another 4 to 5 Feet Expected for the Town of Mammoth by Monday Night…..Storm Number 2 Rolls in Friday into Early Saturday morning…Followed by High Impact Winter Storm Saturday night into Monday leading up to the wettest January on record…..

Full on Blizzard Expected for Saturday Night into Sunday for Highway 395 in Mono County…. Everyone must carry Chains this weekend including 4WD with Snow tires.

The following is a excerpt from the National Weather Service in Reno. They stress readiness for storm #3…

The Dweebs will not update again until Monday night….



*Second in a series of three winter storms impacts the region today into Saturday morning.

*Lull in the weather Saturday afternoon is your window of
opportunity to make preparations for the next storm.

*Powerful Winter Storm to impact the Sierra AND western Nevada
Sunday into Monday.

*Below are some of the concerns, impacts, and preparation measures
you can take for the Sun-Mon storm from yesterday`s discussion.

* For communities in the higher terrain: Tahoe Basin, Mono County
  (looking at you Mammoth), and Virginia City. While there is
  potential for some unanticipated impacts, such as deck, roof, or
  carport collapses, local officials are extremely concerned about
  more downed trees across powerlines, roadways, and into homes. Dig
  out and clear as much snow as possible before the next storm moves
  into the area. Snow removal will become extremely difficult as
  feet of snow piles up. Prepare for extended periods of power
  outages, more downed trees, as well as being stuck in your
  residence. Local authorities are recommending enough non-
  perishable food for up to a week. Listen closely to local law
  enforcement and fire officials for recommendations.


The main push of snowfall is beginning to impact the Sierra early Friday morning across the Sierra. Expect deteriorating driving
conditions through the Sierra this morning with chain controls already in effect for all open Sierra passes. This next round of
snowfall will provide another 1 to 2 feet across the Sierra through Saturday morning with the heaviest snowfall roughly from 6am to 6pm
before lightening up somewhat this evening into Saturday afternoon. Not expecting snowfall to completely stop on Saturday between storms
but most likely will be a continuous period of light to moderate snowfall through the weekend until the next and stronger storm
arrives Saturday night into Sunday (See the Long Term discussion for details on this storm).

LONG TERM…Saturday Evening through Friday…

* Blizzard conditions likely in the Sierra on Sunday.
* Sunday could be one of the heaviest snow events western Nevada has
seen in years.
* Be prepared for extreme travel delays and potential road closures
and power outages.

The strongest of the three storms this week is still slated to move into the region late Saturday night, continuing to impact the region
through Monday night. The heaviest precipitation is anticipated on Sunday which in conjunction with strong winds is likely to create
blizzard conditions and road closures in the Sierra. This is also shaping up to potentially be one of the heaviest snow events western Nevada has
seen in years. Significant travel impacts are likely Saturday night through Monday morning, with lesser impacts lasting into Monday
night as the snow turns to lighter showers.


WX Discussion:

A strong westerly 150+ kt jet is positioned across the Sierra into western Nevada on Sunday with the first push of precipitation
associated with this storm. This will help with both upslope enhancement into the Sierra in addition to spillover into western
Nevada. The second enhancement to the storm will come Sunday night as a surface front and vorticity maximum interact and once again
increase snowfall rates. Instability showers will then continue Monday, tapering off Monday night.

There is warming aloft present in soundings as the first portion of this system moves into the region, however, these profiles are
staying below freezing at all levels. Have allowed a rain/snow mix in the lowest valleys Sunday morning to account for this warm
layer, but feel the more likely scenario will be a period of heavy, wet snow. As the colder air filters in Sunday, snow ratios
will increase with the character of the snow becoming more powdery.

The main change to the forecast was to continue the trend of increasing liquid precipitation totals and therefore snow amounts
for this storm, especially on Sunday. Snowfall rates in the Sierra could exceed 2-4″ an hour during the peak of the storm with white
out conditions due to heavy snow and blowing snow. Current expectations are 3 to 4 feet of additional snow in the high Sierra
with 12 to 30 inches in the Tahoe Basin and for communities along Highway 395 in Mono County. Into western Nevada, totals through
the Greater Reno/Sparks/Carson City areas could reach 6 to 14 inches on valley floors with 1 to 2 feet in foothill locations,
including the Virginia City Highlands. Farther east across western Nevada, 3 to 8 inches of snow is possible.

Road closures and power outages are possible, especially in the Sierra, so be sure to prepare during the relatively quiet period on
Saturday. If you have snow on your roof, carport, deck, etc take the time to clear it off because additional heavy snow will continue and
structures could fail under the weight. The other concern will be the chance for trees to fall. Many trees are damaged from the past
drought, then have had loads of snow piled on top. In addition, the ground is saturated, so the strong winds will easily be able to
damage if not topple weak trees.

Tuesday through Friday conditions will be dry with a ridge building across the west. With the anticipated snow on the ground, this will
lead to strong inversions developing through the week and poor mixing. We will have to see if the inversion also leads to areas
with fog and low stratus, but will leave out of the forecast for now until we see how the storm Sunday plays out. –Dawn


Good Luck Mammoth! …………………………………:-)


Next Series of Storms make there way into the High County Today with a Rich Moisture Plume for Storm #1….Amounts for the Town of Mammoth 8 to 16 inches by Mid Morning Thursday…..

Thursday the 19th….


Mammoth Mt reported 20 to 30 inches of new this morning. Here at Mammothweather near the village, 16 inches of new has accumulated overnight. The Sierra is close to a record snowpack for this time of the year.  The Dweebs are concerned about a significant “AR” event in February on this record snowpack.  Although there is no “AR” in the forecast now or in the outlook period….Parts of the Central Valley maybe primed for flooding if one should occur….

The next two storms are looking very good…

The QPF collectively suggests that snowfall totals by next Wednesday would be in the neighborhood of 70 to 80 inches over the crest. Possibly between 30 and 40 inches at the Village. The good news is that for the snow weary, it really looks like

we’re in for a long break beginning this Wednesday into the first week of February.  Temperatures next week look cold, but moderating over the upper elevations by that following weekend while the valleys will be under an inversion.


In the very long-range, there has been some ensemble members that suggest that another AR is possible 3 weeks out.  However, there is nothing even close to being conclusive to that effect at this time….


It is time to enjoy all the snow and the best skiing in many years!


Dr Howard and the Dweebs…………………..:-)




The biggest change that the Dweebs are noting over the past 24 hours, is that the Global Models are showing a bit less split flow as the system comes through Thursday morning. So less shadowing will allow more snowfall into the Town of Mammoth. The California Rivers forecast center has increased their QPF by 25% for the Yosemite point. The Town of Mammoth at 7800 feet shows an inch of water and the Mammoth Crest about 1.85 by Mid-morning. Considering Temperatures, there should be no problem accumulating at least a foot in the lower elevations of town with amounts between 1 and 2 feet between the Village and Canyon Lodge. The upper mountain will possibly be in the 2 foot range, considering Snow to Water Ratios tonight in the morning hours.