Archive for year 2018

Winds Coming up Sunday will usher in Light to Moderate Storm System with some 5 to 10 inches expected over the upper elevations….2 to 5 inches in the Town of Mammoth….Pattern transition to colder NW sliders Christmas week with a hint of Retrogression in Western Hemi Pacific Pattern toward the New Year…

Saturday 4:40PM Update:  
Just had a peak at the Euro this afternoon, and it too is on board for either northwest or inside sliders beginning Christmas Day and another later that week.  This is a chilly pattern with generally light amounts of snowfall.  Snow to Water Ratios will be high….13:1 to 15:1.  More later on timing……..:-)

From Saturday AM:
Forecast is still on track for the Sunday Night/Monday Morning Storm with moderate amounts expected over Mammoth Mt. I will mention that the Saturday 12z GFS did show a narrow filament of atmospheric river sliding southward through Central CA early Monday AM. Although this storm is still expected to split as it moves onshore, the added moisture from the small “AR” might give us an unexpected bump in accumulation early Monday AM.  The Dweebs are still looking for up to 10 inches maybe a foot of snow over the upper elevations on Mammoth Mt. But a surprise might happen due to the AR.

The remainder of next week should continue to be dry. However there is a system passing to the north Thursday night the 20th that might kick up some breeze and give us some cloudiness. After a dry but possibly breezy weekend before Christmas, a transition will begin with either inside or NW sliders or in the case of the Euro, a wetter system from the west for Christmas even/day. I am not all that bullish yet on any of the particular solutions at this time because of their large differences and the fact that the CPC feels that the MJO will be in phase 4 and 5 through the end of this year. This means that there is not a significant tropical forced signal that supports strong storms in the week 2 period.  However, both GFS and ECMWF have some colder/wetter systems that may bring light to possibly moderate storms before year end. Additionally, at this time, no significant ARs are expected to affect our area as well through years end.

I will update later in the weekend……

Dr Howard and the Dweebs…………………:-)

Unsettled weekend on Tap with Wind…Sun and Cloudiness…Seasonal Temps to continue through weeks end….MJO in Phase 3 then 4 will put the Kabash on Storms beyond this Monday for next week….

12/14/2018  6:45am

Global models coming in more consolidated and a bit wetter with the Sunday night system so that’s a good point. Still looks like no more than a foot over the crest….

MJO in Phase 4 now propagating quickly according to most models….That’s excellent!  Contrary to the 8 to 14 outlook, This is an indication that we may indeed have a storm or two between Christmas and The New Year!

From December 13th; Beginning with this Friday, we are in for an unsettled period through the following Monday. The Dweebs expect a rather breezy day on Friday with Wind Warnings expected for travelers along the highway 395 corridor. For the most part, this trof is dry with little cooling for our area. The next and final upstream system continues to show weakening with just borderline light to moderate snowfall expected, mainly beginning Sunday night into Monday. The Models have been back peddling on this storm for over a week now as they play catch-up with the MJO moving out over the Indian Ocean and over the Maritime Continent where it is just now entering. The MJO; (Madden Julian Oscillation) creates a large scale area of upper divergence ahead and Upper Convergence in its rear. There is an predictable response from this air sea coupled wave depending upon “where it is”. As it moves over the Maritime Continent, the wave often forces higher than normal heights at 500MB (18000 ft) over the Eastern Pacific and far western US, often weakening or blocking storms from California. It is likley that after the upcoming Monday storm leaves, we warm up and continue to be dry though that following weekend.  It should be mentioned that this MJO in the location it is moving through will have a tendency to weaken a storm more than the global models might otherwise prog. So do not be surprised that by the time the storm gets here it is weaker and arrives even later than forecasted.  The MJO is progressive and will either weaken or progress east over a period of time and our winter weather will resume with storminess.  

Dr Howard and the Dweebs…………:-)

It will be a bit cooler this week with periods of Clouds and Sun and even a little light snow at times….Pattern Change for the weekend will favor better chances of snowfall….

12/11/18 5:15pm

Attended CPC meeting….Presenter indicated that the MJO will remain active and will propagate East into the Maritime Continent. With phases 3 and 4 into well into December. That goes against the idea of a cold period the weekend before Christmas and leans toward above normal temps Christmas Week. More later…..

December 11th, 2018:

Below normal temperatures have arrived once again in Mammoth with Daytime high temperatures back into the upper 30 and low 40s……Nighttime lows in the teens.  Although the weather pattern is active, little in the way of any snow is expected this week. Just the possibility of some periods of light snow showers. Stronger storm energy arrives by the Sunday/Monday period. Preliminary guidance shows a moderate snow producing storm bringing the possibility of some 6 to 12 inches for the upper elevations by late Monday. The Euro model has been pretty consistent in splitting the energy just prior to this storms arrival on the west coast…So major amounts are unlikely.  If we stick with the guidance of the ECMWF global model, temperatures will moderate upwards Tuesday through Wednesday next week with the pattern becoming very amplified Friday into the weekend before Christmas. The guidance shows a very cold Great Basin low developing with a series of inside sliders. The pattern has continental air in it and that’s cold! So although at this time, a major snow producing storm is not in the cards through the weekend prior to Christmas. There are storms capable of producing light to moderate snowfall. (Moderate Snow 6-18 inches)  

MJO:   According to the CPC; The MJO is expected to play a role in the tropical-extratropical teleconnections over the next few weeks. Short-term colder-than-normal temperatures over east-central CONUS is consistent with MJO forcing, while the enhanced phase over the Indian Ocean during the next 1-2 weeks favors a warmer pattern during the second half of December for the east. This is consistent with positive Arctic Oscillation (AO) index predictions over the next two weeks.

Note; Often times when the east is warm, the west is stormy and cold….Dr Howard and the Dweebs…………:-)

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A series of weak weather systems will be affecting our region the next week with a slight chance of snow showers but no significate accumulations expected. Winds over the upper levels will gust up to 50 MPH at times.

Daytime highs will range in the 30s and even some low 40s with teens and 20s at night. The further outlook for the upcoming weekend via the GFS Global Model, show better consolidation in the upper flow that would give a better forcing mechanism and lift to west coast storms. At the present time, Southern CA appears to be out of the storm track for some time…

Dr Howard and the Dweebs……………………..:-)