Archive for year 2018

Seasonal Weather to continue through the weekend with mild days and chilly nights….A few showers possible Monday then fair Tuesday……

Saturday Morning 10/20

Only changes in forecast revel that there will be less cloudiness for the Sierra for Sunday night through Monday night. Still…. There is a slight chance of showers from the weak low off the South Central CA coast. Temperatures may be a few degree cooler Monday through Tuesday. The belt of westerlies expected for next week are trending further north now. Even Northern CA may not have that much in the way of precip from the Wednesday and Thursday system. This is because of a strong Subtropical Ridge that will be building toward the Central West Coast. This ridge will dominate our weather next week through months end. High temps may actually reach near 70 next weekend.

ECMWF Climate Model Outlook: (Subject to change)
The next storm capable of some snowfall will be on the 4th of November.
The following system is expected on November 19th. That system according to the EC looks much stronger.
Note: Climate Model Outlooks are much subject to change and are not nearly as accurate as 3 to 5 day forecasts.

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A REX block over the west coast will dominate the weather through the weekend as high pressure over the Pacific NW is coupled with low pressure off the Southern CA Coast. This is a similar pattern of which brought thunderstorms to Southern CA last Saturday, except this time, the Low is not nearly as deep.

There is a belt of westerlies approaching the Pacific NW early next week that will move the R-Block along to the east. Through the process, the low off the SC coast will open into a Trof and allow a SSE flow to push some moisture and instability northward. This pattern may also allow some Thunderstorms to form over parts of the Owners Valley Sunday and there is a slight chance of some light rain or rain showers over Mono County. The snow level will be high if we get anything at all.  Thereafter, the westerlies will drive into the pacific NW bringing wet conditions with its AR.

To the south over Mono County, just wind and high clouds are possible Wednesday and Thursday;  possibly Wave Clouds for you photographer’s. Any precipitation appears to be over Northern CA at the moment, north of Highway 80.  There will be little change in temperatures the next several days with highs in Mammoth Lakes between 55 and 60, with lows in the mid 20s over the lower elevations of town and low to mid 30s at and above 8000 to 8500 feet.

A subtropical ridge is progged by several models to build into California over the following week ending the month of October on a dry note, although the climate models show possible precip during the first week of Nov…

 

El Nino:

The El Nino Basin is warming now….  There is still conjuncture whether it is a true Modoki type. Looking at the Nino Region’s 4, east to Nino 1+2 there is not a big difference in the forecasted SSTA’s in regions Nino 4 to Nino 3 but much cooler in Nino’s 1 and 2.  Thus, this is not a true Modoki from what I know and see. This will make the seasonal forecast for the rainy season more difficult for the Central Sierra, as it is likley more or less, to turn wet in January and especially February for Southern CA.   Additionally, there is a significant Blob of warm SSTs in the Gulf of AK and the Bering Sea.  However, it is not snuggled off the BC coast like in 2014.  This means that the Ridge will be parked a bit to the west of those years.  At the moment, there is likley to not be much if any influence upon our weather from El Nino for the remainder of this year. This El Nino appears to be a late Bloomer.

Dr Howard and the Dweebs……………………..:-)

First Hard Freeze to the High Country this morning with lows in the teens….Sunny Cool Days ahead with warmer weather this weekend…..Signs of the westerlies sagging south the Last Week of the Month…..

 

10/18/18:

Note:

By now the rumors are flying about the big AR that is headed for the west coast.  The GFS is the wettest for California. However, the ECMWF is dry at this time, so there is not much to chat about. So there is a change in the pattern for the high country, however, it looks to be mostly clouds and wind for Southern Mono County!

 

The Dweeber…………:-)

 

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It was a cold one this morning with lows temps in the upper teens. Dew points were near zero and so no frost was in the picture either.  Today’s 500MB weather maps showed cold air advection behind a front and trof that came through the high country last night.  The config of the pattern showed a ridge off shore and low Pressure to the SSE.  For this week, a NNE off shore flow continues through Thursday as an upper low spins up over AZ.  Then the ridge off shore builds inland this weekend into the pacific NW, kicking the upper low over AZ out.  This pattern is a dry one for the high country and it will remain rather chilly, especially at night. As the upper ridge build into the pacific northwest this weekend, high temps should climb some 5 to 7 degrees by the end of the week. I expect low’s in the upper 20s and 30s at night this weekend at the Village at Mammoth, not teens…

The longer range is like this:

The GFS has the westerlies sagging south the end of the month while the ECMWF stays dry.  The Forecast for the ECMWF has winter storms returning to the high country by Mid November on the 00z October 11th run. I expect that product to be updated either today or tomorrow and I will report…The EC in the longer range is usually a better tool than the GFS.

 

Dr Howard and the Dweebs………………….:-)

Intermountain Trough of Low Pressure will remain in place the next couple of days locking in below normal temperatures along with the possibility of Snow Showers along the Eastern Slopes of the Sierra…Mainly Between Tonight and Thursday Evening…..Only a very light dusting is expected…Expect a warming trend this weekend into next week with dry weather…..

As highlighted above, the aforementioned intermountain Trof will remain in place through Thursday, but will split on Friday as the northern portion progresses east into the northern Mid West and the southern part spins up off the coast of Southern CA.  At the moment, it is expected that Mammoth Will remain north of the favorable NE quad of that low with just some easterly winds into the weekend.  The upper high over Alaska will progress west into the pacific NW later next week and will be part of a REX BLOCK, where by the an upper low trapped underneath the upper high will initiate an easterly flow. At this time, it is thought that any upper divergence from that upper low will remain to our south. However, If we do get anything from it, it would be around the 19th of October and it would not be much precip.

Looking down the road and considering the MJO Phase space, the MJO does circle back into 8/1. So another -EPO is possible before the end of the month. Any speculation beyond that is wishful thinking….   As a note, the  -EPO is associated with the undercutting of the westerlies.

Expect high temps now in the low 50s to climb ot the low 60s by Sunday or Monday and upper trend in Temperatures are expected later next week.

Many Nights now are below freezing and for the foreseeable future… 20s and 30s

ENSO:

At the 850mb level, anomalous westerlies have shifted eastward, with the largest anomalies centered near 110 W. This westerly wind burst continues to increase the availability of warm waters along the equator, increasing the likelihood of a transition to El Nino for the boreal winter.

 

The MEI will update tomorrow…

 

Dr Howard and the Dweebs………………:-)