Archive for year 2019

Another Cold Storm headed for Mammoth Saturday night into Sunday with well below normal temperatures…..Weather to remain cold next week with additional snowfall…..

Mammoth Locals enjoyed a chilly dry Friday with winter ski and board conditions on 12 to 18 inches of fresh powder.  The mountain is open for skiing and boarding from 7:00AM to 2:00PM daily.

The next weather system has another smaller subtropical connection that will allow for another 6 to 12 inches of snowfall on Mammoth Mt, Saturday night through Sunday.  For those skiing and boarding Sunday, expect cold, winter like conditions on Mammoth Mt, so plan according.  The QPF forecast updated for California Rivers Forecast center suggests up to an inch and a quarter of precip just west of the Mammoth Crest.  Some 3 to 5 inches of snowfall is possible at the Village at Mammoth between Saturday night and Sunday night.  The series of cold storms innated by the MJO over the El Nino Base state earlier in the week is thought to be at least, partially responsible for the unusually cold unsettled weather for mid May. The Cold unsettled weather is likely to continue through mid week…..and possibly beyond…..

The first half of the new week looks to be cold, breezy and blustery. Snow showers are possible….Especially mid week….

 

Dr Howard and the Dweebs………………:-)

 

 

A Series of Strong Springs storms will bring wind…Cold and Snow to the high country….High temperatures Thursday will be more early March like with some moderation upwards into the weekend…..

Wednesday AM Update:

The QPF has been grossly increased for this first storm as a powerful for May, Atmospheric River slams into the Southern Sierra. Here are the point forecasts for snowfall for the Mammoth Lakes area from the NWS, through Friday AM

Mammoth Mt:     Tonight – 5 to 9 inches; Thursday –  6 to 10 inches; Thursday Night – 2 to 4 inches.  So about 2 feet over the upper mountain by Friday AM.

Village at Mammoth   Tonight  1/2 to and inch; Thursday – 3 to 7 inches; Thursday Night – 1 to 2 inches, Friday AM  1/2 inch

 

As mentioned in the discussion below, The combination of the El Nino Base State and the strong MJO has created constructive interference, producing a massive amount of PWAT into the tropics, part of which has been picked up by the short wave train across the Eastern Pacific and into California.

 

Saturday nights storm will not have the rich source of PWAT that tonight’s storm has, so it will not be as wet.

 

Dr Howard and the Dweebs………………………..:-)

 

 

 

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What is particularly interesting about the developing pattern beginning Wednesday is the “amount of moisture highlighted in the PWAT parameter” in both EC and GFS, for a May Storm. This is quite unusual, but not exceptional. Strong winds will develop ahead of the front, that will be moving through our area Thursday morning. High temps will cool to the low 40s on Thursday. Lows in the teens and twenties Friday AM. About a foot of fresh snow is possible over the upper elevations of Mammoth Mt by Friday AM.

Another storm with an equally impressive upper jet will head into California later in the day Saturday, bringing more snow and rain, beginning later Saturday afternoon into early next week.  Although this system does not have the rich PWAT (precipitable water) indicated in the models like the Thursday storm, it appears to be a a storm that is more protracted in duration as the storm sort of stalls out over California next week. So precipitation is likely to become more convective in nature toward the middle of next week. I will have a better handle on next week’s storm by Sunday.  At this time, Saturday morning and  afternoon look to be the best time for outdoor activities this weekend, although it will become increasingly breezy in the afternoon. The high temperatures forecast for Saturday is 58 degrees in Mammoth Lakes.

Comments from the CPC:

  1. The MJO is now in phases 8/1 and is constructively interfering with El Nino.
  2. Constructive interference between the MJO and El Niño resulted in a coherent pattern spatially with large anomalies.
  3. El Nino continues to elevate the chances of above-average rainfall across the equatorial Pacific, while the MJO strongly favors above-average rainfall across parts of the East Pacific, Central America, and northern South America through at least late May.
  4. The above-average precipitation favored for the western U.S. is related to a highly amplified upper-level trough and an influx of subtropical moisture.

 

 

Dr. Howard and the Dweebs………………………:-)

Short term warm up to be followed by more unsettled weather….Beginning as early as Saturday…Then more likely Sunday and Monday….After a Warm up Thursday into Saturday…It will be cooler Sunday into next week…..

Saturday night….5-4-2019

Several forcing mechanisms will be affecting our weather this new week with the current upper low moving into Southern Ca and yet another that will develop off the coast of So Cal later this week.  It all adds up to an active week of showers and thunderstorms  for Mono County with high elevation snowfall.

Over the course of next week, (7 days);, areas of 1/2 to as much as an inch of water eq will fall in some areas. As it is convective the best chances will be over the higher terrain.  So an active week of weather with gradually cooler temps will follow. The forecast includes the chance of precipitation each day and even during some nights……….This may persist through next weekend.

 

The Dweeber……

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Had a peak at the new models this morning for the weekend and early next week.  The models are converging on a solution that brings some pretty strong upper divergence (unstable air) over the Central Sierra, both Sunday and Monday as the next closed upper low moves inland about Malibu CA. Sunday AM. The WX system sort of stalls out over Southern CA through Monday. There  is plenty of opportunity for some slow moving meso scale storms to develop over the sierra. These may produce some locally heavy precip, mainly during the mid to late afternoon hours like in the Summer. Storm may linger into the evening as well. Thundersnow possible….

 

The Dweeber……