Archive for January, 2019

Stormy Week on Mammoth Mt had resulted in 4 to 7 feet of fresh powder…..One Last smaller storm to bring up to another 8 to 14 inches Sunday Night…Week Long Break likely with next possible storm series beginning about February 1st….El Nino atmosphere coupling no where to be found….All the better!!

A Winter Weather Advisory is hoisted for Sunday night….  No change in the expected snowfall amounts for either the Mountain or the Town of Mammoth Lakes.

4 to 8 inches in town and some 8 to 14 inches on Mammoth Mt by Monday morning….

After a fair dry Saturday….Snowfall will begin mid to late afternoon Sunday and continue through Sunday night….Snow Showers are expected through Mid Morning Morning….

Snow showers ended this morning leaving partly cloudy skies…..N|S Upper Jet axis over NV this AM translating east. Saturday should be a day for the Blue Birds although some high clouds possible… Sunday the last in the series of storms rolls in mid to late afternoon. Should be a moderate snow producer for the upper elevations. Mam MT- 8 to 14 inches – 4 to 8 in town.

MLK holiday Monday looks partly cloudy with morning snow showers… breezy but nice….The week looks dry with high temperatures in the 30s and 40s. lows in the teens….

Next pattern change to wet may occur about the 1st of February. What are the Dweebs seeing?

Yesterday’s Climate forecast model, (CFS) and associated MJO phase space were a lot different than both the GFS and ECMWF. It showed the location of the enhanced convective state of the MJO moving to the Phase Space 7/8 of the MJO index. This track usually is professed with an increase in amplitude in the eastern pacific ridge that ends up with a teleconnection, (-EPO). IE Upper blocking over Alaska. The transition in phase space from 7 to 8 to 1 is usually accompanied by retrogression of the block over AK (-EPO) to near the Bering Sea….(-WPO) Mother Nature has a habit of extending the EAJ well into the eastern pacific during these times as the upper jet gets modulated/enhanced eastward. It is noted that both GFS and ECMWF did not show any of that. In fact to the contrary, the MJO dives into the circle of death in phase space 6 of the RMM-2 (western pacific). So there really is no agreement to believe from yesterday or even this morning by the MJO index to support the CFS at all. However, for the second day in a row the CFS has it again. Also, looking at the Week 2 progs of the GFS, both the 06z Friday and 12z Friday showed the -WPO teleconnection and extension of the EAJ to the eastern pacific. So… it is picking up on something! I would say that if the MJO index RIMM begins to mimic the CFS tomorrow AM, after several more GFS runs today and tonight, I will begin to have more bias toward the CFS tomorrow. At some point, if the CFS stays consistent, the GFS and eventually the ECMWF will come around. Climatically, anytime in February is ripe for this (-WPO) undercutting pattern…. Timing? During first week of February.

The last but not least of the 3 sierra storms getting ready to hit the high county by Tonight…..Winter Storm Warnings hoisted with a special emphasis on Blizzard Conditions later tonight! A break in the Weather is expected Friday and Saturday with another smaller system expected Sunday night….Next week looks dry with milder temps….

9:00Am Thursday AM Update:

Mammoth Mt Reports 24 hour snowfall amounts up to 4 feet of fresh snow. Winter Storm Warning is in effect until 4:00AM Friday. Upper elevations for the period 4:00AM this morning through 4:00AM Friday could pick up another 1 to 2 feet for a total 5 day snowfall of between 7 and 8 feet over the Mammoth Crest.

The Eastern Sierra Avalanche Center in Mammoth Lakes has issued a BACKCOUNTRY AVALANCHE WARNING:

* TIMING…In effect from Wed 6 PM PST to Fri 7 AM PST.
* AFFECTED AREA…The eastern slopes of the Sierra Nevada mountain range between Virginia Lakes on the north, to Bishop Creek on the south.
* AVALANCHE DANGER…The avalanche danger for the warning area will rise to HIGH tonight and will remain at HIGH thru tomorrow and tomorrow night.
* REASON/IMPACTS…Heavy snow combined with wind will result in widespread avalanching.
* PRECAUTIONARY / PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS…Very dangerous avalanche conditions. Travel in avalanche terrain is not recommended. Avalanches may run long distances and can run into mature forests, valley floors, or flat terrain.
*As a note, Mammoth Mt is an avalanche controlled area with snow safety devises that is much safer than the outlying back country area.

Cold Unstable air will bring periods of heavy snow today. Snowfall amounts at the Village could add another foot+ to last nights accumulations. Friday will have improving conditions with the chance of snow showers and light snowfall accumulations. 1-2 inches. Saturday looks partly cloudy and dry. Another but weaker storm may bring another 1 to 5 inches of snow to the 7000 to 8000 foot level and between 4 and 7 inches to Mammoth Mt by Monday AM. The remainder of the new week looks dry and milder….Excellent week ahead!

Next possible stormy period beginning about the 1st of February.

Note: El Nino has not yet coupled with the overlying atmosphere, over the tropics. The current pattern is being modulated possibly by the MJO. The Dweebs are expecting a highly amplified pattern developing later this new week which “may” end up with an under cutting of the westerlies by the first week of February. The Dweebs main focus will be on this possibility and will watch and report on its development next week for the longer range. Dr Howard and the Dweebs…………….:-)


As of 1:00PM; winds were pretty steady over the crest of Mammoth Mt with 65MPH, gusts 75-80MPH; In town, winds were SSW 15 to 30MPH. SFO Radar showing leading band of Precipitation already on shore over the Bay Area with pockets of heavy rain now occurring. Snowfall is into the Northern Sierra south to Alpine County. Looks like there is a small band of showers over the Sawtooth Range west of Bridgeport, CA.

The Updated HRRR model begins snowfall over the Mammoth Crest about 3:00PM with snowfall increasing in town around 4:00PM. It will be light…..

Winds will steadily increase this evening as a 970MB surface low west of Northern CA heads towards the Pacific NW.
PWAT within the storm is approaching 1.2-1.3 inches over our region by Mid Evening Wednesday. 850mb winds from the south-southwest will increase to 50-55 kts. This strong flow will combine with high moisture content to produce onshore IVT values of 750-850 kg/m/s, categorizing this event as a strong atmospheric river. Copious amounts of precip will occur tonight into the early mornings hours here in the high country. Expect a good four to five feet of snow over night over Mammoth Mt with 2.5 to 3.5 in the Town by Thursday evening. Most of this will fall tonight into Thursday AM.Local Blizzard conditions will hit tonight and continue into thorough 4:00AM Thursday. Snowfall will wind down Thursday evening…..The weekend looks partly cloudy with highs in the 30s and lows in the teens. Another smaller weather system will bring light snowfall Sunday night….Then a long break of a week or more…. PS…this is no El Nino…..So far the convective effects of El Nino has not awakened…..

Dr Howard and the Dweebs…………….:-)

Series of Storms headed for Central and Southern California…Wet Pattern but no El Nino……

Drought Stricken California will likely pick up a Bonanza of rainfall next week, as the next series of storms hits predominantly the southern half of the state. The first in the series hits the South Central Coast Tonight with the focus unfortunately on many of the the burn areas. Being that the storm is coming in predominantly negative tilt, there will be a lot of Convection, which means Thunderstorms with localized areas of heavy rain. The focus areas along the coast and inland seem to be from Malibu NW to Venture County and just northwest. However, most areas will get their fair share. Folks that live within and below the burn scar areas should pay close attention to the statements from the National Weather Service.

C7 day totals issued by the WPC this morning showed between 4 to 7

inches of rain over a 7 day period in the coastal mountains North and East between Malibu to East of Pt Conception.

EL Nino:

Although the storm track appears to be coming in from a more southerly latitude, there is actually a split in the flow due to ridging over the Rockies that is forcing the storm track into Southern CA. That will begin to relax by the middle of next week. This will allow storms to hit the Central Sierra better mid week. As far as El Nacho goes, there is little or no evidence that El Nino has anything to do with the rain that is coming to Southern California over the next week. Why? Just take a look at the area between the Dateline and south of California to and along the equator. There is little evidence of large scale coupling of significant convection over the Nino Regions and the overlying atmosphere. The convection is average at best. Only a pocket along the dateline. In my opinion, these are just good old fashion west coast January storms! BTW..Expecting Mammoth Mt to pick up another 4 to 6 feet mid week. Snow is possible for parts of thr Owens Valley as well the upcoming week,

Dr Howard and the Dweebs………………….:-)