Archive for year 2019

Mammoth Mountain Reports 6 feet of snow at Main Lodge kicking off the 2019/2020 ski season…..Off shore warmer-wetter system to bring light amounts of snow through Wednesday with higher snow levels…….Next colder wetter system moving in later Friday with heavy snowfall Friday night through Saturday…..Then fairly long break….

3:50PM Monday  the 2nd…

 

Snowfall is riding to our north…..Do not expect much over night or tomorrow.

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Temperatures have been pretty remarkable the past several days with strong inversions in the deserts. Last Sunday at noon it was 29 degrees at the main lodge, 23 in the Town while in bishop, 26 degrees….   The Town of Mammoth mixed out late in the afternoon Sunday as temps moved into the 30s. Bishop was still below freezing at 25.   All areas should mix out today…..

The Trof off shore is pretty unremarkable. There is a lot of moisture, but the stream is pretty narrow. Additionally, the area of lift over the sierra is non impressive with most of it north of Mammoth Lakes today. Because of the rising temps, snowfall in the town will be light. 1 to 3 inches today with possibly 5 inches on the mountain. The upper low west of the OR/CA border will retrograde SW tomorrow. That will allow a small ridge to develop over CA Tuesday and end any significant precipitation over the state. However, the upper low will move back toward the coast Tuesday night. This is the colder part of the current system. Snowfall will move back into the Sierra Late Tuesday night into Wednesday.  Snowfall amounts are problematic and the low is filling, somewhat cut off from the westerlies and its position to our area critical to snowfall amounts. At this time, the 12z models are putting much of the snow fall to the north of Mammoth, but that may change. Either way, this system is not a big deal…….3 to 6 inches?  Update tomorrow.

 

Of more significance is the Friday night and Saturday storm which many be between a 2 and 3 footer.   It is not a big storm but is slow moving. Clean up day is Sunday. Well have an extended break after that.

 

Dr Howard and the Dweebs…….:-)

All Systems Go For the First Major Storm for the Eastern Sierra….This will be a one two punch as a warmer wetter system arrives Saturday over Cold Air in place….

Winter Storm Warnings are hoisted for the Eastern Sierra beginning at 7:00PM Tonight through 7:00PM Thursday night.   For the Owens Valley, the Warning begins at 5:00PM this afternoon through Friday Morning at 5:00AM

The highlights with the Sierra part of the storm will be Blizzard conditions tonight and the potential for temporary road closures during blizzard conditions. Less windy condition are expected later Wednesday….

The Village at Mammoth still looks to receive over 2 feet of snow and the upper mountain about 3 feet by Thursday.  It will be cold in town with highs upper teens Thursday and Friday. Lows well down to the single digits.

 

There will be a break in the weather Friday afternoon and night with a wetter storm moving in Saturday. This system has a narrow AR connected to it. It will begin as all snow over the lowest elevations of the county then the snow level will come up Sunday and Monday. The big questions is, how much snow will the Owens Valley get on Saturday from this small AR? The Snow is likely to change to rain later in the morning Sunday….

 

For the Mammoth Area, another 2 to 3 feet is certainly possible for the Saturday through Tuesday System. I will update the longer range for next week later this week. However, there appears to be a major AR type storm with a fetch extending well west across the pacific lurking in our future around the 6th or 7th of December….

 

Based upon current trends…..The Christmas Holidays should offer plenty of Snow pack for all outdoor enthusiasts..

 

Dr Howard and the Dweebs…………………..:-)

 

Winter Storm Warnings Have been hoisted by the NWS beginning 7:00PM Tuesday through 7:00PM Thursday…..Winter Storm will move out Friday…..

11:45pm Sunday

Quick look at the 00z Mon Euro shows a slight jog of the upper low toward the coast.  It also stalls it out near the Bay Area Thursday morning into the early afternoon.  A little better…..

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Latest Guidance shows a powerful winter storm headed for the Sierra Tuesday night and should continue through Thursday.  Because of the dry cold front that will move through on Monday, bringing breezy weather and colder temperatures, The Tuesday night storm will begin as snow for the entire Mono County area. Snowfall amounts of 5 to 10 inches will be common along the highway 395 corridor with 10 to 24 inches west of Highway 395 and between 2 and 3 feet now expected over the higher elevations of the Sierra.  The QPF for this Storm for Mammoth MT is between 2 and 2.5 inches.  Because the temperatures are so cold, the snow to water ratios will be much higher than normal, with some areas like Mammoth Mt receiving between 2 and 3 feet by Thursday night. The bulk of the snowfall will occur Tuesday night through Wednesday night.  The Town and Village at Mammoth is likely to receive between 10 and 20 inches.

Here is the temperature forecast for Mammoth this week…

Monday   Tuesday   Wednesday   Thursday    Friday     Saturday

42/14        36/19       23 /12           23/7          22/6         28

The main change in the storm for this upcoming week is that it will not linger off shore as long. There is a bit more over land track. The upper low that forms off the OR coast spins up Tuesday night and moves onshore Wednesday as heights continue to fall down the coast. In that the trofs axis remains mainly along the coast, there is plenty of over water trajectory for the storm and will hammer the Sierra well!  Again the center of the storm does not become cut off and drift south. As a result, its more progressive nature allows the storm to kick out about a day sooner.  This will limit to some extent, the long period of heavy rainfall that was forecasted for the LA basin, earlier in the week.  LA will get a good shot of rain, however, 2 to 3 inch amounts over the LA Basin are unlikely. Although, those amounts my occur for the traverse ranges.

Monday’s dry cold front dropping south through the Great Basin will dump a lot of cold air upon the Owens Valley Floor.  This sets the stage for snow not rain, for the following pacific storm Tuesday night and Wednesday.

For the Owens Valley, the more inland trajectory of the 2nd system will possibly take “some” of the punch out of the precip forecasted Tuesday night through Thursday night. There was a plume of moisture that was lurking off the coast of Baja, that will now shift east rather than get pulled up into the Inyo County area. Again, this is because of the slight change in the pattern of the more inland path of the upper low. However, make no mistake about it, there is the potential for some 5 to 10 inches of snow for the Valley, which is plenty to create problems for holiday travelers.  At the Moment, there is currently a Winter Storm Watch out for the Owners Valley. The watch remains as there is some uncertainty about how much snow will fall.  Travelers should click on the following link Monday, to see if a warning is issues by the NWS.   SEE:  https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?zoneid=CAZ520

Longer Range:

  1. There may be another storm the Following Monday.
  2. Subsequent storms are expected to have more over water trajectory and be wetter.
  3. In some of the Euro runs, an AR is showing up for around the 7th of Dec.
  4. The warm water pool that everyone was worried about off the California Coast last September, moved west some 2000 miles. This actually is supporting storminess for the state, not hindering it.

Dr Howard and the Dweebs………………………..:-)