Archive for year 2020

Beautiful sierra weather is in store for the high country the next 7 to 10 days…..After Mid Month, the heat builds along with thunderstorms possibilities…

Dry Comfortable weather with breezy afternoons are expected through the 12th of July with Summer heat and the arrival of the Summer Monsoon not expected until after the 15th of July.
Weather Summery:
A Trof of low pressure aloft over the Pacific Northwest will remain stationary for the next 8 to 14 days. This will give the Mammoth area below normal temps week 1 (70F-75F), then more seasonal temps week 2.  (75 to 77).  Overnight lows are expected in the 40s and 50s.
Additionally, this Trof will enhance our afternoon and evening Zephyr. Thus, late afternoon and evening breezes will be stronger with gusts to 35 MPH. Our air mass will remain dry with virtually no thunderstorms while this pattern continues with a strong zephyr.
Longer Range:
Latest European Guidance suggests that this Upper Trof will retrograde just after Mid-Month to the Gulf of Alaska. (15th-18th)  This allows heights to build over the desert southwest along with the heat.
The EC model had 500MB heights by the end of the 15 day period, near 600DM.  This would complete the transition to Summer,  and the harbinger of the AZ monsoon?…. Well see. (depends upon the config of the Subtropical ridge.)
Over the far west, the heat will build during the 2nd half of July. Summertime afternoon and evening thunderstorms may become more likely.
Big question this morning is……After the upper Trof retrogrades west…will it redevelop over the pacific NW again shortly after?
Dr Howard and the Dweebs………………………….:-)

Last week of Spring begins with breezy conditions Monday through Tuesday and ends on a calm note with above normal temperatures next weekend as Smooth Spring hand-off expected to Summer……

Fathers Day:

 

It’s the first full day of Summer and it feels like it.  Temps today should hit 80 degrees in Mammoth.  At 12:00PM a light zephyr had begun.  For those that have never experienced Mammoth in the Summer, I can say without reservation, that Summers in Mammoth are nothing short of heaven on earth!  For the most part, Summers are dry, with low humidly.  Days are sunny with the exception of a handful of thunderstorm days.

The weather outlook this upcoming week will be fair with high temperatures some 10 degree above normal. As pressures build aloft this weekend, there will still be an afternoon Zephyr, A subtropical high will build aloft over the state for lighter afternoon breezes Monday and Tuesday. Afternoon convection will drive mainly isolated late afternoon thunderstorms Mid Week.  In the longest range, an early Summer Trof will bring some 10 to 15 degrees of cooling the end of the month into the first few days of July. This Trof looks to bring gusty winds fire weather concerns.  Nighttime lows may back down into the 30s for a day or two. However, highs will still reach upper 60s and low 70s.  All the global models have this Trof for the 29th, 30th and first few days of July.

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The westerlies continue to their recession to the north this week as Spring shifts to Summer this weekend. These are the very longest days of the year……  Sunset averages about 5:39 PM with Sunrises at 5:30 AM. Saturday’s daylight is 15 hours and 18 minutes. The Summer Solstice occurs at 2:44 PM Saturday Local time.

500MB charts and progs show a slow migratory short wave over the Pacific NW  Monday and Tuesday with 130 knot upper Jet NW/SE through far Northern CA. Expect breezy weather today through Tuesday. Wind advisories are hoisted for Mono County Lakes,  3:00PM Monday through 10:00PM Monday night. However, because the weather system is so far north, little if any cooling is expected the next few days….  Last weekends storm look to be the last of the season as the westerlies continue their retreat to the north….

 

Cut off lows may still enhance afternoon convection, the next few weeks for afternoon thunderstorms, however, afternoon temps likely to stay warm!!  70s….

 

Dr Howard and the Dweebs…..:-)

 

 

Weather pattern of variablity likley to continue another week…It will be cooler this weekend after a Troughs Passage…Then warming Sunday into following mid week….Another trough is likely the 2nd half of next week….

Seasonal temperatures are expected the next two days as short wave ridging build over the area.  Another late season trough descends from the GOA Friday bringing gusty winds and cooler temps Friday through Saturday.  Winds may reach advisory level Friday afternoon and night.  Temperatures will cool some 10 to 15 degrees between Thursday and Saturday. However, this cool down is not as strong as last weekends.  Lows at night are not expected to reach freezing over the weekend at resort levels but may get close to that in some remote areas along the highway 395 corridor Sunday AM.

Looking at the climate signals, there is a slow moving Kelvin Wave entering the western pacific. This is thought to be causing a false MJO signal by its air sea coupled convection over the western pacific.    Week two models sill show a slight weakness in heights at 500 mb over the far west during that period, meaning that temperatures will average closer to normal at resort levels as opposed to the coastal sections where it may get toasty next week.  Normal highs for Bishop are upper 80s now and for Mammoth and June Lake, upper 60s.  Seasonal temps are expected today.

 

Expect windy weather to develop Friday and especially Friday night as a short wave Trof moves through the area. Highs will cool to the low 60s on Saturday and this system is accompanied buy some initially-dry air. So Fire weather concerns are highlighted Friday and Friday night.  The is a 20% chance of showers Saturday over Mono County. expect rapidly warming temps Sunday into Tuesday next week.  Longer range guidance is still flirting with the idea that next weeks Trof  may be the last of Spring.  The ECMWF has hot subtropical ridge over us by the 25th of June while the GFS has a digging trof coming out of BC, Can.   So…. too soon to say Spring is over.

Dr Howard and the Dweebs……….:-)