Archive for year 2021

After a quiet day today…..More Thunder expected the rest of this week………..Drier weather expected Next Week with another heat spell the following week in August

7-27-2021

Although yesterday’s wave that pushed north through Mono County did not bring any measurable rain to Mammoth Lakes, it brought .5 inch of rain to June Lake, .22 to Crestview, .38 to Bridgeport and between .5 to 1.00 of rain to the Tamarack Fire last night. Today guidence shows more of a stable airmass with lifteds +2 in our area behind the wave. Nevertheless a few storms are still possible over the County of Mono late in the day. Tomorrow looks more active with more unstable air and a better chance of thunderstorms. Thursday looks active as well. The overall pattern is highlighted by the upper high over Wyoming and Colorado and a good moist SSE flow from AZ and Old Mexico.  Several spokes of vorticity or northward bound waves will move south to north channeled by a weak upper low off shore and the continental high. Typically, this week of July and into the early August is the peak of the Monsoon Season. (SE flow) Expect beneficial rains for many areas, from deep moisture in our area, and additional small areas of vorticity that will affect our area from the southeast.

Longer range shows drying later Sunday afternoon into Monday early next week behind the last wave Saturday, as the offshore low itself is coming in Saturday PM. More sunshine with no rain is expected next Monday into Mid-Week. Temperatures will be seasonal for the first few days of August.   Week-2 GFS charts show Incipient SE flow developing again by the weekend of the 7th with some isolated thunder possible, then an August heat spell developing the 2nd week of August. There is suggestion of SE flow with it so it may be accompanied by Thunder…..Lots of time between then and now to watch and comment….

One more comment…For the most part, coastal communities of Southern CA have been spared the heat that Interior CA has had this Summer.  This is largely in part because of La Ninas cold SST along the coast and strong onshore flow.   SSTs are warming up now and it won’t be long before Coastal CA gets its first real heat wave of the Summer, possibly during the 2nd week of August.

 

Dr Howard and the Dweebs………………………..:-)

 

The Southwest and Eastern CA getting into the Meat of the Monsoon Season now with a very healthy Easterly Wave headed for AZ….We’ll be Juicing up soon!!

7-24-2021 Update

Easterly Wave now over AZ will track off the Pacific Coast Monday. The Wave lifts north Monday AM through Southern CA arriving over the Owens Valley during the afternoon, reaching Mono Country later in the day and into the Night. For the Mammoth Area, this surge will bring precipitable water up to about an inch which give the potential for Heavy Rain in the afternoon and evening hours Monday/night.  Thunderstorms are likley, possibly into the night in some areas of the County. By late Tuesday Morning the wave is mostly north of us and were back to the usual thunderstorm pattern, (Afternoon into early evening), more typical of the Summertime Monsoon. The Dweebs expect afternoon and early evening thunderstorms the remainder of the new week, up until Sunday, when there is some indication of a drier pattern with SW flow emerging again for the first week of August.

As a comment, this pattern is notorious for benifical rains with lightning to the high country and even the chance of flash flooding. Make sure that if your camping outdoors or even in a motor home, you do not camp in any area even resembling like an arroyo,  or you may wake up to find that the Surfs up!

 

The Dweeber

 

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Mammoth has enjoyed mostly clean air this week. And although there has been a little haze now and then, its been a great Summer!  Weather maps highlight a pretty strong Easterly Wave, that’s located over New Mexico today, shifting west to AZ tomorrow. Its alreay been much wetter in AZ this Summer than the past several years but a lot more is headed over the next 1 to 2 weeks.   This pertictular wave will move off the coast of TJ, Mex and shift northward next week along the west coast. Deep monsoon moisture will push northward Sunday into CA with the potential for heavy rains in many of the Southern Ca Deserts, Owens Valley and the Eastern Sierra. Will be watching for the “Set Up” Monday or Tuesday of next week. The wave looks to remain off shore with the importation of Monsoonal Flow much of next week.  Lots of Humidity for Southern CA on the way!!  Another repeat may happen during the 1st week of August at some point.

 

Dr Howard and the Dweebs………………..:-)

Small Wave moving up along coast is weakening…Nocturnal storms not as likey tonight as earlier forecasted……Best Chance for thunder and rain is Monday now…..

Red Flag Warning still remain in effect Today Sunday into Monday AM for abundant lighting. WIth that said, the NWS is backing off on the over night action as the main wave comes through this afternoon now. This afternoons storms will mainly affect areas that are not so smokey like Southern Mono County. Tonights action should be over by 8:00 or 9:00PM. Tomorrows action is primary with Thunderstorms and the chance of heavy rainfall. Isolated thunderstorms are expected Tuesday with dry conditions Wednesday through Friday. There may be a pick up in the TSRW action next weekend…..

 

High Temps in Mamoth will be in the upper 70 today and low to mid 70s Monday then upper 70s again next week. Lows at night in the 50s