Archive for year 2021

Major Storm Slows a bit…..headed our way……Snow to begin Falling Wednesday AM with Heavy Snowfall Thursday and no end in sight!

4:30pm Wednesday 22;

Some changes to atmospheric river now going from weak to moderate. Additionally, trof coming in later Thursday has lower portion splitting off into small closed low. This puts 6 day bulls eye over Sierra, west of Bishop. Where over 9 inches of water is forecasted over Huntington Lake. More importantly….there is the possibility of an Epic cold wave the end of the year.  Plummer’s and condo managers will need to prepare.

 

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Persistent anomalous ridge parked between the Bering Sea and the Gulf of Alaska will help to keep a TROF anchored near the West Coast through much of the week and into next week. This setup will facilitate rounds of cold, continental air diving southward into the West, while also allowing broad swaths of subtropical moisture to slide under the ridge into the West Coast.  MJO in Phase 7 has this North American Pattern anchored with Cold Stormy weather is the west and warmer than normal weather in the east.   This pattern is quite anomalous for the length of its existence…..Stay Tuned…It Snow Megeddon!!  The travel difficulties begin!

PS the amount of snowfall from the first two storms is depended upon how the northern stream phases with the upper low west of California. If they phase more completely, the current forecast’s  would be quite underdone….

Were currently expecting to between 3 and 7 feet above 7000 feet through Sunday. 7 to 8 feet over the crest. for the same time period.   Next week the long wave just keep reloading so lots more snow to come though the end of the year!!  More detail on those storms later…..

 

Happy Holidays from the Dweebs!!!  ……………..:-)

Foggy valleys under weak ridge will give way to clearing skies as winds increase Sunday night into Monday…..

First of All, on the Mono Lake area, there is strong Pogonip fog in process at 9:30am this morning. If you are traveling into that area by car, turn on your defrosters and heat the windshield,  to prevent glass related ice fogging. The fog should burn off later today. As winds increase due to the upcoming pattern change, the fog should not return tomorrow morning.

Here is the latest update on the upcoming storm and latest Quantitative precipitation Forecast.

The latest precipitation forecast from the California Rivers Forecast center shows very light snowfall developing Tuesday afternoon in the town of mammoth and upper elevations. Amounts will be in the 1 to 2 inch range in town and 3 to 5 inches on Mammoth Mtn by 4:00am Wednesday.  24 hour amounts for Wednesday in town will be in the 4 to 6 inch range with 6  to 12 inches on Mammoth Mtn by 4:00am Thursday.  Thursday; up to a foot in town and 15 to 24 inches over upper elevations. Expect Platinum Powder conditions Friday with Snow to water ratios possible at 15:1. So another foot is possible by Christmas morning on old Woolly. During the period Saturday through Tuesday Am, an additional 1 to 2 feet is possible over the upper elevations between Christmas and the following Tuesday. Of course all this will be subject to change as new guidance comes out every morning.

 

Evolution of pattern:

The latest  GFS ensemble run begins to show some hint of where the pattern is going.

The GFS 5 day means show the current position if the Eastern PAC Ridge at 160w north of Kauai and and amped. This positions the long wave Trof at 130west and strongly positively tilt. Over the next two weeks that ridge shifts east to 155w but most importantly deamplifies, so that the LW trof shifts to the western Great Basin by years end. This is a colder and drier pattern one that brings either outside or possibly Inside sliders. Cold, showery, windy pattern that possibly begins the new year. The models have been struggling with both the MJO and the various global models for the end of week 2.  My gut feeling is that the long wave trof will remain in the west, either out over the Eastern Pac or the Great Basin for the foreseeable future keeping the east milder than normal and the west stormy. I do not think that it is just coincidental that the EP high seems to like the Central North Pacific with the warm water pool sitting Beneath it. The next move would be reamplifacation to redevelop the western trof westward.  Snowfall;  with shift of the LW trof eastward, it is less likely that excessive snowfall amounts will occur over the next week or 2. And although many of the GFS deterministic runs of the GFS are still touting much larger snowfall amounts for our Sierra, they seem over done without a moderate or strong AR.  Nevertheless, 5 to 7+ feet of snowfall is nothing to sneeze at, especially during COVID. 😷

Fab Weekend in Mammoth….Clear skies calm winds and plenty of snow! More on the way…Might be excessive…Well see..

12-19-2021

sudden stratowarm  event first week of January…

 

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Its a shoe in that the new week will bring a lot of snowfall. Were talking 5 to 6 feet in town beginning Tuesday PM with possibly 6 to 10 feet on the upper mountain by the 27th of Dec. A Christmas Eve and Christmas day that most wish were up here to share.  Questions remains, what happens after the Christmas weekend. Will the long wave progress into the Great Basin turning the pattern drier with modified Arctic Air, or will the Eastern Pacific Ridge retrograde again, backing westward to get it going all over again!.  There is no clear answer at this time.   The drier scenario brings some really cold weather with snowfall that is not so extreme for a time, before we ridge up up around New Years. The Retrogression scenario shows us how deep the rabbit hole will go with massive amounts of snowfall with no sense of end in sight. Sure which I took the blue pill!  Sound familiar?

 

More Later………… 🙄