Archive for year 2021

Cooling Trend this week with some light snowfall possible Early Friday AM….Gusty winds with better snowmaking conditions later this week…..Pattern going into transition months end…..

Sunday the 21st.    Beginning 3rd trimester of fall.

To confirm,  -NAO teleconnection setting up this week. This is our transition. Greenland Block will force a persistent ridge over the far eastern pacific. The are storms that will try to punch through. However, any that might get through will bring wind cooling and light amounts of snow at best.  More info soon.

 

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7:20PM  11/18/21

CPC discussion today made a point in mentioning the teleconnection  -NAO. The dreaded Greenland Block. High pressure aloft over or near Greenland The Block that develops next week causes cold air to pile up over east Central Canada with / Branch of Westerlies undercutting. The ugly point about this pattern is that by wavelength, it forces upper ridging near the west coast.  The Global Models have been struggling with this pattern but it looks like it will win out for a while.

 

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/

 

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11/16/2021

Highlights continue to be a pattern with a broad longwave ridge over the Eastern Pacific with the main anomalous heights over the NE Pacific.  An increasingly split flow pattern initiating about 140W, develops by day+5 with a small area of low pressure developing in the mean off the Southern CA coast, well off shore.  This continues the trend of dry weather for the Mammoth Lakes area and surrounding region through this week. Early in the week 2 outlook, IE day +8, the north pacific jet seems to want to progress further east as the main 500MB height anomaly shift east from the NE Pacific to Seattle.  By Day+ 11 (Around Thanksgiving) The upper jet strengthens over the Central Pacific. At the same time, weak height rises begin to occur over the Central Pac. The main area of anomalous upper heights also shifts east from Seattle. This suggests a possible pattern in transition, much like the 21 day cycle outlook I have referred to in the past several days is going to take place at months end.   Looking at this mornings GFS EXT ENS charts with optimism, there appears to be a trough approaching California at the end of the month with a rather “Significant AR”  for the Central Sierra.  However, the EURO has an AR,  but the upper jet is much more zonal,  and well to our north. Obviously there needs to be much more time for these curiosities to work themselves out!  😉  Keeping positive thoughts!!!  Remember, the warm pool over the Central Pacific often times foster more ARs for the west coast. (The current timing is around the 29th).

Sensible weather; partly to mostly cloudy weather is expected more often than not with highs in the 50s at resort levels and lows cooling to the 20s. There will be periods of wind, mainly in the short term, over the sierra crest this week.  The forecast and outlook is still dry….

Dr Howard and the Dweebs…………………..:-)

 

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11/15/2021

It was a very warm weekend with the high temperature Saturday the 13th in Bishop, CA of 80 degrees was recorded at the Bishop AP with local sites in town reporting highs as warm as 83.  A high temperature record on November 13th of 87 was recorded during the exceptional warm period during the year of 1906.  The latest 80 ever recorded at the Bishop AP was December 18th 1901. In fact, the only month on record in Bishop without an 80 degree high is the month of January!  Mammoth had its warmest day Sunday with a high of 66 degrees.

The subtropical upper ridge that brought the unseasonable warm temps rolled right into Southern CA Sunday from off shore. This time of the year contrary to Summer, the thermal support for these kind of ridges is usually the Pacific, contrary to summer when its the desert. As a result the ridge is weakening quickly over the state.

The pattern this week is still considered a dry one, even though we may get some very light snowfall early Friday AM. Some changes in the upstream pattern will push a rather strong upper jet into the west coast, flattening our ridge in the eastern pacific. Lots of mainly high clouds, wind and yes, cooling will result. The models have been showing a system strong enough to push 500 MB heights low enough for some light snowfall early Friday morning. Whether or not we get some light snow with snow showers is not the most important point. Rather, its the cooling that results from the lowering of 500mb heights that will cool high and low temps at resort levels enough to enhance snow making capabilities on Mammoth Mt, this Friday through Saturday.

Our 21 day cycle began on the 8th and will end about month end. I expect the pattern to go into transition at months end. What it will transit to is not known at this time.  If you look at ECMWF weeklies for December, and the GFS EXT Ensemble, they all show a transition to another pattern.  Next week will give us forecasters a possible glimpse of where we are going…  In the meantime, it looks mainly dry through Thanksgiving.

 

Dr Howard and the Dweebs……………………:-)

PNA pattern setting up resulting in Ridge City for the West Coast this weekend….Well above normal temperatures expected….Cooler weather by the middle of next week…..

11-14-2021

 

Beautiful Sunday afternoon in town. 65 degrees and some very light breezes. A strong temperature inversion prevails.   As an example, the early morning low at 11,000 was 40 degrees. In the town of Mammoth 28 degrees at the visitors center, 33 at the Bishop AP and 21 degrees at Bridgeport.

Freezing Level was14,200 feet this AM.

A couple of short waves will flatten the current upper ridge this week. One Monday bringing lots of high clouds into Tuesday morning.  It will be a bit cooler, especially Tuesday.   More cloudiness expected later Wednesday afternoon into Thursday and other wave a little later in the week. Its very doubtful if well have any significant snowfall from these waves this week. The good news, is that it will cool down enough to resume snowmaking. The outlook is still dry through months end…..

Dr Howard and the Dweebs………………………:-)

 

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10:50AM Friday

CPC has La Nina as a moderate event now. Still shy of the strong event of 2020/2021

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The positive phase of the Pacific North American circulation pattern is setting up with above normal temperature’s expected this weekend. The core of the upper ridge does come into Southern CA Sunday with 500MB heights according to the ECMWF as high as 591DM.  The Freezing Level is expected to go as high as 14,300 over our area by Sunday.  This is a pattern we are all familiar with. It is dry and mild.  Snow making will come to a halt this weekend. Early next week the ridge does flatten and give way to a few weak weather systems. The result will be cloudiness increasing Monday with breezy cooler weather expected Tuesday through Thursday. The chances of any precip at this time are slim and none.  However, with that said, better snowmaking weather will develop by the middle of next week and beyond.

Longer range in the week 2 period still has anomalous higher than normal heights at 500mb over our area. Although the upper ridge in the mean remains, there will still be weak shearing trofs or cut off lows that will tease the forecaster for time to time…Possibly through months end…..   I do expect the pattern to go into transition toward the end of the month. Both GEFS Ensembles and ECMWF weeklies, weeks 4 through 6 show some pretty good snow storms in their outlooks!!

High temperatures this weekend in Mammoth will likely reach the mid 60s with lows in the mid 30 and low 40s

Bishop will experience low 80s by weeks end.

 

Dr Howard and the Dweebs…………………….:-)

 

Weak AR moving out this morning with Moderate amounts of Snowfall on Mammoth Mt….Strong Ridging expected Wednesday through Sunday with Above Normal Temps expected

11-10-21 Update

Total Snowfall as reported by Mammoth Mt 9 to 11 inches;

Pattern change underway with Upper High off shore building into California this weekend with much warmer than normal temperatures expected.    The upper ridge is expected to begin flattening Tuesday as a weak extension of the westerlies shifts south. The pattern middle of next week suggests cooling, clouds and breezy weather. A few showers are possible.   “At the moment”, there is little in the models suggesting a significant storm before Thanksgiving.

 

Dr Howard and the Dweebs…………………….:-)

 

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Our weak AR now moving out of our region leaving up to a foot of snow in the higher elevations. The Dweebs will update on the final tally later.  There was one to three inches of wet snow in the residential areas of Mammoth. this AM.

The weather will be fair with a warming trend through weeks end beginning Wednesday. Highs today in the 40s with highs in the low 60s this weekend.  Winds will be diminishing through out the day today and into Wednesday.

 

Over all, the forecast was somewhat of a bust as the QPF was all over the place for our area. One of the big reasons I believe was in the models handling of the deepening Trof north of Hawaii and resulting height rises west of Baja. This was always in the models, however, its timing was a bit quicker.  In the end, the results was less precip and a quicker exit as well as stronger height rises west of Baja, MX.  The 588DM iso height line pushes into Mammoth Saturday AM for an exceptionally nice mild day.  Highs in Bishop may hit low 80s as suggested a week ago.  Get your T times early!!

The week 2 outlook suggests a flattening of the long wave ridge and the westerlies shifting south again middle of next week for an increase of wind, cooling and clouds..  There is a short wave and upper jet that pushes into the Pacific NW next Tuesday and Wednesday. The upper jet slides mostly east while it shifts slightly south into far Northern CA, so maybe some showers up there later next week?

There are some operational runs that shift the short wave south enough to affect Central Ca but that is not the thinking at the moment. What is being considered is short wave length type amplification the week of thanksgiving and the “Possibility of a Great Basin Low with colder weather. Although there may be some light snowfall with this pattern, it is regarded as a dry pattern. The suggestion of a NNW Upper Jet over CA around Thanksgiving along the coast of CA will certainly bring a chill to our area and at some point, north winds for the Owens Valley.

Climate:

I thought it might be if interest to those that track La Nina to compare the IRI Oct 2021 to October 2020.  This La Nina is on track to be weaker. I like that. I hope we get some follow through of a robust MJO into the Central and Eastern Pacific….Wishful thinking.