Archive for year 2022

Cold Breezy weekend….But the last! Summer arrives this Tuesday and the Summertime Thunder starts the day after!

Latest ECMWF 12z run today Fathers Day has the cold upper trof that has been bringing below normal temps to Mono County and freeze conditions at night, moving out today. Another chilly day today is in process and another freeze tonight likely, at least for a few areas. Rapid warming is expected to begin Monday into Tuesday.

Again this is Winters last gasp!!  The Strong Troughs of Springs are done for CA!!

 

Welcome to Summer this Tuesday!  Longest day of the year!

First discussion for Summer;

Tropical storm Blas is weakening rapidly SSW off Cabo. Meanwhile a weak Trof will split off from the westerlies and form a weak upper level low late Tuesday off the Central CA coast near Paso Robles. Moisture from the remnant’s of Bals, spins up a subtropical jet with Mammoth, under the Front left Quad Wednesday with an active day of Thunder and lighting storms over the Sierra, both Wednesday and Thursday.. Please, all prey for no fires in the Sierra!!!!!!!!!!!  If your going into the back country, be very aware of this possibility, especially over the weekend after the storms are gone and the weather really warms up and the forest dry’s out!

Main Message from this update is that Summer arrives Tuesday and that Summer weather along with it well into July and August!

 

Dr Howard and the Dweebs………………..:-)

 

 

 

Winters Last Gasps are on their way…..One this weekend and the very last Fathers Day……Thereafter….Continental high sets up for the Summer…..

9:15 AM 6/16/2022

 

High temperatures reached the mid 70s in Mammoth Wednesday with similar highs expected today Thursday. A trough of low pressure was centered off the Oregon Coast this morning destined to dig through California over the weekend. Expect strong gusty winds developing later today and stronger winds in the 50 to 60MPH range for the Mammoth area Friday.

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The Dweebs are saying good by to the last of the migrating Trofs from the Gulf of AK over the next 10 days.  One this weekend that will bring gusty winds and about 15 degrees of cooling by Monday. Then the last one that moves through about fathers Day. That one may bring the last frost to the high county, climatically right on time!  Thereafter, the continental high sets up and all weather eyes will then be on SE flow, thunderstorms and hot temps for the Great Basin and Sierra!

 

Say good by to Winters Last Gasp as Summer is right on schedule!!

 

Dr Howard and the Dweebs………………………:-)

Current Pattern of Warming and Cooling with wind to continue a few more weeks before Spring’s slide into Summer is Permanent

 

Its interesting to note that the average high temperature for Mammoth now is 65 degrees and will move climatically up into the low 70s by Father’s Day. Our Last freeze is usually Fathers Day.  Over the next 5 days the MJO will be sailing through Phases 7/8 or out over the Western Pacific with borderline moderate AR for far Northern CA on the coast. This is usually associated with lots of high and mid level subtropical moistures at this time of year. (note; in the winter, this can often mean stronger AR episode’s) This weekend’s weather will be no exception with a little cooler weather, breezy conditions and lots of cloudiness, and a chance of showers Saturday night and Sunday.  The Dweebs see more transitory migrating weather systems, while keeping the upper jet to our north.  Not much cooling from these systems is expected as compared to the one that affected the Central Sierra over the Holiday weekend, but wind yes!

Looking at the ECMWF model, for week two, it brings in quite the heat wave to the far west around the 10th. The GFS on the other hand has good rising 500mb Heights earlier week 2.   This tells the Dweebs that next week could get pretty warm at some point with Bishop reaching up to 100 for the first time this year, next week. With all that said, it is unlikely to last as one more significant cool down is probably in the cards before we head into Summer.

 

Local Weather beginning with today will offer light breezes in the afternoon today with a more pronounced Zephyr Wednesday afternoon and evening and possibly Thursday. It will be sensibly warmer tomorrow Wednesday and Thursday as low 70s are expected, then cooling to the low to mid 60s by Saturday with lots of high clouds and yes…Wind!

 

The following week looks a lot warmer with more Summer like weather….

 

ENSO:

The CFS continues its trend in ending La Nina by the end of the year. The new updated IRI will be released on the 19th of June,  It will be interesting to see how all the other models chime in on ENSO.  The Dweebs would like to see La Nina gone and ENSO neutral conditions develop in December.  I think that would be encouraging for more water for California. Next Winter!

 

Dr Howard and the Dweebs……………………….:-)