Archive for April, 2022

Current Near Record Warmth to be followed by Dreaded NW Jet Monday PM…..Batten Down the Hatches!

8:00AM 4-11-22

Quick update for QPF

California Rivers Forecast Center bumped up the QPF this AM.

1.06 over Yosemite  So up to 10 inches to a foot a possibility now over the upper elevations of Mammoth Mt by Tuesday, The storm is cold and so Kuchera ratio’s used.

10 to 15 inches over Upper Elevations of Mammoth Mt by Tuesday AM.

5 to 7 in town…

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Sunday 12:30PM

High Wind Watch has been replaced by a High Wind Warning that goes into effect at 11:00AM Monday Morning.  Now is the time to secure all movable items in the yard throughout Mono and Inyo Countys, and especially the Crowley Lake, Aspen Springs Ranch and down wind. Strength of upper jet at 250MB is nearly 140 Knots and with WNW jet Down Sloping expected.  Winds may accelerate to hurricane force+ in gusts across highway 395 Monday Afternoon. Tree Damage, Roof damage possible in many areas. A High Wind Warning is hoisted for the Ownes Valley for the sametime period Monday, with highway 395 cross winds up to 80MPH in areas below canyons.

Precipitation:  With the upper jet having more of a WNW trajectory, major accumulations are not expected. The QPF forcasts have been trimmed back at bit today for the Monday and Tuesday AM storm with 7 to 9 inches possible over the crest,  and half of that at the Village.  However, this upcoming week will offer yet another windy storm with more snowfall. Being that antecedent conditions are not as warm, the winds are not excpected to be quite as strong as Mondays system and freezing levels are not as low. Additionally, this system will have better over-water trajectory and the odds of getting a foot or better seems more reasonble with the Thursday-Friday system.  The unsettled weather pattern may last into the weekend now and although Easter Sunday at this time looks fair, I would not bank on it.

A big point to be made is that skiing and boarding conditions will greatly improve with the two incoming storms this week!!!  But get it while its cold!!  Easter Weekend seems like a good time to cut up some freshies!!

Dr Howard and the Dweebs…………………………:-)

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3:30pm 4/9/22 update

The Storm for Monday and Tuesday still looks good, but with a twist.  Evidently the models have been trending wetter then they showed a few days ago…..Also Colder. A High Wind watch still looks good for Mono County Monday afternoon and night. However, the Owens Valley has been added to that Watch, beginning 11:00AM Monday.  Strong downsloping winds are expected along the eastern slopes of the sierra Monday Afternoon creating Hazardous driving conditions.  Strong Cross winds along Highway 395 Monday PM,  will potentially be strong enough to flip high profile tractor trailers with gusts to 80 MPH possible in wind prown areas..

QPF:   CA River forecast center is showing over an inch of water near Yosemite Monday and Tuesday and so up to a foot of snow is possible over the crest from this first storm.  By Tuesday 5:00AM, the freezing level is expected to lower to 1500 feet. Another possibly as wet or wetter system is getting progged for the second half of the new week…..Beginning as early as Wednesday Night.   Another Foot?   Still looking at a fair Easter Sunday at this time.

 

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While Yesterday felt like an early June day, near record warmth is occuring in many areas of our state and Nevada.  An anomaliously cold trough will pay the state a visit Monday into Tuesday, creating strong temperatures gredients and potentially, strong downsloping winds for the eastern slopes of the high country,  The NWS has hoisted a high wind watch for Mono County along the highway 395 corridor beginning at 1:00PM, Monday. This time of the year, a NW upper jet with its front RT exit region, can really play havoc on our region.  The storm which will provide light snowfall Monday into Tuesday is expected to lower the freezing level to 2,000 over Yosemite, at 5:00AM Tuesday Morning. There is another weaker trof expected the following Thursday for a bit of cooling a slight chance of snowshowers, and 1st look at the Easter Holiday weekend looks a bit breezy Saturday with sunny skys and a bit warmer than normal temps…..IE., A beautiful weekend.

 

Dr Howard and the Dweebs………………:-)

Nice Warm Weekend with Breezy Weather late and early next week….Mini Heat Wave Mid Week……

April 3rd

Just a quick update

Longer range outlook looking quite promising for chilly unsettled weather beginning about the 10th and continuing for a week.  Questions continue to be where the Trof axis is going to set up.  Gfs has it plenty far west for good April type storm, while Euro is a bit too Far East for good snow producer.  More later on this as the pattern hits just after Easter Sunday.

 

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Outside of some high clouds….This weekend will be very nice with high clouds and temps in the mid to upper 50s.  Mammoth winds will be up a bit and so it will be breezy Sunday into Monday but not cooler.  Amplifacation out over the pacific builds upper 500mb heights to anomalious levels next week, witch then progresses into Calfornia by mid week.   This sets the stage for some of the warmest weather so far this year. It just may hit 70 in Mammoth by Friday a week away!.  (Upper 80s in Bishop)  Lows at night now in the 30s will dip to freezing early then well into the upper 30s mid week.

 

Pattern:

Progressive with the upper jet favoring the Pacific NW into Monday next week. It then pushes upward into British Columbia Tuesday into early Wednesday. It then retreates to off the entire North American Coast Wednesday night into Friday the 8th.  The following weekend has the strong upper height anomaly pushing east from the far west with high clouds returning to CA and temps retreating that wekend.  Early the following week, the weather will become unsettled with wind, cooling and possibly showers.  High temps this weekend in the mid to upper 50s then low 60s by Tuesday and mid to upper 60s Wednesday though Friday, lows at night in the 30s.

 

ENSO:

Obviously there was a head-fake to climate scientests this past winter as La Nina was supposed to fade this Spring.   What actually happened, was a Kelvin Wave appearently faded in Late February and March with sub surface SSTs cooling between 140W and 170W. The demise of La Nina was supposed to occur over this Summer with the next EL Nino developing by the end of this year or during the WInter of 2023. That now has been pushed off timewise and we will have to get beyond “The Spring Barrier” to better understand when the “little girl” will leave.  In checking with some climate scientists, they indicated to me that it is not pertictulary unusual for La Nina to last three years.  However, 4 years would be unpresented based upon their comments.   So with that understood, La Nina should be leaving us at the latest, sometime in 2023, with the odds of an especially wet winter as early as 2023/24 Fall/Winter.  Just as a comment, We have wet La Ninas too.  However, La Ninas bias is always drier than normal for the southern half of CA.

For us in the high country, this is going to be an exceptionally dry summer. There is likley going to be horried forest fires in areas that have not burned yet. Locals should now stock up on HEPTA FAU filters for their homes and air purifier systems, KN 95 masks for our respiratory systems and just hope that many of the large burned areas of the forest already burned to the west and southwest of us, give us the protection we need. LIghting fires will be most concerning.  At the moment, the CFS, Climate Forecast System is showing a dry bias to AZ for the month of July. The ECMWF seasonal outlook will be out on the 5th of April.  So far it does not appear to be a wet monsoon season for the Desert Southwest.  With that said, dry based thunderstorms are the norm in the Eastern Sierra during the summer. We do not need monsoonal flow and dynamics to get thunderstorms. When it gets especially hot in July and August, heat spells are always followed by instability and dry afternoon thunderstorms. These are the primary fire-igniters of the forest.

 

Dr Howard and the Dweebs……………………….:-)