Mammoth Weather
Brought to you by Howard Sheckter
Brought to you by Howard Sheckter
QPF:
1. CRFC HAS .11 AND .05 FOR THE HUNTINGTON LAKE AREA THIS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY RESPECTIVELY. HPC 5 DAY HAS A SWATH OF .5 TO .7 QPF FROM ABOUT YOSEMITE TO SEQUOIA THROUGH TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK.
2. 5 DAY PLAYERS: LOOKING AT THE NEW FRIDAY 12Z WRF
TODAY FRIDAY, MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE OVER THE AREA IN RESPONSE TO THE CHANNELING BETWEEN TO THE CUT OFF STL OFF THE SC COAST AND THE UPPER HIGH OVER SOUTHERN AZ. THE UPPER LOW IS WEST OF SAN DIEGO. SPOKES OF VORTICITY WILL SPIN OFF THE UPPER CENTER INTO CA TODAY PROVIDING SOME LIFT FOR SHOWERS LATER TODAY.
SATURDAY:
THE UPPER SUB-TROPICAL LOW REMAINS QUASI STATIONARY THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING OFF THE SC COAST UNTIL SATURDAY NIGHT. A DEFORMATION ZONE OF SURFACE CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE SO-CAL LOW WILL PROVIDE SOME BETTER FORCING AND INSTABILITY OVER THE SIERRA SATURDAY PM, FOR A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
THEN LATE SATURDAY NIGHT, THE UPPER LOW BEGINS TO OPEN AND LIFT NE INTO CALIF0RNIA, AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING UPPER TROF. A MAJOR CHANGE IN THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL THEN BEGIN AS A LONG WAVE TROF APPROACHES THE WEST COAST, PUTTING AN END TO A HOT SUMMER LIKE WEEK OF UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPS.
THIS TROF WILL COMBINE WITH THE UPPER LOW, CURRENTLY TO THE SOUTH OF US, LIFTING ITS REMAINS; INCLUDING ITS MOISTURE, INSTABILITY AND UVV INTO THE SIERRA BEGINNING EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. AT THE MOMENT, THE TRACK OF THE DYNAMICS OF THE EJECTING LOW IS FAVORED OVER THE CENTRAL SIERRA SUNDAY. THIS IS WHY, HPC IS FAVORING THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL SIERRA AND THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN SIERRA FOR THE BULLS-EYE OF PRECIP.
AS THE UPPER SPLITTING TROF DIGS SOUTH INTO CA MONDAY MORNING…WEST WINDS WILL DEFINITELY PICK UP OVER THE SIERRA CREST IN THE MAMMOTH AREA UNTIL THE CUT OFF PROCESS COMPLETES. THE SPLIT THIS TIME IS OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA, WITH MOST OF THE ACTION OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN SIERRA. IN ADDITION TO SHOWERS IN THE HIGH COUNTRY. THE TREND NOW IS TO DIG THIS SYSTEM A BIT FURTHER WEST NOW WITH A COLD CORE CUT-OFF OVER CENTRAL/SOUTH CENTRAL CALIFORNIA MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY AM NEXT WEEK WITH THE 700MB UPPER LOW NEAR BISHOP TUESDAY AM. THIS SHOULD HAVE THE EFFECT OF RECIRCULATING TS/RW’S HERE AND THERE WITH “UPSLOPE PRECIP POSSIBLE”. SOME SNOW IS POSSIBLE IN THE HIGH COUNTRY WITH THIS PATTERN WITH SEVERAL INCHES POSSIBLE BETWEEN MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH TEMPS ARE HEADED FOR THE UPPER 40S BY TUESDAY PM AT 8000FT. BY TUESDAY AM 12Z, 700MB TEMPS WILL BE ABOUT 0C OR EVEN SLIGHTLY BELOW THERE AFTER. SNOW LEVEL ABOUT 7500 TUESDAY AM?
NEXT WARM UP WILL BEGIN ABOUT THURSDAY, THEN INTO THE FOLLOWING WEEKEND….. DEPENDING UPON HOW QUICKLY EITHER THE LOW FILLS OR MOVES EAST. THE EARLY PART OF THE FOLLOWING WEEK MAY AGAIN REACH THE LOW 70S…
DR HOWARD AND THE DWEEBS………………..:-)