Series of Storms headed for Central and Southern California…Wet Pattern but no El Nino……

Drought Stricken California will likely pick up a Bonanza of rainfall next week, as the next series of storms hits predominantly the southern half of the state. The first in the series hits the South Central Coast Tonight with the focus unfortunately on many of the the burn areas. Being that the storm is coming in predominantly negative tilt, there will be a lot of Convection, which means Thunderstorms with localized areas of heavy rain. The focus areas along the coast and inland seem to be from Malibu NW to Venture County and just northwest. However, most areas will get their fair share. Folks that live within and below the burn scar areas should pay close attention to the statements from the National Weather Service.

C7 day totals issued by the WPC this morning showed between 4 to 7

inches of rain over a 7 day period in the coastal mountains North and East between Malibu to East of Pt Conception.

EL Nino:

Although the storm track appears to be coming in from a more southerly latitude, there is actually a split in the flow due to ridging over the Rockies that is forcing the storm track into Southern CA. That will begin to relax by the middle of next week. This will allow storms to hit the Central Sierra better mid week. As far as El Nacho goes, there is little or no evidence that El Nino has anything to do with the rain that is coming to Southern California over the next week. Why? Just take a look at the area between the Dateline and south of California to and along the equator. There is little evidence of large scale coupling of significant convection over the Nino Regions and the overlying atmosphere. The convection is average at best. Only a pocket along the dateline. In my opinion, these are just good old fashion west coast January storms! BTW..Expecting Mammoth Mt to pick up another 4 to 6 feet mid week. Snow is possible for parts of thr Owens Valley as well the upcoming week,

Dr Howard and the Dweebs………………….:-)

First in Series of Sierra Storm drops 16 to 24 inches of snow Saturday and Sunday with Winter Storm Warnings hoisted for Sunday afternoon and night….Dangerous Travel conditions expected for the Trans-Sierra highway later this afternoon and tonight as heavy snow and high winds combine for full on blizzard in many areas of Highway…..

6:20pm Update: Snowfall rates have increased in the Town of Mammoth with about 4 inches of new on the ground. We are expecting between 1 and 2 feet between the Town of Mammoth and the Mammoth Crest by Morning.

Winds:
The prime time for high winds will be after 9:00-11:00 PM as precipitation rates in Mono County diminish and simulated soundings show inversions lowering to near mountain top level. This creates a better opportunity for downsloping. Weather Balloon Soundings indicate 70+ KTs below the inversion, so local gusts in wind-prone areas along Highway 395 (South of Coleville) could reach 80 mph.

From 10:00AM Sunday; The Village at Mammoth has picked up about 16 inches of snow since 10:00AM Saturday….Snowfall amounts blew through the forecasts of less than a foot. Mammoth Mt picked up between 16 and 24 inches during the same time period.

Next weather system is associated with the dreaded NW jet. However, there is enough westerly bias to bring us a period of heavy snow over a 12 hour period to warrant Winter Storm Warnings for this afternoon through the night.

Not only will this storm bring a period of heavy snow, but more importantly very strong and life threating winds that will cause blizzard conditions late today and tonight along with zero visibility. Although some roads will likley close in exposed areas later today and tonight….do not plan on any travel without, warm clothing, warm blankets, water and food. Remember in zero visibility, you can become disorientated very quickly. If stranded in blizzard conditions…stay in your vehicle, do not wander out…

Forecast Models Still Struggling with Split flow over or just west of California…Trend of late is for storms to be more consolidated as they come in with SSW flow offering high end moderate precipitation totals….. A winter Weather Advisory has been issued for Mono County beginning at 10:00AM Saturday….to 10AM Sunday…

Updated Saturday AM 5:00AM:

Officially our forecast area is under a winter weather advisory for Saturday at 10:00AM through Sunday 10:00AM. However, the models did come in a bit wetter this afternoon. So in order to keep from yo-yoing the winter weather advisory will remain, Nevertheless, I believe that it is quite possible to reach winter storm criteria within this time frame here in the Town of Mammoth near the Village (12 inches).

Mammoth Mt by Sunday noon, there could be up to two feet over the crest.. The Sunday afternoon into Monday morning storm is more focused to our north. However, it is highlighted by the dreaded NW upper jet. So it will be especially windy. Surprisingly, the WFO forecast is for another 6 to 10 inches of snow Sunday night for Mammoth MT and some 3 to 7 inches in town. Local Blizzard conditions may result from the wind storm expected Sunday night….

___________________________________________________________________________________

Winter Storm Watch has been downgraded to Winter Weather Advisory. However, Mammoth Mt still expecting the upper end of Moderate amounts as the criteria is 6 to 18 inches in a 24 hour period.

It will be unsettled Sunday and Sunday night with wind….Snow or Snow Showers and colder temps. Expect Gradual Improving conditions later Monday afternoon into Tuesday Morning. A new wetter storm moves in Tuesday night into Thursday.

12:45pm Update RE: EURO MODEL….European Model is onboard now with GFS model for the mid week system with more consolidated upper flow, making it another strong Moderate to possibly Heavy snow producer for Wednesday and Thursday next week….

From Thursday AM; A series of Storms is headed for the high county beginning this weekend. The initial storm will he highlighted by two distant areas of lift. The first one will lift the warm sector with a cold front Saturday with the heaviest precipitation rates expected Saturday afternoon into the early evening hours. The second portion riding into the cold air will be more showery in nature with lighter snowfall accumulation’s expected Sunday…. The combination of the two storms is expected to bring between 1 to 2 feet of snowfall to Mammoth Mt by Monday AM. The Town of Mammoth will see all snowfall from beginning to end as the freezing level will begin about 7,000.
Thus the snow level will start at or below 6000 feet. Around a foot of snow is expected Saturday into Sunday for the town. There is likley to be travel restriction’s along highway 395 Saturday and Saturday night. Strong gusty winds with periods of heavy snowfall will make travel hazardous. All vehicle’s should at least carry chains for the trans-sierra portion of highway 395 this weekend.

The outlook for next week continues to improve for the prospects of significant additional snowfall. The New 12Z Thursday GFS model, has the following mid week system coming in much more consolidated now, similar to this Saturday’s storm. Although as of this post, the Dweebs have not seen the new European’s, Thursday 12Z run to compare with. This morning’s 12Z GFS is very encouraging as it has a wetter scenario due to a deeper fetch from the southwest and a cyclonically curved upper jet. This mid week storm was expected to split with weaker results due to the splitting process. The more consolidated scenario is capable of delivering several feet of snowfall if it is correct.

The Dweebs will keep all of you updated on these changing weather forecasts over the next week….

Dr Howard and the Dweebs…………………:-)