Another Cool Dry week on tap with the possibility of some light snow or snow showers Friday afternoon and Sunday Night….Major Pattern Change Expected for North America toward the end of Week Two…

Wednesday the 19th of Feb

It is a beautiful Morning in the high country with little if any wind top to bottom.  Today’s temps will be in the mid 40s in town and in the 30s on Mammoth Mt. Very little wind is expected….Nights in the 20s.

This Mornings 500mb/250MB  maps show a SW /NE upper ridge some 700 mi west of Mammoth, that is slowly progressive. The highest heights are over British Columbia with a weak branch of westerlies underneath, weakly confluent with subtropical jet along the CA/MEX border.  Further west is a short wave trof that is approaching the upper ridge some 1400 mi west of the sierra crest.  The Trof is progged to split over the next twenty four hours . By Thursday afternoon, a closed center spins up off the Northern CA coast as the system digs south toward LA off-shore. The system energizes the subtropical jet as it interacts with it. A weak jet-let from the GOA digs the cut off SE into the Subtropical Jet where it is carried east through Southern CA Saturday, while it dampens out to the east.

The prind point here, is that it will bring light to low end moderate amounts of rain to Southern CA Saturday. The bulls-eye looks to be on the west side and over the top of the Tehachapi’s. The northern portions of the Southern Sierra will get some up-slope, as well as Mammoth Mt on Saturday.  Mammoth Mtn is mainly to the north of this circulation. It is possible to get an inch or two from this system between Friday night and Saturday afternoon. Expect clearing skies Saturday night…  there after….The upper flow becomes northwesterly Sunday with breezy conditions developing later in the day. Theext system is associated with a strong polar jet that digs SE from Eastern British Columbia, through Utah on Monday. We will be on the anticyclonic side of the upper jet and so expect cooling and moderate wind over the upper elevations. Breezy weather may develop through the Owens Valley. This is a dry WX system for the eastern slopes of the sierra.  The off shore ridge is progressive as it moves over the State of CA. The following Wednesday will be fair, dry with warmer temperatures.

What is important is what follows the following week in what is touted as a major pattern change by the CPC heading into March……

Stay tuned…..The Dweebs will update you on the possibilities of precipitation as soon as the new pattern takes shape….

 

Dr Howard and the Dweebs…………………………………:-)

 

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From Climate Prediction Center this afternoon;

Major Pattern Change over North America expected later Week 2. (During the first week of March)

The change is initiated by the Eastern pacific ridge of high pressure building north over Alaska. The details still have to be worked out…..

 

The Dweeber……

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Another cool dry week is expected with below normal temperatures. High temperatures will range from the low to mid 40s this week with over night lows in the teens and twenties. The next weather system to affect our area will be Friday and Friday night.  Saturday looks fair and a little warmer. Sunday’s weather will be breezy by the afternoon with increasing winds over the crest. This inside slider will bring snow showers Sunday night into Monday AM. it will turn cold next Monday, with highs in the 30s.

The outlook shows little hope for a meaningful storm for the remainder of this month. March still looks to be more active as meteorological Spring begins….

 

Dr Howard and the Dweebs…….:-)

Northerly Flow Aloft will continue this week…..Although next Sunday’s System the end of the week is digging a bit more to the West…Euro still keeps enough of the system overland for it to be pretty dry….

February 14th….Happy Valentine day!!

I am not going to post anymore this week so have a nice holiday…..

Some thoughts……

“March Madness” is not only a term used in college basketball.  It is a term that I use in climatology for the month of March.  There is a reason why March comes in like a lion and leaves like a lamb, as a full strength pacific jet barreling east through the north pacific in February and into March, weakens the second half of the month of March.  We get lots of cut off lows later in March and into April off the west coast. And Stronger CAPE!!…  Convective Available Potential Energy!  The sun is higher in the sky and the convective process is increasing!

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I am sure that the anomalously stagnated convection over the tropics of the far western Indian Ocean had something to do with our extra cold January. After all, the -IOD was record breaking over the Indian Ocean and contributed to the very dry conditions, causing  massive fires in Queens Land, loss of life, property and all the little creatures that made up that beautiful area.

There are only 2 more weeks left of Meteorological winter, as March 1st is the first day of meteorological spring.  This has nothing to do with the Calendar or even astronomy.  It is simply that Winter is now on the wain….
From the CPC’s 6 to 10 day and 8 to 14 day outlooks, the last two weeks of February are forecasted to be quite dry.  This mornings GFS looked promising for a change early next week, however, the EURO as it ran on its heals, kept the pattern right where is has been, with the next system, deepening into the Great Basin. This will bring little weather other than cooling, snow showers and of course wind.  There was a teaser this morning of a small low off the Monterrey coast in last nights GFS run, but that idea has been shelved for the time being. Hopefully it will be back?


I have been looking for “the change”!  I was head faked last month when the MJO was forecasted to go from phase 7 to 8.   I waited as eagerly as the MJO was forecasted into 8 and the whole thing just fell apart in phase 7, left to die in the circle of death.  It was  disappointing but here we go again!

On the positive side, lets look at some teleconnection signals for early March, as if we are going to get some serious snowfall, it will have to come next month and April.

  • The MJO RMM1 and RMM2 Phase Space with the NCEP models, show an excursion into Phase 8 during week 2. That often, but as we know from last January, not always, can lead to the -EPO and -WPO teleconnection. IE high latitude blocking over AK, and/or the Bering Sea.  Blocking in that region often, but not always, leads to a storm track into CA in Winter or Spring.  It’s the amplification of the eastern pacific high, followed by retrogression, resulting in the under cutting of the westerlies into the west coast.  The most likely time for this to happen this time, is during the first week of March because of the forecast.
  • Support:
  • Looking at the newly updated ECMWF weeklies ensemble just released this afternoon.   There is a transition similar to the one discussed above.
  • The teleconnection charts show an -EPO in the EC Weeklies ensembles, March 3rd through the 6th. Additionally there is a -WPO teleconnection which develops blocking further west February 29th through the 12th of March. Furthermore, the -AO goes negative, according to the EC weeklies, March 3rd through the 6th briefly, (High Pressure over the Arctic) forcing more cold air south. These are all positive signs. that may lead to the undercutting of the pacific jet into California, during that first week of March. The week 1 and 2 models have not picked up on it yet. Keep you fingers crossed for the first week of March turning wet for CA.

In the meantime, have a great Washington’s Birthday holiday!

 

Dr Howard and the Dweebs……………………..:-)

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February 11th update:

Pattern of persistence looks likely to continue for the next few weeks, with no sign of change before the very end of the month.  Today’s CFSv2 Forecast of Weekly Climate Anomalies show the 500mb mean negative height anomaly centered over the Great Basin and Rockies, pretty much where it has been most for the winter. At the same time, the Eastern Pacific high is nosed into CA, preventing storms from moving on shore  Furthermore, there is good MJO support for this pattern with phases 6 and 7.  Additionally, looking at the 500mb European Weekly means from yesterday, it is apparent that the same long wave positions are likely, pretty much through the end of the month.

The good news is that there is a big change in the pattern forecasted by both the EC and the CFSv2, for the first two weeks of March. The Euro, puts the long wave between CA and Nevada which opens the door to the pacific for wet storms. The CFSv2 shows even more details with a -EPO. (Blocking High pressure over Alaska and the GOA), forcing an undercutting pattern of the Westerlies into CA.

The details should begin to show up in the Week 2 models, by the 3rd week of February if this is going to happen.

Keeping good thoughts!

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Strong Gusty ENE winds raked the upper elevations Sunday with gusts to 145 MPH recorded. The upper low was over Northern Baja Monday AM and was expected to kick east Monday night across the south and Midwest this week. The system brought highs in Mammoth in town down to the low 20s Sunday and was followed by lows in the teens.

The Eastern Pacific High continues to be amplified off shore at about 135 to 140 west.  It has been there for several weeks. This initiates a dry pattern over the far west, but has been good for the Rocky Mountain ski areas. Weather systems have been dropping south over the Western Great Basin then splitting with the bottom of the trofs spinning up to the south of us.

OUTLOOK:

This looks to be another dry week. High temps will moderate by mid-week. However, another chilly inside slider brings colder temps, and possible snow showers by the weekend. There was a short wave that was digging a bit more to the west this Sunday, according to this mornings GFS operational guidance. That if verifies, it would bring light accumulation on Sunday. (3-6+ inches)  A lot depends upon the track of the Sunday Short wave. Again, the GFS this morning seems to want to develop it a bit more to the west. However the EURO is not that convincing. So unless the EC becomes more in sync, I am staying with persistence.  (IE Dry)

Have a great week and if the pattern becomes more encouraging the next few days for the end of the week, the Dweebs will give you the details on that.

 

Dr Howard and the Dweebs…………………………..:-)

WX pattern once again to revert to one of January…..Cold Dry and Breezy……Some light snow possible next week

No surprises today as another in a series of northerly sliders heads for CA Saturday night. It seems that the pattern of January continues with more cold, Dry, Breezy weather ahead. There is a slight change in the trajectory. At least early on with the systems dropping south into the Great Basin before backing west over the central sierra. this does not mean any meaningful snow, just less windy than the last system here in Southern Mono County. The short wave that drops south Saturday night will spin up and back up over Mono County Sunday, then head south off the Southern CA coast. Once over water, it will begin to induce showers for the San Diego and Northern Baja areas along with Arizona.

After moderating temperatures this week, another cold week is ahead next week.

 

This pattern is not likely to change for 2 weeks…..