The End is Near!……That is the end of the Big February storms….Next week looks dry and cold……

Wednesday Evening….

 

So Far about 8 inches of the wet stuff has fallen on the snow plott at the main lodge. With about 2.75 inches of water EQ.  Pretty Wet!

As far as the storm….It has barely started!   What we have had is warm air advection without any vertical motion to speak of.  Tomorrow, the vertical motion in the atmosphere will begin, especially later in the morning….and watch what happens….It will be quite serious by about Lunch Time!  Then heavy snow all afternoon with the first cold trof lifting the AR.   Another colder trof comes in Friday morning for another big snow day!!

We still have some 7 to 8 inches of water to squeeze….

 

The Dweeber….

 

 

 

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Tuesday AM……can you smell the pineapples yet?

Latest guidance from the GFS shows some 9+ inches on the west side of South Central Sierra. So 8 to 9 feet probably at 10000 Feet, considering what snowfall ratios will be over all.

Updated.…California Rivers Forecast Center shows 9.02 inches at Huntington Lake, much of which falls within a 24 hours period. Blue Canyon over the Northern Sierra shows 9.06 inches storm total. So no real Bulls-eye from the southern sierra to the northern sierra.
From this morning, the WPC had updated their QPF to as high as 9 inches over the west side of our sierra. Our snow level on Wednesday will fluctuate between 7000 and 8000 feet. Any rain that falls in town, will be absorbed by the cold dry snowpack in place. In that the there is enough QPF over the weekend for Snow to Water ratios in the 12 to 13:1 range at the end of the storm….., odds are that this is going to be close to a 100 inch storm above 10,000  with a higher moisture content than the Feb 6th system. Well see what Mammoth Mt reports Monday AM for storm total.

Today is your last day to create more snow storage…..

Locals should have plenty of supplies on hand in the case of power outages. Bring enough dry wood in…in the case it rains.
Very strong winds from an angry upper jet is expected Thursday…..Again power outages are possible

Total snow fall from the storms by the end of the weekend over Mammoth Mountain is likely to tally in the 8 to 10 foot range. In town another 3 to 5 feet at 8000 feet is possible by Sunday night, as a colder storm is likely after the wet one.
Next week will be cold and much dryer…..and possibly continue dry through months end…

Dr Howard the the Dweebs..

Mammoth Braces for yet another storm…This time it will be wet with moisture flowing NE from the Hawaiian Islands followed by Colder snow on Thursday…..Pattern to remain mostly active throught he weekend with weaker storms….then cold inside slider pattern setting up next week…

Abundant moisture is one again headed for the Eastern Sierra as a storm from the Gulf of Alaska reaches back and phases with a Kona Low north of Hawaii.  This pattern has been in the cards for well over a week now, and in some cases, there are still many unanswered questions,.

  1. Where will the Bullseye be for the most precip over the Sierra?
  2. How fast will the snow turn to rain and vice versa. The pattern is highlighted by the infamous Atmospheric River, foretold by the MJO over a week ago.  For those that are interested in what the Atmospheric river is and does, SEE:  https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/arportal/about/

 

This Atmospheric River is especially important to Mammoth, as there is such a deep snowpack now. Any extra weighting on local roofs is especially concerning. The snow forecasted for Tuesday night will be highlighted by warm air advection precipitation. Warm moist air over-riding a cold air mass in place. The lift comes from the sierra and the dome of the pre-existing cold air. This generally is accompanied by steady light to possibly moderate precipitation here at 8000 feet. As the day goes on Wednesday, precipitation rates are likely to increase. If heavy snowfall continues in the high country Wednesday, it is possible that the snowfall may not turn to rain, in which case more snowfall could accumulate here in town then expected. I’ll have another update in the Morning….

 

The storm is capable to bring between 2 and 5 feet of new snowfall

 

Long Range:

The Weekend looks unsettled with snow showers and colder than normal temps..

 

Next week will be much colder than normal with an inside slider pattern developing. IE. Snow showers with highs in the 20s and lows in the single digits and teens….

Mammoth Still digging out from 5 to 6 feet in town…A couple of more storms are on the way…..Another 2 to 3 feet possible for Mammoth Mt over the weekend……MJO Drums are beating the AR Snare for later next week over the Southern Sierra and Southland……

 

Sunday February 10th

 

On the road today Sunday……….just a quick couple of the notes…

We’re getting closer to the mid week period and the AR is definetly trending more toward the Central and Southern Sierra for the upcoming week.  The AR gets energized by a cold short wave coming from the Gulf of AK which stretches southwest and picked up energy from a Kona Low…Currenly north of the Hawaiian Islands. This is the source of the subtropical fetch that will combine with a colder more dynamic system, as the moisture approaches the central west coast. What the GFS solution suggests is to leave enough of the Kona energy intact so that short wave #2 or #3 can pick up additional moisture later in the week for an additional AR that following weekend.  I have not seen the new ECMWF..so I do not know if this is a reasonable outlook….. Needless to say,   Givin the possibility of an additional AR….the QPF is quite high on this mornings GFS run through the end of this week.   The mid week storm is close enough in time to say that the Moutain has another good 3 to 5 feet coming mid week.  This is going to be a warmer storm and so the snow level my go to 7500 feet by Wednesday afternoon…..more later…

 

Dr Howard and the Dweebs..,.,,,😳

 

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Yes…Its true!  Just as you thought it was safe to go out side again another couple of storms are on the way. Winter Storm Warnings are hoisted by the NWS beginning at 4:00PM Friday through 10:00PM Sunday. For the Town, the combination of the two storms with the 2nd one Saturday night and Sunday being the colder and strongest, some 8 to 16 inches is expected. For Mammoth Mt,  between 2 and 3 feet.

These two weather systems will bullseye the Northern Sierra best with Kirkwood getting the better shot! Nevertheless we will not complain with another 2 to 3 feet headed our way atop Old Woolly!  Expect high temps in town in the mid 20s with lows in the mid teens…..

Next week brings the possibility of the AR for parts of CA.  As touted 5 days ago, it favors Southern CA, however, the details have to be worked out…..  For the most part, the storm will become warmer, before it turns colder again…The Southern Stream becomes confluent with the northern stream, so this is a heavy snow pattern for the Sierra.

I will not update until Monday unless I can’t stand it! 🙂

Here is a portion of the post for the extended outlook from a forecaster at WSFO-RENO at 2:00PM THURSDAY

A large scale high pressure anomaly continues to strengthen in the northern Pacific Ocean with a corresponding large scale trough over the western U.S. during the second half of next week. This will keep the door open for more strong storms to drop out of the
Gulf of Alaska and into the Sierra. During the same time the sub-tropical jet is forecast to strengthen over Southern California. This setup could allow for warm pacific moisture to combine with cold Alaskan air as a deep trough digs into the west coast. As the
system is currently being advertised by computer simulations, this is one of the Sierra`s classic heavy snow patterns. With both the sub-tropical and polar jets forecast to meet in California the storms will be very dynamic. This can mean a few different things, including that predictability can be challenging, especially when it comes to snow levels. It can also mean rapid heavy accumulations of snow. The current forecast is for snow levels to jump up as the system makes landfall and then rapidly drop again as cold air moves into the region. But, like I said, this is one of the areas where a lot of change could be possible in the forecast. There is still a good deal of uncertainty this far out, especially for down here in the valleys. But for the Sierra, it seems likely they will again be measuring snow in feet.

 

Dr Howard and the Dweebs………………………………