Mild Weather with seasonal temperatures to continue through Saturday….Then cooler weather arriving with light snowfall mid to late Sunday morning through Monday with cold unsettled weather through much of next week…

Friday 8:00 AM Update

 

The only change in the forecast from below is that the Freezing level is now forecasted to begin lower in the Mammoth Area. At Yosemite, 8,400 feet at 4:00 AM but drops to 6100 by 10:00 am. The snow level is typically 1000 to 1500 feet lower than the freezing level.  Thus this storm will be all snow from beginning to end for the Town of Mammoth Lakes. Light amounts are still predicted; 2 to 4 inches by Monday AM… with 4 to 8 inches over Mammoth Mt.  It will be exceptionally windy Saturday night and Sunday.

 

Dr Howard and the Dweebs……………………….:-)

 

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A continuation of mild weather is likely through Saturday with windy conditions developing Saturday afternoon into the night. Highs will be in the 40s Friday and Saturday with lows in the teens and 20s. The next pattern change, appears to be one of a fragmentation of the jet stream.  The upper jet is split and fragmented in several places. Additionally, the upper flow associated with the point in time of precipitation is southerly. This all adds up to a pretty wimpy storm. Snowfall estimates are not anything special with 4 to 8 inches possible on the mountain Sunday into Monday AM and 2 to 4 inches in town the same period. The Freezing level will be about 9000 Sunday morning into Early afternoon which would suggest a snow level of about 7500 feet in Mammoth. The snow level will lower through out the day and night, so lower elevations along 395 will have the possibility of a few inches of snow as well by morning.

 

Once this cold trough sets up, it will be cold with periods of snow showers through Christmas day….  In this point in time, the Dweebs do not see a major storm on the horizon yet….

 

High temps next week will be in the low to mid 20s with lows in the single digits and teens…………..

 

 

Dr Howard and the Dweebs………………..

Colder temperatures will begin the new week followed by some Snow Showers Wednesday….Next Significant storm expected Late Saturday night….

UPDATE THIS AFTERNOON>>>>>>>>>>>>>

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12-17-2019 1:35pm Update

New 12z Euro today shows less emphasis on the Sunday storm now as the upper flow becomes too southerly to do much good. It is the secondary short wave (Tuesday) on its back side that is closer to the coast with the upper flow that is more “natural” to the sierra that counts. So today update reflects the second storm next week that appears to be a better snowfall producer than the 1st.  There is another wave for Christmas Eve that may produce additional snowfall.  All in all, I believe that it it will take a few more days for all this to work out for better model consensus.

Only other issue that has recently popped up is the MJO now projected with respectable amplitude into Phase 6/7; the end of the year into next year. (end of week 2) Some of the composites look wet for Southern CA and the Desert Southwest.

This will be interesting to watch develop….

 

The Dweeber……………….:-)

 

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Update:

  1. Wednesday system has not changed….Pretty weak. Just showers Wednesday
  2. Sunday through Wednesday system
    a. Front looks good but cold air is diving south down the coast for a storm with southerly flow.  Not good for a major snow producer. At the Moment, I am expecting 1 Foot Plus by Christmas. Will update later with any model change.
  3. The biggest change today is with the 12Z Euro Vs the GFS.  The Euro has a good storm Thursday night into Friday the 27th. Using Hovmoller timing tool, surface bomb O’geneses occurs on the 22nd off Japan. based upon the timing tool, expect storm to move in Thursday night the 26th. The 12Z gfs has nothing!  🙂

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The Weak Subtropical fetch that developed Friday worked out the way the Dweebs expected. The QPF with it was about .5 and Mammoth Mt reported some 6 to 7 inches of snow, storm total at the Main Lodge. The Forecast of between 1 and 3 inches in town was spot on as well. Looking down the road weather wise this week,  The cold air behind the belt of westerlies that pushed through last night left some chilly temperatures. . Expect highs temps to begin the new week in the low 30s with lows in the single digits then teens.  The next weather system for Wednesday does not have a lot going for it.  The upper flow with the Small Trof is from the south (no orographic’s) and the paltry upper level wave has only a 85 Knot upper jet. The Dweebs do not expect any more than a dusting…..

Hemispheric Pattern:

Looking at the the EC ENS, the Northern American PV is located north of the Arctic Circle along 110 W and a long wave Trof is off the west coast at about 140W and “negative tilt”. The upper flow across the pacific is de-amplified.  Further de-amplification is expected through mid week with the long wave ridge position near the dateline. Beyond mid week, the upper flow amplify s again. This is in response to some energy coming off Japan with a surface low spinning up. There is some question this morning on the timing of the storm for the end of this week. For what ever it is worth, the Euro shows QPF of about an 1.00 to 1.50 and the GFS much wetter this morning with over 3 inches of qpf.   We all want another storm before Christmas, but got to get it right!

 

Another update in a few days…..

Dr Howard and the Dweebs……………………………:-)

 

 

 

Moist belt of westerlies to push into high country Thursday night..initially rain then snow to follow…

A moist belt of westerlies will bring light rain and high elevation snow to the high country Thursday night and Friday, followed by colder weather over the weekend. The snow level will rise above 9500 feet Friday. However, as the belt moves south, Colder air with lowering snow levels will follow over the weekend. Overall, for the souther part of the central sierra, precip amounts are very unimpressive with 5 day totals of qpf up to .50 for mammoth. High temps Friday in mammoth will be in the low 40s  Cool to the mid 30s Saturday then upper 20s Sunday and Monday. This does not look like a plowable storm this weekend.  1 to 3 inches in town.

 

Climate:

Four significant modes of tropical variability can have an affect upon the weather in the mid latitudes. 1. Easterly Rossby waves, Kelvin waves, the Madden Julian oscillation and the IOD today. these air sea coupled waves can enhance or destroy the tropical convection  process.  El Niño and la nina are currently non players this year.  The drivers of our sub-seasonal climate this year is the record breaking IOD over the Indian Ocean.  Some of these aforementioned modes of tropical variability are currently constructively interfering with the IOD, thus enhancing an all ready highly convective system over the western Indian ocean, this appears to be the thriving force that will perpetuate a coming period of long wave troughing over the Easter Pacific in the coming weeks. It going to get stormy…