Forecast models now delay the demise of the West Coast Trof until the 9th….Transition to much warmer pattern now about mid week next week….

Our persistent west coast trough looks likely to hang on now through the end of this week. This will delay the normal lapse rates between Mammoth and Mammoth AP until early next week. Expect our afternoon and evening zephyr stronger than desired. High temps have been running mid to upper 60s at 8K with afternoon winds in the 15 to 25 mph range out in the meadow. As a comparison. Mammoth AP has been running mid to upper 70s for highs. As soon as the anomalous cool air over the upper elevations associated with this trof moves out, sensibly, there is going to be a huge warm up!  That will begin to take place by the middle of next week.

 

Expect daytime highs 65 to 70 at 8000 feet through July 4th. Nights in the upper 30s to mid 40s. It will be very dry.  The weekend looks a little warmer with the possibility of some very low 70s. Although the trough off shore is weaker, there will still be an enhanced zephyr. However, not as strong as what we have now.

 

Temperatures over Long Valley have been running in the mid to upper 70s this week. For July 4th, expect high temps to continue in this range. Early morning lows have been in the  30s and 40s. Don’t forget to bring a  jacket if staying for the fireworks show Thursday night. The temperature at showtime will be near 59 degrees. Winds will decouple by 9:00 pm so they should be lighter for showtime.

Expect a slightly warmer weekend…..

 

INTER-SEASONAL

Looking at the Euro and CPC outlook for this summer for our area for Precipitation and Temps, it is apparent that we will experience a Summer of much fewer thunderstorm days with daytime temperatures that will be more normal to below normal at 8000 feet. This means that it will be much less likely to experience our average highest temperature of 88 degrees this summer.

There is likely to be more weak west coast toughing and thus additional cool air in the higher elevation like now, leading to a much breezier summer. Expect an enhanced Zephyr, as compared to the summers of past 5 years. This zephyr will push the Mono County convergence zone well east of its usual position in the mean, and lead to a drier than normal Summer for the high country. As a note, we are not likely to be thunderstorm free, However, the number of thunderstorm days will be much less than normal, west of highway 395. It also appears that the AZ monsoon season will get a later start. As a note, the Southern Sierra will experience closer to a normal thunderstorm summer with more thunderstorm days than both the central and northern sierra.

 

Dr Howard and the Dweebs………………………………….:-)

Upper Trof off the west coast will weaken by weeks end and allow temperatures to rise next week with lighter afternoon winds…..Much warmer temperatures in our future the week following July 4th……Monsoon weather may accompany WX pattern between the 8th and 15th of July….

The quasi permanent upper Trof off the west coast is showing signs of weakening and disappearing the week following July 4th.   High pressure building over Alaska -(Negative EPO) will begin to stretch the upper trof more west-east this Sunday into next week allowing height rises over the far west (Warmer Temperatures) . This will bring a warm up for our region with highs in the 70s.  Both GFS and ECMWF have strong height rises resuming from south to north over CA the week following July 4th. Although the European model is slower to get rid of the trof through the 4th of July, both are in agreement in beginning the first period of 80s in Mammoth afterwords …..as early as the 7th of July.  Isolated thunderstorm action may begin of the summertime verity about the weekend of the 6th, with atmospheric modification and an increase in afternoon convection, the following week.

 

I will fine tune these dates early next week.   In the meantime, dry SW flow continues and that means dry dry dry….but sensibly warmer this Sunday and Monday.  Low  to mid 70s….

 

 

Dr Howard and the Dweebs………………….:-)

Warmer Days ahead as high pressure builds strongly into California, highs in Mammoth mid to upper 70s by mid week…..upper ridge shifts east Wednesday as heat related thunderstorms develop here and there…it will be a bit cooler into the following weekend..

Looks like the idea of winter weather going more directly into a Summer is becoming more of a reality in the weather charts.  Periods of strong heights rises show up in several periods weeks one and two. It looks to be a mix of sunshine… some periods of afternoon thunder as periodic weak trofs come through the mean ridge position. Temperatures will be mostly in the 70s with 30 and 40s at night….Can’t rule out a few 80s.

Some long range charts show that around the Summer Solstice, some under cutting of the westerlies may affect our areas weather.   This is long way off at this time but worth mentioning as some times around the Solstice we get some precipitation in June.

The Dweebs are off on vacation……Caio