Smokey Days and Nights likely to continue through Mid Week…..Moisture from Tropical Storm Maria may bring upper elevations of Mammoth Mt an inch or two of snow Friday night…..Models doing poor job in forcasting weekend storm…

Thursday PM:

Ugly!!  That what I see for next 2 weeks. I love Falls in October that have cool spells. The pattern next week does feature some NNE Breeze which will help with the smoke a little but nasty fire weather ahead for California with high temperatures well above normal later next week!  Its likely that well see more 70s in Mammoth with 85 to 90 in Bishop next week which is becoming some 20 degree above normal if it works out. Nights are longer now and will cool more.  Looking to see if we get a decent surface high over the Great Basin for stronger NE Flow but I do not see any cold air advection yet.  So Winds will be very light.   One thing for sure, it is going to warm up again after the weekend…. 90 to 100 in the Central Valley?? Mild Sana Ana for Southern CA.  Hot!!

 

Climo:  MJO stuck in Phase 5.  Most convection over Maritime Continent and eastern Indian Ocean.  La Nina is getting stronger with Walker Pump shifting more west with time. You can see the Rossby wave Train Coming out of the western pacific and across the North pacific. This is feeding the Zonal flow and the ridge over the far Eastern Pacific.   Not good news for any storms for California!  We may not see any moisture until the very end of the Month of October….

Pray for rain or Snow!!!

The Dweeber…..

 

WEDNESDAY 8:00AM

No Surprises this morning to this weatherman with little or no precipitation in the forecast this weekend…..  The Small feature breaking off for the westerlies today working with the remains of Maria, will split and head down the coast leaving little or no rain for the Creek Fire. Even the polar jet will remain mostly to our north with just some cooling and some wind to help disperse some the smoke from Mono County Saturday and Sunday. The Long wave Trof with the breeze will shift quickly east and high pressure aloft to the west will take over with yet another week of above normal temps expected for our county. The Dweebs are hoping that the ENE winds aloft and at the surface will help keep most of the smoke from the Creek Fire to the west of the Sierra Crest.  The Fire has burned about 327, 000 acres now and about 50% contained.

Longer Range:

The Dweebs see another Strong Ridge building over the far Eastern Pacific into CA early next week.  Although this will bring more Fire Weather headaches for the Fire Fighters as temperatures will soar to the High 90s again in the Central Valley by Mid week, the pattern also suggests a stronger surface high and NE Flow for Mammoth, (better Air Quality) beginning Sunday night into next week. There looks to be several periods of downs sloping winds on the west side of the Sierra and also the Mountains of Southern CA. (Santa Ana Winds) in the south and Moderate downsloping winds for the Western Slopes of the Sierra.  Back to the Mammoth Area, we should get “Good” air quality developing early next week and good to moderate air quality more often than not through much of next week.

 

More Later….

 

Dr Howard and the Dweebs…………….:-)

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Its October and like March…the global models are all over the place in forecasting 5 to 7 days out.  Last week it looked like a potential wind event for Mammoth Saturday the 10th with the models showing the dreaded NW jet across Northern California. Then earlier this past weekend, the upper jet had a configuration showing it much sharper and digging more off shore. This would be better for snowfall for the high country. Both the EC and GFS MODELS  painted 5 to 7 day snowfall amounts of 3 to 6 inches over the Sierra Crest.  However, this mornings 12z run of the GFS did some serious back peddling with a return of the the dreaded NW jet over Northern CA Saturday/Ngt. (windy).  So what to do about the forecast for the weekend?….Absolutely Nothing. The Dweebs will update either Wednesday or Thursday this week, depending upon what the ensembles show. Note,  there will be plenty of weather folks that will try.  My take on the flip flopping is that there is something out over the pacific that the models are having a difficult time resolving.

In the meantime, much above normal temperatures are expected to continue through mid week.  Highs in the mid 70s in Mammoth today and tomorrow Tuesday.  Highs near 70 on Wednesday. Lows in the 30s. No important winds…Just a gradual increase in southwest flow each day. Smokey conditions will prevail the next few days with a gradual decrease in smoke concentrations beginning mid week on…

Our ridge will be gone by Wednesday evening and southwest flow will increase bringing periods of subtropical high then mid level clouds into our area. All this moisture through Friday Night is associated with TS Maria.

Note:  All global models build a pretty strong ridge in next week so expect the cool down to be brief later this week…

 

Temperatures;   Highs in the mid 70s Monday and Tuesday…. Near 70 on Wednesday then 60s Thursday and Friday and 50s Saturday and Sunday.  If we do get a decent snowfall over a large part of  Mammoth Mt over the weekend, It will be difficult to get back into the 70s until its gone.

 

Dr Howard and the Dweebs…………………………….:-)

Smoke for Creek Fire to Retreat again Thursday….Upper Ridge Breaks Down this Weekend…..Slow Cooling Trend Next Week…..Slight chance of showers by Thursday the 8th…..Windy Cooler Weather to close out next week…..

Wednesday 11:10 AM:

Smoke rolled in Tuesday as expected. Expect another day of poor air quality today Wednesday.  This high pressure system aloft, (upper ridge) has been behaving in a manor that gave Northern CA strong east winds Sunday, NE winds to the Eastern Sierra Monday.   The upper high has two lobes.  Sunday and Monday the emphisis was on the northern lobe, where by the Eastern Sierra had east winds.   On Tuesday and again today Wednesday, it is the soutern lobe over or near AZ, that had higher heights, of which light southwest flow was enough to bring smoke back into our region. The northern portion will once again strengthen and overtake the south. This will allow ENE flow to redevelop over the Eastern s

Sierra and help to clear our air as the upper flow pushes the smoke baclk over the crest to the west.  The upper low is pretty weak Frday and so the flow kinda moves back and forth between SW and NE.  The overall effect may be that we might have some haze early Friday that would be cleaned up later in the afternoon, bit hard to say. By the weekend the upper high breaks down. The upper center is over Central CA. There will be little upper air movement.  So there may be some haze, but should not be a huge problem if the current model projections are correct for the air quality this weekend.  The Creek Fire reports at this time were 24 hours old.  It was some 10 to 12 miles from Mammoth Lakes. The report said that It was not progressive, as it was burning into Granite and into the old Lions Fire burn Scar. (Creek Fire; Over 305,000 areas burned)

Next Weeks Weather and Beyond…………

The idea with this mornings model runs shows a gradually break down of the strong ridge pattern over the far west, beginning this weekend, then into early next week.  Temperatures will still be above normal through at least Tuesday. However, they should pull south of the 70s by mid week. Normal highs in Mammoth in early October are in the low 60s. The Dweebs expect some SW flow early next week which will strengthen a bit by Thursday. They may mean smoke for us.  On another related subject, Hurricaine Marie, now well south of Baja will move northwest and weaken next week. Moisture from the remains of that system is progged to be picked up by a weak trof of low pressure  This moisture may make it into Central and Northern CA later Thursday the 8TH, and Friday the 9th of October. This mornings 12z GFS run showed precipitable water increasing Thursday and Friday from the coast inland.  At this time, there is about a 20% cance of showers early Friday AM the 9th.

Beyond the 9th, there is a much stronger Trof moving into the Pacific NW Saturday into Sunday the 11th. We are south of the upper jet which at this time is progged into Oregon Sunday.  Depending upon future runs of the Global Models, it is possible that the upper jet may sag as far south as Northern CA, as there has been a few runs of the GFS showing that.  The upper jet off shore at 250MB is nearing 155knots.  The front RT quad of the jet is over Northern CA later Saturday into Sunday.  At this time of the year, there is quite a bit of warmth over the deserts. The warmth and most importantly the antecedent warmth that is pre frontal, can lead to a strong wind event throughout the Eastern Sierra in the Fall, when the upper jet is northwest over Northern CA. An appraoching nose ahead of a 140 to 160knot jetlet can play havoc in both fall and mid spring.  The Dweebs main focus will be that pattern the weekend of the 10th and 11th.     Stay tuned!!!

Although the opperational runs had the upper jet over Oregon this AM, (Not as windy) The transisition period from September into October often times underplays the strrength and position of that upper jet at 250MB.

The Dweebs will take another look at the guidence early next week……

In the longest range guidence, (fantasy Land) The global models bring in another stronger wave of low pressure with yet another strong upper jet. 500MB hights suggest the possibility of showers from that system with possibly the 1st dusting.  This is in the relm of what meteorologists call Fantisy Land. The Dweebs are not putting much faith in it yet. If it still shows up in another week, I will take and give note!

 

Dr Howard and the Dweebs………….

Beautiful Clear Day Monday will Give Way to some smoke Tuesday….Then Better Air Quality Wednesday…..PNA Pattern to break down this weekend, leading to better weather for the fire fighters

9:45 PM Monday

Monday nights Rapid Refresh Smoke model really pushes the smoke back into Mammoth during the afternoon hours Tuesday….More hacking and coughing ahead….

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The highly amplified pattern across the pacific and North America, responsible the for heightened fire season is still in play.  This is actually +PNA Redux. Its a very similar pattern that developed back in early September, when the Creek Fire started. The late August through early September +PNA that developed was epic in strength, as far as positive height anomaly over CA. (601dm) for those dates.  It was truly a hybrid between the Eastern Pacific High and the Subtropical Contential High at the time.  The net result was a small upper jet that developed along the western flank of the upper high along the CA Central coast. It moved up the coast and set off a lightening storm that the Bay Area and Northern CA will long remember. That storm was respondsible for the fires along the Central and Northern CA coasts.

The current pattern is minor in comparison, but is still similar in some respects. The main height anomaly is further north, so Mammoth does not get the heat, The strongest winds are over Northen Ca and are respondsible for the fires over NAPA and north. It should be noted that, the down stream effect is a cold eastern trof that the east is dealing with.  Additionally, meridional flow is playing havoc in europe with very chilly temperatures in the Alps and France.

The Current highly amplified pattern of ridge/trof, (+PNA) will break down this weekend.  By Monday a week away, a strong belt of westerlies pushes into British Columbia. Underneath the westlelies, California is still under fairly high heights at 500MB, so temps are likley to remain a bit above normal with highs in the low 70s by Monday. Lows in the 30s. With any westerly flow, well likely get smoke from any fires that are buring to our west or SW.

Looking at the ECMWF Weeklys; (long range) looks drier than normal right on through October.  It does show some polor jet related storminess the first half of NOV.  I usually take this with a grain of salt as climate models do not do very well in September and October.

Some minor changes in the ridge pattern will allow Signifacant smoke back into Mammoth Tuesday. The upper height anomaly splits in half with slightly higher heights to the south. This will be enough to create light SW flow Tuesday and import some smoke from the Creek Fire back into Mammoth. By Wednesday, higher heights once again develops to the north and the flow backs again to the NE, later in the day Wednesday. That will tend to push the smoke back west again late in the day Wednesday. Overall,  Still looking for a very warm remainder of September/Oct week head. Not much change through the middle of next week as well. However, the GFS is showing some subtropical moisture moving into Central and Northern CA about the 9th of October. That may bring some light rain to our area.  Updates on that next week.

 

 

Dr Howard and the Dweebs…………………..:-)