A Perspective from All Hallows Eve…………….

11/2/2018

Note:  Snow has been building in Russia and Canada (especially east and central). It is above normal in most areas. The EPS from the Euro climate model shows snow building up well over the Western Mountains by Mid December.  This tells me that we’ll have good snow pack for skiing over the Christmas & New Years holidays.  🙂

1st good storm “may hit”  as early as November 14th.

The Dweeber……………………:-)

 

11/1/2018

Brief look this morning at the GFS 12z run shows 4 distant short waves in a NNW flow aloft.  One Friday night, Sunday night, Wednesday Am and Friday Am.  Each one will be associated with an increase in wind over the Sierra Crest. Each one will bring at least some cooling,  following by some warming the next day.

With the upper ridge parked out at between 125 and 130 west, we’ll stay dry for the next 7 days.  Daytime highs will vary in Mammoth between 55 and 62 with lows at night in the 20s for the most part.  Dew points will remain low, and so snow making conditions will be good at night.

Climate models still show moderate snowfall before the end of the month…

 

Dr Howard and the Dweebs……………………………..:-)

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It is almost November and it is time to take a serious look into the Crystal Ball for the weeks ahead…… For you Met Techs

Tools:

  1. Dynamic Models from CLIVAR
  2.  MJO
  3. Precip composites
  4. Lagg correlations in time
  5. Teleconnections from ECMWF and GFS
  6. CFC V2
  7. Ensembles and Control from ECMWF and GFS

 

Although the short term outlook is dry with temperatures recovering from a dry cold front last Sunday, there are Western hemispheric changes in the pattern forecasted for the next few weeks from our climate models that may result in sierra storminess about the middle or just beyond in November.

Here are the climate signals used and comments.

  1. The dynamic models are showing the reemergence of an MJO signal over the Pacific, Western Hemi then propagating to the Indian Ocean. SEE: http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/CLIVAR/clivar_wh.shtml
  2. At 200Hpa,, the Lagg Composites show for November MJO in phase I producing troughing California.  (Go to Phase I; no Mask (OND)   http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/LaggedComposites/
  3.  Check out precip composites for the MJO in Phases 1 and 2.  with phase two of the MJO having the greatest odds for Central CA.   http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/Composites/Precipitation/
  4. Teleconnections…  AO is forecasted to become negative in Mid November which usually suppresses the upper jet to the south.  http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/ao_index_ensm.shtml
  5. CFC v2   http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/mchen/CFSv2FCST/weekly/  (Suggests precip the end of the 2nd week of November into 3rd week)
  6. GFS control and ensembles are not showing any convincing signs yet of a good storm into California, but the foundation of the above may change that in the next week.

Change in pattern is still dry…However will be cold enough to start making snow….Winds will pick up Sunday with most Aspens of Strong Autumn Color getting stripped of leaves……Weather to be Chilly for All Hallows Eve….Then Seasonal Temps returning later in the week…Another Cold Slider possible the following Sunday or Monday….

10:00am Tuesday:

This morning is back to the same idea as the weekend that it will be a cooler day today. Highs near 50.  Colder night tonight.

Eastern flank of ridge back into CA this weekend for warmer then normal temps and low 60s…

Next chance of WX system is the 10th….

 

 

Monday PM the 29th:

One of the changes this morning show that the winds are a lot lower than the earlier guidance suggested. So far, the gusts over the sierra crest early this afternoon were only to 40 MPH. They were supposed to be in the 50 to 60MPH  class.  Additionally, the amount of cooling is also less. In fact the new guidance suggests that high temps on Tuesday which is supposed to be the coolest day of the week, now is actually looking a bit warmer than today Monday. So in all actuality, the amount of cooling in this Trof is probably about 1/2 of what was expected.  The next few days look seasonal temperatures wise, mid to upper 50s with ridging building closer to CA Thursday into the weekend.  Daytime temps shows highs back into the low to mid 60s as early as Thursday, then staying there into the weekend. Nighttime lows in the 20s tonight, Tuesday and Wednesday will rise to the low 30s over the weekend. More NW slider type systems are expected next week.

The following week looks dry as well with periods of cooling and warming and breeze.  The Climate Forecast System shows winter showing up the last two weeks of November. The other inter seasonal guidance available to me, the European model, I will share later tomorrow Tuesday or Wednesday AM.

Dr Howard and the Dweebs………………………:-)

 

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The last weekend of October finishes off on a warm Saturday then a windy and cooler Sunday…..Cooling will continue into Tuesday with highs some 20 degrees cooler Tuesday as compared to today Saturday. Some moderation in temps will occur Thursday into Saturday then turning breezy again the following Sunday with again more cooling. This outlook expresses the possibility of an inside slider, dropping into the Great Basin.   As far as precip goes….nothing in sight of significance. Only Precip is going to be what Mammoth Mt can deliver in the Dweeb’s Long Range week two outlook.

Note; I will have EPS ECMWF snowfall update next Tuesday. (45 day outlook)  PS. so far it has not done all that well….

 

Dr Howard and the Dweebs…………………………….:-)

Beautiful Weekend Shaping up as warm dry weather expected through Saturday…Strong Subtropical Ridge to give way to Deep Gulf of AK Trof….Early next week

The warming trend with continue in the high country as a subtropical ridge builds into Southern CA the next few days. High temps will peak out some 15 degree above normal by Saturday (70).  Cooler, breezy weather will develop Sunday as a dry cold front sweeps through the region. A large scale Trof moves from the Gulf of AK through the Pacific NW Sunday into Monday, then digs down into the Northern Great Basin early next week. Expect about 20 degrees of cooling between Saturday and Wednesday. Nights will hard freeze again next week. This is great news for Mammoth Mt as they usually start to bring out the snow guns about that time of the year.

Another Trof, an inside slider, looks probable later next week. So cool weather will return with seasonal to a bit cooler than normal weather next week. This is a dry pattern, with no moisture Bering storms expected of any significance, through the first week of November. That is expected to change by about the 12th.

 

PS; make sure the little ghouls and goblins dress warmly, as it will be quite chilly and a bit breezy Wednesday evening…

 

Dr Howard and the Dweebs…………………………:-)