Series of Storm Systems to affect the high county through weeks end….Each storm will be colder than its predecessor….Then a welcome break next week…..

1:50PM 11/28/2018

In that the Dweebs will not be updating for a few days or longer, it is noteworthy to let you know that;

  1. The Wednesday Through Friday storm is expected top bring storm totals of some 4 to 5 feet by Friday AM on Mammoth Mt.  There should be a break Friday afternoon in the snowfall.
  2. The late Friday night, Saturday’s storm is not going to be a big precip producer. However, it will be all quality snow with high Snow to Water ratios because of how cold 700MB temps are going to get.   There is still the chance that somewhere between 6 and 12 inches that may fall on Mammoth Mtn.
  3. Snow showers will linger for a while
  4. Next Weather system is the mid-week storm. I am staying with the European at the moment as it has been the most consistent. The 12Z GFS threw a curve ball in developing the Southern CA storm off the coast of Northern CA Tuesday,  Then bringing it southward with yet another cold short wave Wednesday into Thursday; the Euro is consistent in bringing in a storm that split off from the westerlies well up into the Gulf of AK then drops south to off the Southern Coast Wednesday. The storm favors Southern CA and Baja. However to its north, the Owens valley may benefit from its south-easterly flow and the Southern and Mammoth benefiting from some light to possibly moderate snow as well.  Well see what the GFS does with that storm later this afternoon. ((UPDATE)) 4:30PM  shows the GFS flipped back to their earlier thinking and is consistent with the ECMWF. This is once again mainly a Southern CA to somewhat Central CA storm.  Concerns revolve around the placement of the upper Low as there is going to be some heavy rain potential with it. Concerns are in regards to it effect upon recent burn scars, especially in the Malibu Area Wednesday. At the moment, the current model run of the gfs 18Z Wed, keeps the heaviest rains off shore but that may change.

Beyond  Mid week….The Storm door remains open for large snow bearing storms to bring heavy amounts of snowfall to Mammoth Lakes by the end of that week..then well into the 2nd week of December… In fact the European models this morning showed a possible “AR” in the making about the 11th of December. As always….Forecast models are never perfect…just forgiven….:-)

 

The Dweeber…………..:-)

 

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Residents throughout Mono County will be getting ready for the latest on slot of storms here in the high country, when once finished, may bring up to 2.5 feet of snow to the Town and some 4 to 5 feet over the crest by Friday.  Another but colder storm Saturday morning may bring our first quasi platinum powder conditions with the chance of some 6 to 12 inches of snow over the mountain at 13:1 or 14:1.  Although the long-range weather progs bring only very small chances of additional snowfall to the high country next week, the hemispheric pattern remains mostly progressive which means that any ridging off the west coast will be temporary, allowing more storms to move in the following week….week 3.

Details;

The upper flow over the eastern pacific this morning is a beautiful sight!  Beautiful in the way on how consolidated it is from 45N to 32N all the way west to north of Hawaii. This distance of fetch really can pick up a lot of moisture and storm momentum as it hits California. Within the flow are some very exciting features such as small ARs and most of all, as closed surface cyclone that spins up as it moves in, just north of the Bay Area mid morning Thursday.  Mid level flow for moisture transport is very good Thursday through Sunrise Friday AM. Thus, we are in for a protracted period of moderate to heavy snowfall beginning Later Wednesday night through Friday AM…  IE; 06Z Thursday through 14Z Friday. (30 to 32 hours!)  So it is easy to see that snowfall amounts in town could easily top 2 feet by Friday AM, then another 6 to 12 inches by Sunday;  Over the top of Mammoth Mt. between today Tuesday and Friday AM. some 3 to 4 feet,  Then another colder storm with snow to water ratios between 13:1 to 15:1  so another additional foot+ is possible over Mammoth Mt. There is also the chance of some light snow in bishop Saturday/Ngt.

We are really getting set up for the Christmas Holiday. If you have been waiting to book for the Christmas holidays…better do it now as the cat will soon be out of the bag!

 

Longer Range:

The main point here is that the Dweebs do not see long-term cold blocking in the east,  The pattern is expected to remain in the longer term “progressive”. This means that although we may have an upcoming week like next week where by some cold trofs develop in the mid west and shift east, the cold trofing is progressive and gets flushed out off out over the Atlantic, keeping the wave length open. This in turn keeps west coast ridging slowly progressive as well.   Next week is a good example. This cold system that leaves the sierra early next week progresses east and upper ridging follows for CA. We will have some fair days, especially Monday into possibly Tuesday but it will be cold to begin with.  Of note, the ECMWF is dry for us next week, all the way to the following weekend so that is a possibility too. The GFS model shows a split storm track that favors Southern CA and Northern Baja. There is the possibility that we may get a little light precip mid-week from that system but most will be on the west side. Odds are, the Northern Sierra will be dry. The upshot is, even if the GFS is correct, anything we get would be light.   I expect a healthy belt of westerlies to return the week following, beginning as early as the 10th of DEC.

 

Climate:

Webinar Conference with CPC indicated that there are significant doubts now if EL Nino will reach moderate threshold. Says Pacific Basin Warming needs further westerly wind bursts.

 

Dr Howard and the Dweebs…………………….:-)

 

Major Storm developing by Mid Week with Subtropical Connection….Heavy snowfall and strong winds over higher elevations with Colder Portion of Storm expected Thursday….Several feet of new is expected over Mamoth Mountain by Next Weekend Then….???

After a break in the storminess Saturday, Sunday on into Monday,  winds will increase again Tuesday with light precipitation developing as early as Tuesday mid day.  There appears to be a weak AR that becomes quasi stationary early Tuesday evening and possibly stall through Wednesday over the Central Sierra. So the High country remains in the warm sector Tuesday afternoon, through much of Wednesday.  It is not a wide swath and not a particularly wet one. However, it just appears to stall in the vicinity of Central California. This was in both 18z, 00z and now 12z Monday’s GFS runs.  The upcoming pattern is an interesting one in that it has a very good moisture tap and is accompanied by a surface wave that spins up into a closed cyclone, in the sweet spot, west of Pt Area. If I had ordered it myself I would not have changed its location much for Mammoth Lakes.  With the snow and the freezing level falling Wednesday and Wednesday night, the snow that will be falling on Mammoth Mt Tuesday and Tuesday night will change from rain to snow in the Towns of Mammoth and June Lake, during the day Wednesday. The “IOP” with this storm will be Wednesday night into Thursday. Amounts in the Town of Mammoth may tally between 1 and 2 feet by Friday AM at 8000 feet…..3 to 4 feet on Mammoth Mt over the crest.

There is another storm for the weekend that is colder with 1000-500MB thicknesses south of 540DM by Saturday Morning. The new 12Z Monday GFS is more bullish and a bit quicker with it.  This storm may prove to put a lid on our high temps Saturday into the 20s with snow showers possible even in the Owens Valley, Saturday morning, especially western sections near the sierra foothills….it will be cold and breezy!

 Longer Range:

The differences in the global models are more profound during the week two period. The ECMWF wants to fill the Midwest and eventually east with Arctic Air. That will tend to weaken storms moving into the west coast or cut them off all together. The main differences considering weeks 2 and 3, are in how fast the cold air moves out.  The GFS is much more progressive than the ECMWF and so it flushes out the cold quicker, while the EC takes more time.  What may end up is a more southerly but weaker storm track that favors Southern CA more… week two.  By week 3, “Mid-December, the storm track should favor the west coast once again and on into Christmas.

 

Dr Howard and the Dweebs……………………:-)

Storm Door Opening first time since last Spring as Moderate Precipitation Producer Approaches….Snowfall expected later Wednesday into Thanksgiving day…..Then a windy system with unsettled weather expected Friday/Ngt…..New storm expected by Mid Week……..

Sunday 1130am…

 

The Dweebs are traveling today….will update Monday morning. However, get ready for a massive storm midweek. Three feet + over crest.

The week 2 forecast looks potentionally omanious as well…..MJO is strengthening in phase space 8 into 1 late this week and next, leading to The potential for a strong negative phase EPO week two, then strong AR potential for west coast.

 

 

 

12:50 PM Wednesday

FYI

The Euro has come in wetter late this morning for Friday for our area. It still shows most of the moisture/precip on the west side. However, I am beginning to think that the upper mountain may pick up another 5 to 10 inches of sierra cement Friday/Night. There will still be a lot of shadowing for points east of the crest and so the QPF will fall off pretty quickly. The EC QPF for the town is between .25 to .40 now. But the snow level will rise to 7500.  It certainly possible that elevations from the Village at Mammoth to Canyon could get 3 to 5 inches of wet snow Friday and Saturday. Of note…the hose is a very wide one. What is strange is that the upper polar jet is NW/SE. over OR and the subtropical jet is leaving Southern CA… Weird!!! What’s generating all the PW?  Typically, we do not get this kind of PWAT from a NW upper flow. The Atmos  must be doing something else at lower levels? Anyway, with the bulk of precip is still on the west side. It will be very windy along Highway 395 Friday afternoon. Might be difficult to get flights in and out?  There may be some wind related road closures as well for high profiles Vehicles, due to the related gradient downsloping from the precip on the west side.  Again it will be interesting to see how this all plays out.

 Longer range:   

The Euro is down playing a major AR for next week with the Tuesday system, so although it shows an AR,  it is nothing unusual, again according to the ECMWF today. The GFS?? Its gone bonkers….Death and Destruction.  To embellish…you will be able to smell   Bananasbreadfruitscoconutsmangoespineapples, wild apples, star fruits, papayaguavasour sop, you name it if it verifies.  I do not believe it at this time so just enjoy the dream.  🙂

If the Euro starts to sing the same tune….Northern Californians may need an ARC by the following weekend.  Again, this is one operational run, I do not believe it…

One thing worth mentioning that supports the GFS;  “The MJO”   http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/CLIVAR/ncpe.shtml

In the meantime have a nice holiday!

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Short term models continue the timing with Tuesday nights runs in bringing a moderate snow storm to the Sierra Wednesday night into Thursday AM.  The Town of Mammoth is expecting up to a foot of snow while the upper mountain 18 inches+.  Daytime highs will cool to the 30s in the Town of Mammoth Thanksgiving day with 40s expected over the holiday weekend. In the storms wake is another system that will bring much more wind to our area Friday into Friday night. The Upper Jet favors the Northern Sierra most, and so a lot of the precipitation will not make it very far over the Sierra Crest. Because of this feature, snowfall amounts are going to be very difficult to estimate. Upper elevations may pick up a few inches to 1/2 foot while the Town of Mammoth may not see anymore than snow or rain showers. The warm air advection pattern associated with this system will force snow levels to rise up to 7500 feet by later in the day Friday then down over night. Overall, this is a system that Colloquially will bring 6 feet of wind and maybe a few inches of snow…Maybe not….The main focus of the weather system will be the west side and especially the northern sierra west side where up to 3 to 4 inches of rain may fall in a few areas.  The remainder of the weekend looks dry beginning Saturday afternoon into Monday.

Outlook:

Having a glimpse of mothers natures face through the American models, she definitely has that twinkle in her eyes for later next week. .  However, at time, it is too far out to go to the bank on it…..Will update Monday morning……

Happy Thanksgiving to all from Dr Howard and the Dweebs…………………..:-)