Short term warm up to be followed by more unsettled weather….Beginning as early as Saturday…Then more likely Sunday and Monday….After a Warm up Thursday into Saturday…It will be cooler Sunday into next week…..

Saturday night….5-4-2019

Several forcing mechanisms will be affecting our weather this new week with the current upper low moving into Southern Ca and yet another that will develop off the coast of So Cal later this week.  It all adds up to an active week of showers and thunderstorms  for Mono County with high elevation snowfall.

Over the course of next week, (7 days);, areas of 1/2 to as much as an inch of water eq will fall in some areas. As it is convective the best chances will be over the higher terrain.  So an active week of weather with gradually cooler temps will follow. The forecast includes the chance of precipitation each day and even during some nights……….This may persist through next weekend.

 

The Dweeber……

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Had a peak at the new models this morning for the weekend and early next week.  The models are converging on a solution that brings some pretty strong upper divergence (unstable air) over the Central Sierra, both Sunday and Monday as the next closed upper low moves inland about Malibu CA. Sunday AM. The WX system sort of stalls out over Southern CA through Monday. There  is plenty of opportunity for some slow moving meso scale storms to develop over the sierra. These may produce some locally heavy precip, mainly during the mid to late afternoon hours like in the Summer. Storm may linger into the evening as well. Thundersnow possible….

 

The Dweeber……

Cooler Days Ahead through Tuesday as a small upper low heads east, south of Mammoth then Dry Northerly Cold Front furthers cooling Tuesday into Wednesday AM….Cool showery weather may return the following weekend….

Its been a fabulous few days, enjoying the spring thaw and the warm high country sun….   The  Forecast models show a small upper low moving the Southern CA and Northern Baja today and tonight. Unstable air will interact with the high mid August like sun today for a chance of mainly high elevation showers Monday. The upper ridge over the Eastern Pacific will amplify northward and help an overland cold front to deepen south Tuesday. This in turn forces short wave energy to drop south over the Northern Great Basin and along the Eastern Slopes of the Sierra Tuesday, into Early Wednesday AM.  Although there may be a few showers from this Cold Front, for the most part over Southern Mono County it will be just wind and cooling.  Highs in Mammoth Tuesday will hang close to the upper 40s during the afternoon with a hard freeze Wednesday AM with lows in the mid 20s. A warm up is expected to begin Wednesday afternoon into Friday with highs once again in the upper 60s by Friday.

Looking onward, it’s all about the Eastern Pacific Ridge as it builds northward with a weak undercutting of the westerlies. This allows short wave energy to once again cross into CA over the following weekend. (Cinco de Mayo) Thus the pattern appears to be repeating itself with a minor closed low, this time coming in north of Santa Barbara for a better pattern of upper diffluence and upper divergence the next weekend for the Sierra. Then yet another System will follow from the north mid week, similar to what we expect tomorrow Tuesday.

 

Both the 6 to 10 day and 8 to 14 day outlooks show above normal precipitation for the Sierra. Of course above normal precip this time of the year doesn’t always mean much snow or rain. Not because of temperatures but because the climo is pretty dry by early May.

 

Bye for Now….

 

The Dweeber………………..:-)

Weak double hit this weekend will provide some showers and cooler weather…..Warm up expected early next week…..Long Range models not showing any signifacant storms for the rest of April…..

No surprises this morning…upper low over Vegas. It will move slowly east…Then begin to accelerate eastward Tuesday, with the affect of lighter winds as the day goes on. Light breezes are expected Tuesday night and Wednesday. It will warm between 10 and 15 degrees by Wednesday.   It will be a bit cooler next weekend with the chance of a few instability showers Saturday and Sunday. Hi temps today mid 50 then low to mid 60 Thursday and Friday.

Next stormy cooler period about months end or early May.

 

Dr Howard  and the Dweebs……….🌬

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Easter Sunday:

A few instability showers are possible Sunday afternoon, however no measurable precipitation expected.  Upper Trof to remain over the Desert SW through Monday Night with northerly or Northeasterly flow. Upper trof progress east Tuesday and Wednesday.  A rapid warm up is expected Tuesday into Wednesday, before another weak Trof moves through the following weekend. That system looks unlikely to bring much more then high clouds, some minor cooling and breezy weather.   Next windy, cooler showery weather expect about May1st…

Highs in Mammoth Sunday near 50, then mid 50s Monday and 60s Tuesday and Wednesday.  Lows in the 20s rising to the 30s next week….

 

Note: MJO developing in phase 2 then travels through phase 5.  This time of year the MJO usually has little effect. However, this year seems to be a different animal too.

 

Dr Howard and the Dweebs……………………:-)

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Saturday Afternoon…  1:15PM

 

Mammoth Mt currently on Lightning hold at the moment.   Latest lightning detection shows some cloud to cloud spikes to the west of Mammoth Mt.

Frontal band is weakening and should be through by about 2:00 PM this afternoon.  So far we’ve picked up .12 inches of rain in town. Still RAIN/SLEET..

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The on again off again pattern of every 3 days, a weak storm, appears to becoming to an end by this Monday. Meanwhile, we do have some unsettled weather Saturday into Sunday AM with showers possible with light precipitation totals expected. The are two weather systems off the coast. 1. Subtropical low lifting ENE through California tonight. 2. A cooler short wave coming in Saturday from the NW.  The Northwesterly short wave appears to have the best UVM. So afternoon showers best bet with daytime convection.  Expect Saturdays highs to cool to the MID 50s, from Fridays 60s and then low 50s for Easter Sunday. Nights will cool to the upper 20s the next few days…. So this weekend may experience the last of the showers and significant cooling for awhile…..But not for this Spring. There is always the chance for some instability showers now and then, but not much cooling associated with it.

Just a gut feeling…..I do expect a decent storm or two in May. This may be one of those Springs that really warm up in the Owens Valley, only to get hit hard with a frost, later in May.

 

Dr Howard and the Dweebs……………………..:-)