One more slider system to bring showers tonight while upper ridge builds in Wednesday and Thursday……Fair and warm St Patty’s Day……Then beware of the ides of March…..

Thursday PM

Quite weather pattern to continue through Monday with highs climbing to the low 50s by Sunday and Monday,  lows at night will in the teens then 20s late weekend….

Pattern next week looks wimpy compared to the storms of February.  Nevertheless, mainly light to moderate precipitation is expected Tuesday night into Wednesday.  There is a bit of a challenge for Wednesday as on of the models splits the trof coming in during the morning period. If that becomes mainstream thinking,  we could end up with a lot less.   Best guess now is 6 to 12 inches above 8000 feet.  The snow level should range between as high as 7500 ir 8,000, down to about 6500 feet. There is another system that looks similar the following weekend.  Remember, this is just an outlook, more details will come over the weekend and early next week….   In the meantime, have a happy and safe St Patties Day Sunday……..a big pot of Corn Beef, Cabbage and Carrots with a splash of Jameson one of my favorites.

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The Storm system that brought the chill and the light snow over the weekend was rapidly opening into a trof and accelerating eastward through the deserts and Northern Mexico this afternoon. On its heals was the last short wave in the form of an inside slider. This system will bring another shot of cooling later tonight and Wednesday as well as a brief shot of light snow showers this evening. It has a good gradient as well, so expect wind.    Highs will be in the low 30s once again Wednesday.

As promised, the weekend looks much milder. There will be some cloudiness at times, however highs will climb toward 50 by Sunday and Monday.

There is another pattern shift next week. The upper high that builds over the weekend will amplify up into Western Canada. This forces the undercutting of the westerlies back into California. Being that it is Mid March, and the MJO is not strongly favoring areas of  the phase space that would support an AR, the outlook is clouded, no pun intended. The CPC has the central and north Central CA wet mid-week, next week. The models struggle with a weak extension of the east asian jet into the central west coast by mid-week.  However, I will say that this time, there is no phasing with any cold Trof.  So, if we get a storm, the snow level may end up higher with any storm track that develops. In any case,  It is too soon to know any details…..Better visibility by the weekend.

 

Dr Howard and the Dweebs………………………:-)

Cold unsettled pattern to continue through mid-week next week…….As Winter winds down….A hole new set of concerns arrive….localized and lower level flooding Throughout California…….

March 18th 8:30AM

After a beautiful weekend, another series of storms will approach for mainly Southern and Central CA. High pressure aloft has formed a block over British Columbia Canada. The westerlies are forced underneath into CA. The systems are coming in negative tilt and so southerly flow will highlight the precipitation probabilities and thus a lack of orographics.    Latest RFC precipitation forecasts about an inch over the west side from the Wednesday Thursday storm. The Dweebs EST between 5 to 10 inches of snow on Mammoth Mt and between 3 and 5 inches in town by Thursday evening. Snow level will start at 7500 Tuesday night and low to 6000 feet Wednesday.  High temps in the 30s Wednesday.    They look to be a break Friday with another system Friday night and Saturday. This look to be another light to moderate precipitation producing system although it is too soon to fine tune amounts as of yet.   Another couple of storms are forecasted that following week…..

 

The vernal equinox occurs at 1:58pm this Wednesday the 20th.

 

The Dweeber………:-)

 

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Winter seems to be wrapping up with the present offshore trof that will bring snow showers and light amounts of snowfall accumulations. The two key periods seem to be Sunday as the off shore upper low settles south, and a deformation zone sets up over the Sierra and western Nevada. I would not expect much more than 1 to 3 inches from a pattern like this for Mammoth. There is another colder system headed our way as the long wave trof shift east for Tuesday into Wednesday. 1 to 3 inches…After that, high pressure aloft will begin to do its job the second half of next week. The ridge may not be strong enough to keep all the short wave energy out of the area, but it will keep any major storms out. Over time as we go through the third week of March….it appears to build even stronger.  Looking at the MJO, many of the models circle it around phases 3 and 4.  Phase 4 typically is dryer out west this time of the year while 3 can still produce some storminess. The Euro want to take it through and past the circle of death back into phases 8/1. That is the area of undercutting and that would typically brings us a warmer latitude storm track which California does not need. The timing for that should it occur is around the 20th.  BTW, The GFS does not not agree….it is more “Ridge City” as far as the eye can see….

However, the American Global Forecast System, ”GFS”, does really warm us up week 2 and that is concern enough because of the tremendous snow pack over the Sierra, especially in the mid elevations between 6000 feet and 8000 feet.  Flooding looks to become an issue at some point….

in the meantime, enjoy this weekend’s skiing and boarding at its finest, as spring skiing is on the way later this month.

PS, The IKON pass is now on sale through Mammoth Mt.  Get this years best price on this pass before April 24th.

 

Dr Howard and the Dweebs…….

Stormy February into March Pattern transition underway with much less snowfall in our medium range…..Longer Range seems to be continuing the trend through the next week…..

Our stormy pattern associated with this winters robust eastern pacific trof is weakening. This particular trof seems to be coming in, in parts now. As a result, different parts of California will have different experiences with this pattern. We may have some light snowfall into tonight. However, light snow showers seem to be the way to go Friday and saturday with a chance of a bit better forcing Sunday. The models handle the pattern differently. However the wettest model brings about a foot over the crest Sunday into sunday night and is being discounted at this time. Where other models give us less than half of that.  The resounding message here is that unsettled weather is here to stay for the next 5 days, but the Dweebs do not see a major storm.  It will turn colder toward mid-week next week as a cold California Slider drops south with more snow showers Tuesday.   Highs will be in the 30s, with lows in the teens….

As a comment, the end of this latest storm cycle was a bit of a disappointment for snowfall. Amounts over the past 7 days, totalled about 5 feet over the crest, not 7….

 

The Dweeber…….:-)