Warmer than Normal Summer Forecast Coming to Fruition as our first Summer heat wave develops this Weekend…..Monsoon Rains Develop Early over the Southwest….Not Surprisingly as Summer heat Cranks Up……

July 3rd:

 

New 12Z Saturday GFS still shows Scorching Heat for next weekend in California as the dreaded 500mb 600DM isoheight invades CA Saturday into Sunday…  Very warm weather to return to the Pacific NW and BC as well.

More later on this developing pattern….  Thunderstorms in the Mammoth area for the most part will be isolated at best much of next week.  Highs in Mammoth 80 to 85, possibly climbing to 90 by next weekend.

The Dweeber…………..

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6/30/2021

Skys were over developed this morning delaying convection. Thunderstorms are one again developing over Mono County with rain, thunder and lightining.  Another repeat is expected Thursday, then some drying taking place to the south of us working northward during the day on Friday. Thunderstorms should they occur Friday should occur later in the afternoon or even evening.   The holiday weekend looks warm in the high county with highs in the upper 70s to near 80. Lows at night will be in the upper 40s and low 50s.   Its what happens next week which is of interest.   Models are converging on another heat wave developing by Mid Week.  ECMWF has heights in the very upper 590s just off shore as a ridge builds in. This is a dry pattern with Mono Zypher afternoon breezes.   The GFS has 500 mb heights building up into the low 600s over the Great Basin by weeks end. 1000-500mb Thicknesses push up into the High 580 and even low 590s.  Scorcher!!   This heat wave should the models continue their trend, Develops beginning mid week next week, through the next weekend and beyond. All time records again in jeopardy later next week.  Climo for warmest week is early 2nd week of July.  All time record for Bishop was set in 2010, July 10th. 110.   Well see what happends next weekend..

 

More later this week………………

 

The Dweeber……………………:-)

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June 27th  Update:

Just a quick update;  Fire weather watch for Monday and Tuesday for Mono County issued by the National Weather Service.

High based strong thunderstorms are expected to begin developing Monday into Tuesday. Dry lighting, (lighting outside of the rain shafts) will threaten our forests that are extreamly dry. strong outflow winds may whip up any fires that start, anyware, nearby thunderstorms. These first storms are not monsoon related.  As mentioned below, an easterly wave may, and now looking more likley to pump monsoonal flow and dynamics northward to add to Monday and Tuesdays atmospheric modifacational mositure.  Increasing wet thunderstorms mid to possibly late week are expected.   Stay tuned…..IT COULD BE A WILD WEEK, WEATHER WISE.

DR HOWARD AND THE DWEEBS…………..

 

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June 24th:
All meteorological eyes are focused upon the rare heat wave event set for the Pacific NW this weekend and into next week. There is the possibility of all-time record high temperatures in the 130+ years of record keeping by the NWS for that area. The all-time record high for Seattle is 103 in July. The fact that this event is happening in June is exceptional. The pattern will challenge existing record highs with temps at or above. In Oregon state, some inland areas could have record highs in the 110 to 115 range. NWS has hoisted excessive warnings for this weekend into next week. This is a deadly heat wave as many people do not have AC in their homes and night time temps will not recover anything close to normal.
Cause of Heat:
A strong negative height anomaly develops in response to a deep Aleutian Low taping Arctic Air which builds an excessively high amped ridge just off the Washington coast Friday. This strong positive height anomaly progresses inland over Southern BC and the Pacific NW this weekend and into early next week. Although the positive height anomaly weakens a bit by mid-week, the latest extended model guidance redevelops the ridge offshore again the following Friday, for a possible redux of the Pacific NW heat wave the following weekend. Of course, were talking 10 days out which is more fantasyland model wise, but worth keeping an eye-out for.

Mammoth Weather: (Extended) for this weekend and next week.

An extension of the system in the pacific NW will affect the far west as well, with off shore flow and high heights. This spells another heat wave for much of California. Highs in Mammoth will be in the low to mid 80s next week and Bishop, beginning this Sundaay, 103 to 107. The heat may last most of next week.

Of interest is a weak Easterly Wave as mentioned in the update below. This westward moving system is progged to be near Florida tomorrow Friday as it emerges from the Atlantic. The track takes it across the Gulf of Mexico to the east coast of Mexico south of Brownsville, Tx Sunday AM.  As it tracks across Mexico, it picks up monsoon moisture along the way from Old Mexico. By Monday evening, it is located near Nogales, Sonora.  This feature taps high PWATs both from the Mexican Monsoon and added PWATs from a tropical storm west of Puerto Vallarta this Monday, that feeds the Sea of Cortez of PWATs of between 2.00 and 3.00+ inches. Although that kind of PWATs never makes it into AZ or CA, there maybe a strong surge of mositure from this wave next week as high as 2.00 off the coast of So-Cal.  The wave continues to progress toward Hawaii later next week.  This mositure surge may push all the way up to OR/WA state border by Thursday or Friday before the holiday weekend.  Additionally, the Easterly Wave may spin up a weak subtropical low off the Southern CA coast by Mid Week, helping to channel this mositure northward.

Thoughts, I have to say that I can not remember a pattern like this in June into early July ever!   What is so interesting is not only is the Monsoon progged so early, but look at the Synoptic height field….Its crazy!  You have an intense large scale positive  mid latitude height field over the Pacific NW while the easterlys well underneath are so robust for this time of the year.  We may get into quite a thunderstorm pattern before the holiday weekend; Wednesday, Thursday, Friday. Possibly some good wetting rains? Stay tuned!!

 

THE DWEEBER…….:-)

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Although it is our second heat wave for the month of June, it’s our first heat wave for the season of Summer! June may go down as one of the warmest on record out west, as more record highs are expected early next week.  As far as records go, it is unfortunate that we are still working under the climatology with a period ending in the year 2016, as there has been so many record highs since then.

Western Weather Week 1

An upper trough west of Central CA will slowly weaken as it progresses to the coast.  Upper divergence will bring mainly dry thunderstorms to the Sierra, especially Thursday. This weak system is responsible for our enhanced Zephyr winds as well as the cooler and extremely dry conditions.  By the weekend, the big positive height anomaly west of Washington state will be the driver of the weather out west as it moves on shore Saturday and Sunday. The big upper height anomaly will then develop a bit further south over the far west with summer heat increasing in California and Nevada, Tuesday, Wednesday, and Thursday. Those days look to be scorchers for the Eastern CA deserts. The longer-range charts do not look much different through July 4th.

The GFS looks a bit different with some ensemble members taking an easterly wave across old Mexico, then off the Southern CA Coast during the first week of July.   That would spell some relief with some rainfall, however, it’s a long shot at this point.

Again, 1st look at the July fourth weekend looks very warm with thunderstorms in the high-country during week 2.

Dr Howard and the Dweebs…………………….:-)

 

 

Very warm weather event for the High Country Pails compared to deadly heat wave setting up for Deserts of Eastern CA and Southern Nevada

June 16

Hot day in the Owens Valley with a high temp so far of 108 at 2:50PM at the Bishop AP.   That shatters the old record of 104 set back in 1958. Another high temperature record is expected tomorrow Thursday with the old record of 104 in Jeopardy.

Higth Temps will liley remain at 100 or above through next Tuesday.  Here in Mammoth the high was 82 today near the visitor center in town.  Expecting highs about the same tomorrow Thursday.  Lows at night in the 50s at 8K.  4 Days left of Spring!

Summer Solstice arrives Father’s Day at 8:31PM for California.

I Wonder what Summer has in store for us?  It will cool down a bit by mid-week next week with highs about 10 degrees cooler. So next Wednesday through the following weekend looks fairly seasonal.  Low to mid 70s, and Breezy too…

The Dweebs are keeping an eye on tropical storm development off the coast of Mexico Week 2.  According to the CPC, a Kelvin Wave, an Air-Sea Coupled area of convection over the Western Pacific is slowly pushing east. A large area of upper divergence is expected to develop over the tropical eastrern pacific off the coast of Mexico late next week. It is expected that a tropical depression will develop off the coast of Mexico the last weekend of June and spin up as it approaches Baja during that last days of June. This may add to an increase in southerly flow coming out of old Mexico toward the end of the month, helping to initiate the SW Monsoon Season to AZ and the desert SW. Hope it rains a lot for those folks!!

 

The Dweeber………………..:-)

 

 

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June 14th: (Monday AM Update:)

Strong continential high develops over Four Corner states, then retrogrades west into CA Mid Week…..

Not much change in this weeks forecast other than to increase chances for heat related thunderstorms Thursday and Friday. There is a 20% to 30% chance of late afternoon T-storms over the higher elevations Thursday, then forming earlier in the day Friday, possibly lasting into the early evening hours. The heat wave should peak in the high country Thursday with upper 80s possible before afternoon convection and cloudiness develops earlier Friday for a few degrees of cooling off Thursdays highs.

The Important update this morning is that good ensemble concensus shows high pressure building into the Gulf of AK beginning Sunday. Through the process, cooler air is likley to spread south from Western Canada, over the Far West during the 2nd half of next week. This developing Trof should return highs to more seasonal levels during the second half of next week.  The more seasonal weather will likely come to an end during the first week of July as the same upper high, retrogrades west to the Bering Sea, (-WPO)  allowing 500MB heights to increase again over the Far West.

 

Dr Howard and the Dweebs……………………:-)

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SUNDAY 13th

“The hottest weather out west is commonly expected in the Month of July”. Heat waves in the deserts of Southern California and Southern NV are not unusual In Summer, especially before the Summer Monsoon sets in. For the month of June, this time it is different. A major potentially killer heat wave is setting up for cities like Las Vegas.  What is different about this heat wave is not just the expectation of broken high temperatures, but more importantly, the protracted length of the heat that will begin to take over the deserts in the coming days. Many heat waves last just a few days with temperatures pulling back to more normal levels thereafter. This heat wave is a different animal, as it is likey to last a week or possibly longer.  Overnight high low temperatures are possible as well. The Homeless in the Vegas area are especailly in jeopardy, as well as those without a good air cooling system. Power black outs are not out of the question. Record high low temps may hold temps in the high 90s or even 100s after midnight. This may be one the worst heat waves in June in many years for some desert areas.

  • In the Owens Valley all time highs for June may be challenged later this week.  No Child or Pet should be left in any car, unattended for even a few minutes this week.

More later…………..

 

Dr Howard and the Dweebs……………..

After record breaking temperatures last week, a major cool down is underway with wind….Cooling and Freezing Temps possible for the high Sierra Valley’s Mid Week…..This apprears to be Winters Last Gasp………

June 9th

Just an update during this transition from Spring to Summer.

Everything on track for the short and medium range. However. the following weekend of the 18th, 19th and 20th look pretty hot throughout the Owens Valley and very warm here in the high country, if the week two models work out.

Here are some records to think about during that time frame, mainly for the Bishop AP. As usual, record keeping was not so great for Mammoth in the past 20 years. I use an *algorythm for a station that mimics Mammoth that is lower, but further north that works fairly well.

Anyone care about Mammoth Record keeping for the future?  An automated recording system is only about $1M for an AWOS system.   I may be biased, but think that it is worth while.  🙂

Records:    Bishop     18th    19th   20th   21st

……………………………………107     107    108    108

………………..*MMH        86       85      85      85

 

If this heat wave does appraoch, tie or break old records, that will be pretty remarkable as added to the heat earlier this month, we’ll be headed toward a very warm June in the record books!

BTW; the all time record for Bishop was set 7/10/2010 (110F). This might be the year to break that record!

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Tuesday the 8th

Just an update on the latest 12 runs today on the longer term. All appear to be in consenus now in lifting next weeks trough north of California.  This means that this major cool down is likely our last of Spring.

As a note, this Thursday AM frost is likley our last at 8000 feet.  Lower elevation valleys along highway 395 may have additional frosts prior to the weekend.

 

Warm weather is on the way this weekend and beyond…..Hot in the Owens Valley next week.

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As indicated in my interseasonal outlook a few weeks ago, there will be one more significant push of chilly air into the Sierra this week and into the middle of the following week. This comes on the heels of record breaking heat over Eastern CA.. It should be noted that not only were there a series of high temperature record days in the High Sierra and Owens Valley; there were also records of the warmest temperatures both day and night ever recorded, so early in the year for the Owens Valley at the Bishop Airport. These records go back to the late 19th Century, IE over 120+ years. The warmest day was Thursday the 3rd, as the high at the Bishop AP reached 104.
Today, a cool down is in process for the high country, with highs expected in the low to mid 70s in Mammoth Sunday. At the Bishop AP, the high temperature forecast is still expected to reach 100, one more time, just shy of the 102 record for the date. Lows at night were in the 50s at resort levels and 60s in the Owens Valley this morning….This will all change for the upcoming new week.
WX Discussion:
A major change in the pattern is taking place this week as a late Spring Upper Trof descends out of the Gulf of AK and progresses through CA  early Thursday AM. Up at 500MB, over 200 Meters of height falls are expected between today and Thursday morning. The main trof axis comes through as soon as Midnight Wednesday  with the coolest air into our region Thursday morning. About 20 to 25 degrees of cooling is expected through the period. Expect highs in Mammoth by Wednesday in the mid-50s. The passage of the Trof will leave a cold morning in Mammoth with lows in the upper 20s.  However, high Sierra valleys such as Bridgeport and Long Valley will dip down into the low 20s. This chilly air may hang around for a while. The ECMWF and GFSX shows these valleys in the 20s and 30s on and off through the following Tuesday the 15th. The Owens Valley will cool down as well next week, however temps will remain above freezing with even the coldest spots like Dixon Lane, only reaching down into the mid to upper 30s by next Thursday AM.
Worth mentioning, this cool down will be associated with some strong winds Tuesday into Thursday AM. Wind advisories are not out of the question as well as fire weather concerns.
On the bright side, warming will move in quickly the following weekend with seasonal to possibly above normal temps expected. However, at the sametime, another trof will attempt to press forward to the coast, while a subtropical continential high develops over the four corner states.   My bet is that the continental high will win out given the time of year and as such, the next trof will either stall out, or its upper jet will round its base, lifting it to the northeast away from Central CA.  The Summertime continental high sets up, building north and shifting west in July, for one Hot Summer out west and heightened Fire concerns…. Sierra Thunder is also expected to become more common this Summer. Enjoy the last hand full of days of cool weather in Eastern CA as hot weather is on the way and soon!!
ENSO IS Neutral this Summer, and may stay that way through the Fall….. Early Winter?? We’ll be Ready for it!! 🙂

 

Dr Howard and the Dweebs………………………:-)