Up to 20 inches of fresh on Mammoth Mt Today…..Upslope snowfall to end this evening…..Next Storm Monday with another the end of the week…..

Sunday 1`:30PM…..Its later than you think!! 😉

No changes of the snowfall estimates for tonight and Monday as stated below. Winter Weather advisories were hoisted by the NWS beginning late tonight into Monday Evening.

The mid-week period still looks dry, however, as also stated below, the next storm for the next weekend looks much warmer and wetter with the possibility of a weak AR as ITV and IWV are indicting. Considering the slow movement of the storm, amounts may end up in the two foot+ range by week’s end.

More later on that storm…

 

Dr Howard and the Dweebs……………………………:-)

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Light beautiful upslope snowfall continued Friday, as the storm system exits Southern CA today into the Desert SW.  Saturday looks blue bird with ridge top winds diminishing during the mid to late afternoon. Highs in Mammoth will climb into the 40s after being in the mid to upper 20s for several days.

With the wintertime Hudson Bay Low absent now and its upstream blocking absent, the progression of short waves have resumed into California. The next upstream system will have a small moisture tap enough for the possibility of an additional 7 to 10 inches of fresh on Mammoth Mt by Monday into Monday evening.  The Town may get 4 to 6 inches.  In the Dweebs extended outlook (subject to change) The following Tuesday through Friday looks dry at the moment, with the next system looking both warmer and wetter, beginning the following Sunday. There may be a weak AR with that storm….  The second half of next week looks milder temperature wise…..

 

Dr. Howard and the Dweebs…………………:-)

Active Pattern returns to the Sierra as a series of cold storms begin their March into the West Coast next week…..

4:35pm Sunday

Models still beating the drum of a cold moderate storm. 6 to 18 inches with the average snowfall amount of about a foot.  This is mainly a Tuesday through Thursday storm.  There are several more systems expected the following week.  More later……

 

The Dweeber…………………….

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It’s March…..And what we would normally expect over this part of the hemisphere is a weakening Hudson Bay Low; AKA Polar Vortex.   The feature that often provide blocking in the wrong place for California is now Absent!  This will gives California the opportunity to play catch up on our subnormal snowpack over the next two weeks.   At the moment, it is running about 50% of normal for this time of the year.  Looking at the precipitation portion of the European Ensembles out through the 17th, the model gives the crest up to 4 feet of snow through that period and the climate models keep it coming beyond that time frame.  Keep in mind, without a substantial AR, were not going to get heavy amounts….. And so far, none is indicated…  The new developing pattern for next week shows a series of cold Trofs heading into all of California beginning Monday with the longwave position parked just off or along the California coast beginning this Friday night then through the following weekend. In that the storms are cold, expect the powder to be lighter than normal…

In the meantime, we have a couple of nuisance systems to deal with.  One moving through Southern CA today that may bring a few showers and another that is focused mainly on the northern sierra this weekend that may bring an inch or two to Mammoth Lakes.  Highs this weekend will be in the 40s with lows in the teens and 20s.  It will be breezy more often than not this weekend. The more active pattern begins this upcoming Monday and continues beyond…..

 

Dr Howard and the Dweebs………………..:-)

Northwest Flow to continue for the foreseeable future….The Cold in the east shifts out over the Atlantic next week and by next weeks end…The West turns cooler…..

2/25/21  4:07pm

Longer Range:

Prospects are still good for a Storm that begins next weekend the 6th. The European shows the IVT Atmospheric River tools in the weak range at our latitude. The Euro also shows a rather large broad slow moving trof developing off the west coast that weekend into the middle of that following week…. So a 4 day storm.    However, before you book for a storm that weekend, the GFS ensembles are not bullish for an AR at all. Instead, it brings in a weakening large scale trof that is much more progressive.   So…What to make of it all?

Taking a look at the 8 to 14 day outlooks from NOAA,  those folks are bullish for above normal precipitation and colder than normally temps that weekend through the middle of the following week.  I believe they like the EURO….

I think that we can say that we will have a storm or two, the following weekend into the next week, however, confidence for a big storm is not there yet….

Will take another look this Sunday…..

 

Dr Howard and the Dweebs……………………:-)

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9:30AM 2/24/2021

Not much to add to the post below for the remainder of February as series of NW sliders brings mainly wind, cooling today, Thursday night and a few snow showers Saturday afternoon.  Nights will be especially cold with highs running below normal the next several days…..Low 30s to low 40s  and Lows in the single digits and teens…

Meteorological Spring begins Monday. The Planetary Rossby Wave pattern tends to become more choppy with time in March. I see some possibilities for a significant storm the weekend of the 6th/7th of March.  This is just some guess work for now.  The pattern shows promise as I think I know where it is headed. It stands to reason that with March coming up, we are going to see storm systems becoming more cut off from the westerlies at times and in the case of the 6th and 7th system, a closed off system that is more east west oriented while it taps AR moisture. The long range IVT model shows a Moderate AR for our latitude around the 5th/6th  while the Euro pushes it back a day to the 6th/7th. Stay Tuned on this one….  Remember, this is not a forecast, just a development in the outlook…

Dr Howard and the Dweebs……………………:-)

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Outside of the two day wonder late last January, the winter has been pretty uneventful over the far west. Future outlooks don’t look any better through the end of this month and possibly through the first half of March!

The current pattern shows cold Arctic Air intrenched over the mid west and parts of the south. The good news is that, this appears to be the last deep blast of Arctic Air for the south and parts of the mid west for a while. The cold PK air is going to shift to the east coast by this weekend, and then out over the Atlantic next week.  Why is that important for the west?  It is important as that is one of the features that is blocking up our pattern. However, not the only one.

Looking at the ECMWF (EURO Model) ensembles day +7, it is easy to see that the long wave Trof in that mean will retrograde to the Great Basin with time.  This will occur during the second half of next week. So after a brief warm up early next week, expect colder weather later in the week and into early March. There may be a storm or two with light to moderate snowfall from that shift.  However, at this time, the 00z progs shows inside or CA sliders…..

The WX Pattern outlook continues to show one of drier than normal averages for this time of the year.

The Northwest flow patterns like the one we are currently in, favors the Pacific NW. This is typical during La Nina winters and one which is expected to continue into March. With the Long Wave Trof retrograding westward with time, the upper flow will tend to sharpen. The progs show the upper jet mostly out of the north, over or along the west coast by early march. This is a colder than normal pattern and still mostly a dry one.  If, and its a big if, the Eastern Pacific high retrogrades a bit more, we may get some coastal sliders with more moderate amounts of snowfall. Again…These usually do not bring a lot of snow, but possibly amounts in the 6 to 18 inch range.  Time frame wise, that looks to be in the early part of March.  By mid month March, we are going into our spring patterns.  The PV weakens and the pattern typically becomes more progressive, meaning the movement in large air masses that previously have been mostly stationary have more movement.  This will be our best opportunity to play catch up with our water year precipitation. This should develop by Mid March and continue into Mid April. If California is successful, with a few good strong “AR”s, we may dodge a bullet with what could be another horrible fire summer season.

Dr Howard and the Dweebs…………………….:-)