Although the end in storms may be near….It is now unlikely through next weekend with more of the same headed our way…….MJO stuck in Phase 8….is another AR looming for week 2 or 3?

Mammoth had a good old-fashioned blizzard today. Strong gusty winds, and white out conditions challenged the best of drivers.  Although in the longer term, the american models (GFS) want to shift the big trof in the west to the east, (WEEK 2), The euro is stuck with its western trof and as long as the daily’s continue the trend of cold storms dropping out of the Northern Gulf of AK dragging down Arctic Air, will keep the status quote and call for more cold dry powder on the way.  PS, if the MJO is stuck in phase 8 over the boiling convection over the central equatorial pacific, do not be surprised if another AR develops during week 2 or first week of March….because of phase 8-1…. Watch for the -EPO or -WPO…under cutting westerlies…

So far Mammoth pass has picked up about 5 inches of water.  The upper mountain has picked up over 5 feet.  Will update Saturday to see what the morning totals will be.   Although storms total will not likely tally 10 feet on old Wooly….Amounts will challenge 7 or 8 feet by Monday AM at 6:00.

 

Monday and Tuesday look like the best Trans Sierra travel days, before another cold trof descends south down the coast Wednesday night and Thursday.  Another system with better over water trajectory is in the cards for another Dump by Saturday or Sunday the following weekend….If you like fresh powder most days of next week….this is your weather pattern!

 

Dr Howard and the Dweebs………………….:-)

The End is Near!……That is the end of the Big February storms….Next week looks dry and cold……

Wednesday Evening….

 

So Far about 8 inches of the wet stuff has fallen on the snow plott at the main lodge. With about 2.75 inches of water EQ.  Pretty Wet!

As far as the storm….It has barely started!   What we have had is warm air advection without any vertical motion to speak of.  Tomorrow, the vertical motion in the atmosphere will begin, especially later in the morning….and watch what happens….It will be quite serious by about Lunch Time!  Then heavy snow all afternoon with the first cold trof lifting the AR.   Another colder trof comes in Friday morning for another big snow day!!

We still have some 7 to 8 inches of water to squeeze….

 

The Dweeber….

 

 

 

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Tuesday AM……can you smell the pineapples yet?

Latest guidance from the GFS shows some 9+ inches on the west side of South Central Sierra. So 8 to 9 feet probably at 10000 Feet, considering what snowfall ratios will be over all.

Updated.…California Rivers Forecast Center shows 9.02 inches at Huntington Lake, much of which falls within a 24 hours period. Blue Canyon over the Northern Sierra shows 9.06 inches storm total. So no real Bulls-eye from the southern sierra to the northern sierra.
From this morning, the WPC had updated their QPF to as high as 9 inches over the west side of our sierra. Our snow level on Wednesday will fluctuate between 7000 and 8000 feet. Any rain that falls in town, will be absorbed by the cold dry snowpack in place. In that the there is enough QPF over the weekend for Snow to Water ratios in the 12 to 13:1 range at the end of the storm….., odds are that this is going to be close to a 100 inch storm above 10,000  with a higher moisture content than the Feb 6th system. Well see what Mammoth Mt reports Monday AM for storm total.

Today is your last day to create more snow storage…..

Locals should have plenty of supplies on hand in the case of power outages. Bring enough dry wood in…in the case it rains.
Very strong winds from an angry upper jet is expected Thursday…..Again power outages are possible

Total snow fall from the storms by the end of the weekend over Mammoth Mountain is likely to tally in the 8 to 10 foot range. In town another 3 to 5 feet at 8000 feet is possible by Sunday night, as a colder storm is likely after the wet one.
Next week will be cold and much dryer…..and possibly continue dry through months end…

Dr Howard the the Dweebs..

Mammoth Braces for yet another storm…This time it will be wet with moisture flowing NE from the Hawaiian Islands followed by Colder snow on Thursday…..Pattern to remain mostly active throught he weekend with weaker storms….then cold inside slider pattern setting up next week…

Abundant moisture is one again headed for the Eastern Sierra as a storm from the Gulf of Alaska reaches back and phases with a Kona Low north of Hawaii.  This pattern has been in the cards for well over a week now, and in some cases, there are still many unanswered questions,.

  1. Where will the Bullseye be for the most precip over the Sierra?
  2. How fast will the snow turn to rain and vice versa. The pattern is highlighted by the infamous Atmospheric River, foretold by the MJO over a week ago.  For those that are interested in what the Atmospheric river is and does, SEE:  https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/arportal/about/

 

This Atmospheric River is especially important to Mammoth, as there is such a deep snowpack now. Any extra weighting on local roofs is especially concerning. The snow forecasted for Tuesday night will be highlighted by warm air advection precipitation. Warm moist air over-riding a cold air mass in place. The lift comes from the sierra and the dome of the pre-existing cold air. This generally is accompanied by steady light to possibly moderate precipitation here at 8000 feet. As the day goes on Wednesday, precipitation rates are likely to increase. If heavy snowfall continues in the high country Wednesday, it is possible that the snowfall may not turn to rain, in which case more snowfall could accumulate here in town then expected. I’ll have another update in the Morning….

 

The storm is capable to bring between 2 and 5 feet of new snowfall

 

Long Range:

The Weekend looks unsettled with snow showers and colder than normal temps..

 

Next week will be much colder than normal with an inside slider pattern developing. IE. Snow showers with highs in the 20s and lows in the single digits and teens….