The updated outlook consedes that the train of closed lows will continue at least another week….possibly two

It there an end in sight? It looked that way a week ago….just a head fake!

Coldest May?  Actually for Fresno, both May of 2010 and 2011 were tied at -3.7F degree below normal for the month.

It appears that another in the series of cool upper level low pressure systems will track across the Sierra today and tonight bringing snow showers and gusty winds to our region. Lake wind advisories go into effect at 1:00pm this afternoon and continue through 8:00pm tonight. The strongest winds will occur late afternoon and into the early evening hours with the FROPA. Then an even wetter system arrives for the weekend and may end up bringing a good 4 to 8 inches of snow above 9000 feet Sunday into Monday. Snow showers could begin anytime beginning Friday night. So here we go with another unsettled weekend and the way the WX maps look for next week it may continue for some time. Why? 

OUTLOOK:

WX Discussion….

An expansive warm core ridge is expected to remain anchored from the mid southern states southwest to Northern Mexico. This working teleconnection tied with a persistent positive upper height anomaly off the British Columbian coast will keep a signifacant negative height anomaly in the mean off the Northern Coast for the next week, possibly two. This leads to a series of deep cyclones dropping down into California for the next week to 10 days. The guidance, operational and ensembles are all in agreement concerning the next system to effect California this weekend. After the weekend the ECMWF keeps a trof in the mean over California pretty much all of next week with a series of small features dropping south over our state as either coastal sliders or interior sliders. The next more organized system is poised to drop south in California about Saturday the 12th/Sunday the 13th.  “It ain’t over till its over!” (Yogi Berra)



Dr Howard and the Dweebs…………………………………:-)



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Reference Glossary of Weather Terms
Disclaimer: I have been a hobbyist meteorologist for over 30 years here in the Mammoth area and I do this for my personal enjoyment. The National Weather Service saves lives every day . . . I do not. When making important planning decisions please use information provided by the National Weather Service as they are the most knowledgeable and accurate information source available today.

5 inches of new fell on Mammoth Mt over night…..expect snow showers today

It was a wild and windy one last night……snow fall totals were 2 to 4 inches in town while Ski Patrol reported 5 inches on the pillow at 9000feet.

The center of the upper low was moving from Bodie, Ca into Nevada late this morning….tracking South East.  Expect some wrap around showers today but do not expect a lot of accumulation. An inch or so max….

However it will remain quite breezy over the upper elevations and with Highs in the 20s on the hill it will feel wintery!

Outlook and Discussion:

The mean 5 to 7 day 500MB long wave pattern will be one of retrogression and wavelength adjustment across the Conus as a strong trof remains anchored along the west coast. Short wave energy will again approach California Monday night and Tuesday with short wave energy initiating strong gust winds, possible showers Wednesday afternoon and evening and much cooler then normal temps. The following system for the next weekend may become the cut-off low earlier discussed. 


Dr Howard and the Dweebs……………………..:-)





————————————————-
Reference Glossary of Weather Terms
Disclaimer: I have been a hobbyist meteorologist for over 30 years here in the Mammoth area and I do this for my personal enjoyment. The National Weather Service saves lives every day . . . I do not. When making important planning decisions please use information provided by the National Weather Service as they are the most knowledgeable and accurate information source available today.

Chilly Unsetteled Weather Today With Strong Winds and Snow By Midnight The Highlights….

Quick Update for snowfall amounts:

 

2 to 4 inches in town

5 to 7 inches on Mammoth Mt

between tonight and mid morning

 

 

It it Spring Yet? I guess this is Spring….. Windy…chilly and snow by Midnight….

Current Conditions at 9:00am….

41 degrees at 8200 feet

28 Degrees at 11,000 with 90mph gusts!

Winds are gusting 30 to 40mph at resort levels.

Wind Advisories have been hoisted for Mono County. A High Wind Warning goes into effect at 2:00pm for the Owens Valley.

At 9:00am A cold upper low was centered over the Central Oregon coast with an HT 500 545DM center.

At 300mb….a cyclonically curved upper jet of 125 knots was across Northern Ca. This upper jet will shift through the Central Sierra tonight then south through Mammoth by Morning. Plenty of over water trajectory will transport moisture into the sierra late tonight and into Sunday am for accumulating snowfall of some 2 to 4 inches over the upper elevations over the next 30 hours. Strong gusty winds will be the theme today.

The upper HT 500 low will track SSE and will be located over SAC by 2:00am Sunday morning and will transit the Sierra as a 542dm center before 5:00am Sunday morning. UVM will rapidly increase by 8:00pm this evening and remain strong through 5:00am Sunday….then begin to diminish after 8:00am Sunday. By 11:00 the main UVM (upward vertical motion) will be over the Southern Sierra. Snowfall over the Central Sierra will be more scattered during the PM hours Sunday. A 540DM 500-1000thickness iso-hyet arrives in Mammoth at 2:00am. That is equal to about a 4000ft snow level. Needless to say that in wind protected areas of Bishop, early morning temps will flirt with the freezing mark for a short period of time. High temps in the residential sections of Mammoth will drop into the upper teens to low 20s Sunday morning then climb into the 30s Sunday Pm. This is quite the chilly system.


OUTLOOK:

There is one more system in the chain that will effect California Mid Week. This is actually an interesting scenario. What is happening is that there is going to be a fundamental change in the pattern next week into the next. Strong retrogression of an upper level ridge that will form over the Ohio Valley may cause the next system to become cut-off over, or near California. The Dweebs are not sure how this will all work out quite yet. However, the screaming message is that a fundamental transition in the pattern will occur as heights really increase over the far west causing the westerlies to weaken and jump to the north. This may be an end to an unbelievable long winter!

As far as this next storm goes……Initially, this system comes in to the far west as another chilly closed upper low, with wind and a chance of showers. As the center of an upper ridge retrogrades westward to Northern Texas, the west coast Trof gets stuck….somewhere near the west coast. Will this system progresses east, NE, or cut-off over California or just off shore? Will it become a long term cut-off low trapped within a full latitude upper ridge left to die on the vine? We may get caught up in a late Spring thunderstorm pattern. As if this system cuts off and develops in the right spot offshore, and temps soar within the upper ridge, a springtime convective TSRW pattern may develop over the sierra.  Lots to look at and think about the next week and beyond……See Yea!



The Dweeber…………………………..:-)



————————————————-
Reference Glossary of Weather Terms
Disclaimer: I have been a hobbyist meteorologist for over 30 years here in the Mammoth area and I do this for my personal enjoyment. The National Weather Service saves lives every day . . . I do not. When making important planning decisions please use information provided by the National Weather Service as they are the most knowledgeable and accurate information source available today.