Warmer the next two days then breezy and cooler Wednesday, as cold core low moves through northern and Central Ca…Still looking for toasty holiday weekend….

Brief update this Sunday to say that weak short wave ridging will warm things up a bit today….expect highs into the mid 70s, and upper 70s for Mammoth Monday. The winds will pick up Tuesday in advance of a strong “for this time of year”,  cold core upper low that will sweep through both Northern and Central Ca.  (See Previous discussion)   High temperatures may ony get into the upper 50and low 60s by Wednesday pm and there will be a chance of showers with snow showers in the upper elevations Wednesday morning. A chilly cold pool of 500mb-1000mb thickness of 552DM sweeps east through Alpine County Wednesday morning. Temperatures will be quite chilly Wednesday morning (low 30s) and there will be snow showers above 9000 feet. It will be breezy through out the day Wednesday as well.. Note: Winds late Tuesday night and early Wednesday morning over the sierra crest will gust into the 70 mph range.


Rapid warming will take place Thursday into the weekend will highs in the low 80 by Saturday…..

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Reference Glossary of Weather Terms
Disclaimer: I have been a hobbyist meteorologist for over 30 years here in the Mammoth area and I do this for my personal enjoyment. The National Weather Service saves lives every day . . . I do not. When making important planning decisions please use information provided by the National Weather Service as they are the most knowledgeable and accurate information source available today.

Upper Level Block Over NW Territories Has Forced Upper Jet South…..Resulting In Cooler Temps For The High Country Through Wednesday…Warmer Weather is Expected For The Holiday Weekend….Monsoon Moisture Lurking To The South Over The Holiday

Looking at the HT 500MB means for the 3, 5, 8 and 11 day period, it is clear that the current pattern will continue through Wednesday with a significant warm up there after.

The GFS day+ 3 means (through Sunday) shows the main height anomaly over British Columbia stretched NW well up into the Arctic near 140west, this block is having the effect of suppressing the upper jet into Northern Ca,  with the mean negitive height anomaly just off the Northern Ca coast. This is the reason for the cooling overthe past 24 to 36 hours. Little change in temps for the high country is expected through Sunday with highs in the low 70s.

The Day+ 5 shows the block weakening…however, heights build north of Hawaii about the latitude of Washington State, keeping long wave troffing in the same areas as it is now. However, with that said, a short wave ridge will move into California Monday for a quick bump up in temps followed by the actual long wave trof progressing inland mid week. This should result in a significant cool down and breeze-up Tuesday into Wednesday next week. There is a chance of showers anytime between Tuesday night and Wednesday night. Highs will cool to the lower 60s Wednesday. With early am temps in the low 30s.

Day+8 of the Multi-Day Ensemble Means show a strong core of positive height anomalies just south of the Western Aleutions which teleconnects to a mean trof along 160west and weak upper flow along the US Canadian border. It has been suggested that after the main long wave moves through California Wednesday/Wednesday Night, that Significant Ht 500 height rises will occur Day+ 8 into day+ 11 (July 4th) over the west coast,. A strong positive height anomaly is indicated to develop just west of Seattle.

This all adds up to a strong subtropical east-west upper ridge stretched from the Hawaiian islands north east into the desert southwest Via California. Ht 500 Heights will probably rise into the low 590s across the golden state for a perfect Holiday Weekend for the high Country.  High temps will probably be back up into the low 80s at 8000 feet. This looks like a dry pattern with only a few isolated TSRWs until about the 4th when Monsoon Moisture makes a run north out of Mexico.


Dr Howard and the Dweebs……………………………….:-)


 

 

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Reference Glossary of Weather Terms
Disclaimer: I have been a hobbyist meteorologist for over 30 years here in the Mammoth area and I do this for my personal enjoyment. The National Weather Service saves lives every day . . . I do not. When making important planning decisions please use information provided by the National Weather Service as they are the most knowledgeable and accurate information source available today.

Summer Solstice To Arrive With A Bang….Hot Temps Throughout Eastern Ca…..Some Cooling Expected By The Weekend…..

Not much change to the past discussion other than to confirm that the WRF is too high on Thickness values……700mb temps a better gage and GFS the better model as far as surface features.  The High temperature forecast for Mammoth Lakes of 88 degrees is too high for Wednesday. It should be more like 82.

Bishop will get over 100 by Wednesday. Wednesday/Thursday probably 100 to 102 a the airport.


The rest of the discussion from yesterday still holds……………………….



The Dweeber…………………..:-)

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Reference Glossary of Weather Terms
Disclaimer: I have been a hobbyist meteorologist for over 30 years here in the Mammoth area and I do this for my personal enjoyment. The National Weather Service saves lives every day . . . I do not. When making important planning decisions please use information provided by the National Weather Service as they are the most knowledgeable and accurate information source available today.