Fab Weekend Followed By Fab Snowfall Later In The Week

OK……Here we go…..

First of all…This is not just any La Nina Winter….This is La Nina on Steroids…..Check this out for 12-10-2010.  http://weather.unisys.com/surface/sst_anom.html  Look at the  nose of the western extension of the cold/negative SSTAs all the way to 150E!  And….what the heck is this? Another extension of La Nina off South America from 70w/25S feeding into the main cold stream to 150w?   Also Solar Cycle 24 is an incipient maladroit. Will it get going before it is over…..Solar Global Cooling?

FLASH!  The warm wet pattern of Wednesday through Friday is over. A highly amplified upper ridge has taken over and we’ll have fabulous weather through Sunday!  The 500ht 588dm height line gets very close to Bishop Sunday AM. Still going with a 70 for Bishop Sunday. These temps are 15 to 20 degrees above normal.

Now on to next week.  First of all….Yes, it is going to snow. The question is always, how much.  The short answer is a lot. However, it may take a good part of next week and into the following week to get the fuse lit. 

Some considerations…

I like what MJO is doing…  It is well into the Phase 5 and still building in strength contrary to some dynamic models. It should move into Phase 6 soon. Hope she holds together Scotti! I am attributing at  least some support of the change in the pattern next week to MJO.

Here are the ponderings:

The ECMWF and Canadian are both very wet later in the week and especially next week.  The GFS is not. The Dweebs feel that the Europien  would be the superior model to the GFS,  in handling QPF in the upcoming flow pattern for the west coast next week and into the next. So, the rational is the GFS is too dry and gets rid of the pattern too fast…in stead of developing it further.

The other supporting evidence is MJO. The Dweebs feel that next week beyond the 19th is going to be particularly wet.  However, there is the potential for rising snow levels as well! So it could get messy for a spell. I think that we will  have to be concerned about the building of the subtropical ridge at this latitude later next week; (Week-2).

The first system for Tuesday night/Wednesday does not look major. (QPF .5 to .75)

The Dweebs will fine tune snow levels later.

Bigger storm later in the week…………………Stay tuned…………:-)

Dr Howard and the Dweebs………………………….:-)

Reference Glossary of Weather Terms

Moisture Fetch To Lift North With The Upper Jet Friday Night…..Very Nice Weekend Ahead!

Anytime we get precipitation with 500mb heights in the mid 570s DM it’s ugly. At 7:00am, the Freezing Level this morning was 10,000 feet over Mammoth and our air mass was pretty much saturated from the top of Mammoth Mountain  to the bottom. As a result, the snow level was pretty close to the freezing level. Looking at the new 12z runs of the WRF and GFS this am. There is going to be a decisive shift in the upper jet later Friday to the north as the general pattern Amps. Heights by 18z Sunday over Mammoth AP are forecasted at 588dm at  500MB. These are pretty high 500mb heights for the month of December. Expect strong inversions Sunday into Monday with highs at 8000 feet close to the upper 50s.  In Bishop, the high will be about 70 degrees. The record high for Bishop this Sunday was 74 set back in 1953.

The Dweebs are still expecting progression, or at the least…enough extension of the mid pacific ridge to push a portion of the Eastern Pacific Trof into the west coast by mid week, giving Mammoth more snowfall. Another encouraging sign is that MJO now into Phase Space 5 is still strengthening and forecasted to continue doing so by most dynamic model forecasts.

Reference Glossary of Weather Terms

More Nuisance Weather On The Way This Week….Leading To A Fair Mild Weekend

Quick update this morning….

It will be pretty breezy in town and windy up on the hill today through Friday morning.  Periods 0f Snow and Rain showers are expected beginning late today…then through Friday morning with unsettled weather continuing through Friday night. Highs will be in the 40s and lows in the 20s and 30s. The snow level will remain high….at or above 8000 feet.

Expect a fair weekend with an especially nice Sunday. Highs will climb into the upper 50s in Mammoth. Next storm…”about” the middle of next week.

As a note….A very strong high latitude blocking pattern persists through Sunday with ridges over Greenland/Iceland and over the Western Aleutians. This is keeping up strong negative AO and NAO values and locking in a deep anomalous Trof over the eastern portions of the US and the Eastern Pacific. This will certainly test the strength of the upper jet coming off Asia for a hopeful pattern change here in California.  However, it is always possible that the block may too strong to break down.

More details to follow in the coming days……………

Dr  Howard and the Dweebs………………………….:-)

Reference Glossary of Weather Terms