A last day spike in high temps will occur today then a cooling trend through early next week….Snowfall is expected beginning later Friday for the upper elevations with the snow level lowering throughout the weekend……Heavy snowfall is expected later Saturday and Saturday night with Winter Storm Conditions….Storm Door to remain open for at least another week…….

11/2/2017 Thursday AM update:

European Model wins out!

The European model’s exceptional physic’s has been consistent in indicating a much less AR for the Central and Southern Sierra from the beginning. The GFS has now come in line with the Euro and diminishes the subtropical fetch from the SW into the Central and Southern Sierra.  The WPC that touted over 3 inches of water EQ some 3 to 4 days ago has really back peddled on the QPF the past 24 hours.   In addition, the emphasis of the QPF is now the Northern Sierra like the EURO has touted all along, not the wetter and further south Canadian and GFS models.

What does this mean?   Although it will be snow in town for the most part for the entire storm, amounts will be less than a foot; more like 4 to 8 inches while the upper elevations will squeak out a foot or a bit better, especially over the crest where orographic’s will come into play, It is possible that accumulations over Mammoth Mt may be between 12 to 18 inches this weekend, especially considering the snow to water ratio which will be about 12:1 over the upper elevations 10,000’+ on Sunday.

 

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12:45PM 11/1/17 update:

 

Latest 12z Global models runs are in now and the big message is that the GFS has been too wet hanging on to the “AR” too long. The European model has always been regarded as the gold standard in many ways. Although it is not “Always” correct, it is the most correct model most often in my opinion, especially when it is consistent against a consistent GFS.

So here is my updated thinking at the moment for snowfall amounts for the greater Mammoth Area.

1 to 2 feet at and above 9,000 feet by Monday AM

6 to 12 inches in the town of Mammoth the same time frame.

 


FROM 9:30am 11/1/17

There is enough consistency in the models for Mono County’s first winter storm that will bring up to a foot+ of snow in the Town of Mammoth, beginning by Friday night and throughout the days Saturday and Sunday….The Snow Level will eventually fall to between 5000 and 6000 feet before this storm is over sometime Monday. Most of the precipitation will fall as snow in the Town of Mammoth.  I am doing a blend now of the ECMWF and GFS as they have been consistent with the effects of the AR in their own right, but still differ quite a bit from each other, The Dweebs feel that  between 15 to 30 inches of snow is possible over the higher terrain above 9000 feet over the weekend.

Of course if the GFS’s handling of the AR is better, greater amounts would occur. Both the GFS and Canadian Models handle the phasing of the southern branch of the Polar Jet more favorably for snowfall for the Central Sierra than the European. They target the northern parts of the Southern Sierra and especially the Central Sierra best by keep the “AR” going another 24 hours!!  With still 3 days before the event, there is still time to make adjustments, both to snowfall estimates in town and over the crest. It is possible that amounts could go significantly higher if the European should agree more toward the GFS by a more enhanced and protracted AR.  At time, the European is not as wet here with more emphasis on the Northern Sierra.

The main message here is that winter weather conditions will arrive in the sierra this weekend, and once the snow in on the ground at Resorts levels and the higher elevations, it will be here to stay for the next 5 to 6 months….

Hope you all have had a great Summer and Fall…..Mammoth is now ready for its other seasons……

 

The Extended shows another storm about the middle of next week.

 

Dr. Howard and the Dweebs……………………..:-)

Beautiful mid-afternoon Mammatus Clouds off to the NNW….Earlier, pleanty of Virga to our West….Upper Flow at 500MB out of the north now……Weekend Storm still in forecast with strong support from all global models…Colder weather expected the following week….

All Hallows Eve

2:30PM update on Models…  (Absolutely no help!!   Euro is still under an inch of PWAT with a relatively short-term wet event with the GFS now showing a more protracted AR event lasting for 2 days!  So the EC is now less exciting and the GFS more exciting!

Kind of a spooky outlook this morning…

Few nice days ahead with cooler temperatures

Windy Friday afternoon and night..

Snow Saturday and Sunday…

Big question is still why is the European model not showing much of any “AR”?

Forecast amounts are based upon this fact this AM with 1 to 3 feet a possibility….  3 feet if the American and Canadian models are correct over the crest.

Longer Range:

I am just beginning to see the eyes of the winter now….At least for November. There is plenty of anomalous warm water in the Bering Sea somewhat like last winter but not to the same extent. The latest ECMWF 45 day 500MB heights across the north pacific or longer range is showing more of a persistent   -EPO and -WPO teleconnection like last winter….Not sure if that will continue but it is nice to see.

At least for the month of November, it is looking very good for a lot of snow for the California Sierra before Thanksgiving!  The pattern suggests plenty of “AR” possibilities…

Remember,…According to the data I have from some prominent meteorologist’s, the ENSO 3.4 region, has the area between Weak EL Nino and Weak La Nina   IE ENSO +0.5 El Nino to  -0.5 Weak La Nina with the highest odds of AR events on the west coast.

The La Nina this winter is forecasted to be a bit stronger than that, however, not a lot stronger!  Thus, I expect several good AR’s this winter for Northern and Central CA! However, unlike last winter, there is likely to be longer breaks between events.

 

The Dweeber……………………..:-)

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Even though daytime surface convection is now over that it is almost November, upper level CAPE allowed a beautiful display of Mammatus during mid afternoon to develop above 18,000 feet to our NNW. Our fair weather ridge that brought the last days of early Fall like weather has retrograded west to 145West where there is an anti cyclone developed some 1,400 Miles west of Vancouver Island, Canada. This allowed an East/West Trof to move south down over California to bring mainly high clouds and cooling which it has. The High temperature today at the Village was 61 degrees, a full 9 degrees cooler than Sunday.

Further retrogression is expected in the ridge over the next 5 days to a location of latitude north of Hawaiian Islands but up in the Gulf of AK. A long wave trof is forecasted to develop later this week. Even though the guidance suggests between 2 and 3 feet of snow over the crest, the Dweebs are not ready to buy into it quite yet as the models have not gotten into agreement in regards to the small AR forecasted by the GFS on Saturday. So yes, snow fall, but a wait and see which way the models go as far as the AR.  We may have a small AR or we might not. That will determine the amounts of snowfall over the higher elevations. A couple of more days should iron it all out.

MJO:

The Madden Julian Oscillation is in phase 8 today on the RIMM. It is strong but beginning to weaken as it heads for Phase 1 and then weakly into phase 2. The -EPO is associated with this tropical mode.  It is going to be colder than normal this weekend well into the next with the possibility of yet another upper trof..

 

Will update Thursday or sooner if the models look more reasonable….

 

Dr Howard and the Dweebs…………………………….:-)

Record breaking October heat wave to slowly break after mid-week with important changes ahead for the first week of November….

 

OCT 30th….

Update later today on the weekend storm and beyond……:-)

 

October 26th:
Comments:

Very strong Blocking signature still evident in both -EPO and -WPO teleconnection, Especially the -EPO. This is profound!
Main Message is still for the possibility of a storm cycle beginning during at some point the first week of November…..
Global models struggling but ensembles beginning to show a better picture….Best Odds of a significant storm as indicated in my discussion on the 24th below, the weekend after Halloween.

October 24th Update:

Note: Many of Last years weather letter subscriber’s have contacted me about subscribing to the weather letter again this year. Although I really appreciated the compensation that it gave my partner Ted and I during the greatest winter for Precipitation in over 100 years, I have decided to revert to the Dr. Howard and the Dweebs report for free once again! I found that the timing of the reports were too confining. When weather changes occur, I want my followers to know immediately, not have to wait until the next report which could be days away! I also do not want to update daily if I choose not to. If in the future, this is something that can be modified, the weather letter will resume, “Web Based”. Until then, it is free for all to enjoy, as much as I enjoy writing it! 🙂

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Medium and longer range forecasts and outlooks are working out well this morning as the MJO’s upper divergent and upper convergent envelope continues progressive and “strong”!! The Key with the MJO in the Western Pacific as it relates to west coast weather is whether the typhoons spawned, constructively phase or destructively phase with the westerlies. (“PS” Thanks Tom C for the excellent lessons on this subject over the many years) 🙂

We are now experiencing the results of the destructive phasing and corresponding enhanced upper jet several days ago contributing to California’s record breaking late October heat wave. Expect 100s in LA today and highs near 90 in Bishop CA. 90 degrees is the record high for Bishop for this date set back in 1959. Tomorrow, should 90 occur, would tie a 90 degree high so late in the year as there has never been a 90 high in Bishop, Ca beginning the 26th of October.

Looking forward:

The +PNA pattern set up is locked in this week. So you all better enjoy it! Take that trek up to Shadow Lake, Lake Ediza or even Iceberg Lake in one day if your up to it!
The MJO is on the MOVE. It is strong and forecasted to cross phase spaces 8/1 in the RIMM. The EC is pretty weak with it in that area and the GFS is much stronger. The Dweebs believe a blend of the two is most likely the scenario. What is fun to watch is that fact that the models rarely pick up on the expected changes in the pattern until later in the game. The GFS as of this morning is starting to pick up on the retrogression the Dweebs were chatting about back on the 19th of October. (See discussion below). Retrogression of the long wave features is clearly in the picture for the Eastern Pacific next week…..In fact a significant Rain/snow producing storm is possible by about the weekend after Halloween. On another note, the pattern change is associated with the negative phase of both the EPO and WPO, and so an “AR” event is certainly possible as well. Soon other Weather Weenies will begin to tout about the change in their personal discussion’s! 😉

Dr Howard and the Dweebs……………….:-)