Winter Storm Warning has been hoisted for the Eastern Sierra For Friday Night through Sunday Noon…..1 to 2 feet expected for the Town and 2 to 3 feet for Mammoth Mt by Sunday Noon…..The Following week looks Dry……

4:00PM Saturday the 7th…

Its been a wet day in the high country.  Mammoth Mountain has picked up about 6 inches at the main lodge at 4:00PM with just slop in town. It is possibly that the upper Mt may have received about 9 inches as an est.   Tonight is the night for snow as the cold front approaches.  We could still get another foot at the village and another 12 to 18 inches on the mountain by Sunday late AM.  The Front will move through before Sunrise.  And as unstable as the system is, there may even be some thunder snow!!

Next week will be dry with the next pattern change near the Winter Solstice.  Better timing later this week…..:-)

 

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The Sat Pics this afternoon look pretty interesting. A closed low spinning about 140 west and 40 North.  The system is pretty slow moving as it bottoms out into the long wave position over the next 12 hours or so. The systems looks occluded now, but will open up Saturday Morning as it moves on shore. The wave is expected to sheer apart Sunday AM.  There is plenty of moisture with this one and good onshore flow. The initial snowfall will be from warm frontal overrunning ahead of the cold front, which will be expected to enter the region on Saturday. So Friday will see light snowfall with the heavier accumulations on Saturday. The warm front will be associated with higher snow levels as snowfall accumulation will remain above 7000 feet before the snow level coming down after the Cold FROPA Saturday. The snow level will come down to about 6,000 feet after the front passes. On Sunday expect snow showers with a snow level about 5500 feet.  AT the Moment the QPF suggests snowfall amounts into the 1 to 2 foot range around the town of Mammoth with some 2 to 3 feet on Mammoth Mt, all by this Sunday.

 

Longer Range:  It appears that the pattern will become warmer and drier next with with periods of high clouds. There is another weak weather system mid week, but it does not look very impressive. So most likely it will just bring high clouds and breeze over the upper elevations.

 

Tropical Teleconnections…

The latest CPC discussion early in the week indicated that numerous modes of tropical variability were at play across the Indian Ocean during the past week, resulting in a complicated perspective. The players are, Easterly Rossbys Waves (Gravity Waves) , an old Kelvin wave and the ongoing IOD over the Indian Ocean. The upshot was that the MJO would spend week one in phase 2 and week 2 in phases 3 and 4.   Phase 3 is wet for CA in December, so it remains to be seen if the latest 6 to 10 day and 8 to 14 day outlooks from the CPC verify much drier than normal as indicated in today’s outlook.

 

Mammoth Mountain Reports 6 feet of snow at Main Lodge kicking off the 2019/2020 ski season…..Off shore warmer-wetter system to bring light amounts of snow through Wednesday with higher snow levels…….Next colder wetter system moving in later Friday with heavy snowfall Friday night through Saturday…..Then fairly long break….

3:50PM Monday  the 2nd…

 

Snowfall is riding to our north…..Do not expect much over night or tomorrow.

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Temperatures have been pretty remarkable the past several days with strong inversions in the deserts. Last Sunday at noon it was 29 degrees at the main lodge, 23 in the Town while in bishop, 26 degrees….   The Town of Mammoth mixed out late in the afternoon Sunday as temps moved into the 30s. Bishop was still below freezing at 25.   All areas should mix out today…..

The Trof off shore is pretty unremarkable. There is a lot of moisture, but the stream is pretty narrow. Additionally, the area of lift over the sierra is non impressive with most of it north of Mammoth Lakes today. Because of the rising temps, snowfall in the town will be light. 1 to 3 inches today with possibly 5 inches on the mountain. The upper low west of the OR/CA border will retrograde SW tomorrow. That will allow a small ridge to develop over CA Tuesday and end any significant precipitation over the state. However, the upper low will move back toward the coast Tuesday night. This is the colder part of the current system. Snowfall will move back into the Sierra Late Tuesday night into Wednesday.  Snowfall amounts are problematic and the low is filling, somewhat cut off from the westerlies and its position to our area critical to snowfall amounts. At this time, the 12z models are putting much of the snow fall to the north of Mammoth, but that may change. Either way, this system is not a big deal…….3 to 6 inches?  Update tomorrow.

 

Of more significance is the Friday night and Saturday storm which many be between a 2 and 3 footer.   It is not a big storm but is slow moving. Clean up day is Sunday. Well have an extended break after that.

 

Dr Howard and the Dweebs…….:-)

All Systems Go For the First Major Storm for the Eastern Sierra….This will be a one two punch as a warmer wetter system arrives Saturday over Cold Air in place….

Winter Storm Warnings are hoisted for the Eastern Sierra beginning at 7:00PM Tonight through 7:00PM Thursday night.   For the Owens Valley, the Warning begins at 5:00PM this afternoon through Friday Morning at 5:00AM

The highlights with the Sierra part of the storm will be Blizzard conditions tonight and the potential for temporary road closures during blizzard conditions. Less windy condition are expected later Wednesday….

The Village at Mammoth still looks to receive over 2 feet of snow and the upper mountain about 3 feet by Thursday.  It will be cold in town with highs upper teens Thursday and Friday. Lows well down to the single digits.

 

There will be a break in the weather Friday afternoon and night with a wetter storm moving in Saturday. This system has a narrow AR connected to it. It will begin as all snow over the lowest elevations of the county then the snow level will come up Sunday and Monday. The big questions is, how much snow will the Owens Valley get on Saturday from this small AR? The Snow is likely to change to rain later in the morning Sunday….

 

For the Mammoth Area, another 2 to 3 feet is certainly possible for the Saturday through Tuesday System. I will update the longer range for next week later this week. However, there appears to be a major AR type storm with a fetch extending well west across the pacific lurking in our future around the 6th or 7th of December….

 

Based upon current trends…..The Christmas Holidays should offer plenty of Snow pack for all outdoor enthusiasts..

 

Dr Howard and the Dweebs…………………..:-)