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  • Series of storms headed into California over the next two weeks…..Squirrely Models doing their best to drive forecasters Nutty!
    12/1/2022 As of 4:30PM Mammoth Mt at the Main Lodge has picked up 12 inches of new snow since 6:00AM ____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ Normally, when you get within 72 hours ahead of an active weather pattern, the global models have a good handel on the details of the weather systems that will affect the Sierra.  Not this time!  Timing issues and Quanitative Precipitation forecasts, (Amounts of snowfall) in our case, keep changing every 6 hours! Nothing major, but a pain in the Derriere`. The differences are some 1 to 2 feet.   The models have been flipping back and forth the past two days. What’s the latest?  Were back to 3 to 5 feet on the Mammoth Mountain by Monday. The latest details suggest: Storm 1 beginning Thursday Mid Morning in Southern Mono County, then a break Friday into Early Saturday AM. Storm #2 Begins Later in the morning Saturday and ends late Monday AM. Snowfall totals; Based on the new at this time 18Z GFS run. Storm number one, 1 to 2 feet. Storm number two, 18 to 36 inches. So 2 to 3 feet from 8000 feet to the Mammoth Mt Suimmit. More details; 1st system has weak Atmospheric River coupled with Polar Jet with Mammoth under Right Rear Entry region with good upper level divergence. The polar jetlet moves through pretty quickly Thursday night for a dry day Friday. 2nd system is just as interesting or even more so as it slows down, becomes part of a quasi mid level omega blocking pattern, long enough to allow the AR to lift back north into Central CA Saturday afternoon and evening. The slower speed of the closed low offers a more protracted precip event Saturday PM though Sunday, as the upper jet remains coupled with the subtropical jet through Monday AM. Quite the feat! Finally the Polar jet axis is south of Mammoth, during the afternoon Monday. Just a word of interest: Winds at 10,000 feet will be “Orthrogonal” to the Sierra Thursday afternoon into the night.  Then Orthrogonal again Saturday afternoon through Sunday night!! It is possible that the models are under playing the Snowfall Totals here as the Bullseye for this pattern with the 2nd storm, looks to be Southern Mono County south to the Central Southern SIerra.  With the upper Jets coupled for 4 days, no telling what we may get! 😉   Dr Howard and the Dweebs..    

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