Unsettled Weather to continue through Tuesday with the storm track mainly to our north…..Expect light Snow Sunday with Snow Showers possible Tuesday…..Warm up and Dry Thursday through Sunday Next Week…..

This is just a quick update on the Sunday AM storm. CRFC came out slightly wetter this morning for the Sunday system for Yosemite than yesterday.  Snowfall still in the light category. (1 to 6 inches.)  My Estimate is 2 to 4 inches on Mammoth Mt with 1 to 2 inches in town by Sunday night.  I anticipate a burst of precipitation Sunday Early-Mid morning…..Snow level on Sunday 6500 FEET

 

It will be unsettled early next week with a few snow showers possible at times.  The Upper Jet moves north on Wednesday, then way up there in Canada by Friday and Saturday.  This is a new weather type with exceptionally high 500mb heights Thursday into Saturday.  The GFS keeps the heights high through Super Sunday as the Ground Hog is expected to see his shadow. He May need Shades and Suntan location…. The Euro has a front coming in Sunday night…..Well See.

 

Go 49er’s!!!

 

The Dweeber……………….

 

High clouds continue to flood into Central California creating more grey days……Forecast Models have now backed off favorable tropical forcing for CA……next significant system the end of this week…..

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January 21st Update:

No real changes today with the wave coming through tonight and again Sunday.  I had a look the 500mb Vort field for the 26th.  The consensus is that the short wave is going to split over Central CA, including the vorticity field Sunday. This makes for a challenging outlook precip wise, for Mammoth. The Dweebs will update in a few days.   Needless to say, Tahoe will do much better with this storm than Mammoth. The following week shows the upper jet pushing further north, and so it looks mild and dry.

Next Storm Possibility around the 4th of February….

 

The Dweeber……………………:-)

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The MJO has done an about face this morning in backing off on a significant -EPO and -WPO teleconnection for the end of the week. All models now rapidly weaken the MJO in phase 7.   This means the the upper jet will remain to our north this week. That Is not to say that there will not be some very light snowfall.

Outside of the high level tropical moisture covering Central California on and off this week, there will be two waves of low pressure that will come through. One Tuesday and the other the end of this week.  At the moment, the jet stream remains to our north on these systems. The Tuesday storm shows only .10 inches of moisture giving possibly up to an inch of snow over the crest for Mammoth Mt Tuesday night.  Next weekend could bring light to possibly moderate snow fall to Mammoth Mt, Saturday night through Sunday night.  The Dweebs will just have to keep an eye on the upper jet..

Temperatures this week look to be in the upper 30s to mid 40s in town, with lows in the 20s. Winds will be on the lighter side in town with moderate winds Tuesday over the crest to 55 mph. Winds will be light to moderate on Mammoth Mtn this week until next weekend when they will pickup substantially.

At this time no major storms are expected for Mammoth Lakes…this week…

However, in some of the models…the upper jet gets closer to our area briefly….Saturday night and Sunday this week….that would have the best chance of moderate snowfall…..maybe….

 

Dr Howard and the Dweebs………..

Moderate storm dumps 7 to 10 inches on Mammoth Mt….Next weather system warmer for Tuesday, with track mostly to the north….Still tracking the MJO

1-18-2020) 3:00PM

FLASH!!    

New 6 to 10 day CPC outlook shows -EPO!!

Westerlies undercutting the Western AK Block.

This is the First Model Alert of a Possible wet pattern developing for the central west coast in the 6 to 10 day outlook!!  (Possible AR)

 

More Later…..

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Our strong short wave Trof did not waste anytime moving through last night. Although snowfall amounts were still in the moderate range; low end…. 7 to 10 inches, I was expecting more based upon the guidance.  Today is a beautiful day.  Fresh powder on Mammoth Mt with decreasing winds…  Highs in the low 30s in town… Lots of high clouds…

 

WX Pattern;

Latest Satellite imagery shows quite the storm to the Northwest. The pacific has indeed opened up. This wave will hit the Pacific NW and BC coast Saturday with a lot of rain and wind. Central CA will be spared. However, there is a wave north of Hawaii this morning that is drawing in subtropical moisture. The flow down stream over CA will provide for considerable high cloudiness on and off through the weekend. The next wave related to the polar Jet will track further south next week and tap more of this moisture.  So far the guidance shows most of the precip going well to our north Tuesday. Light amounts expected over the upper elevations…. Thursday through the following Sunday looks dry for now….

 

MJO:

 

OK Here I go again with the MJO….

The CFS and JMAN are outliers of all the other models. The CPC thinks that there is a false signal because of the decaying +IOD, bias toward phase 3 and 4.  They feel that there is a chance of the MJO getting into Phase 8. See RMM  below.

Why is this important?   First of all, none of the other models show the MJO into phase 8. So none of the Models show the amplification that would result in a blocking high over AK that phase 7/8 often creates.

As indicated by the CPC….”It should be noted that this MJO event could lead to a regime change for North America, specifically the contiguous U.S.   Phase 7/8 events tend to favor below average temperatures over the eastern U.S” also Possible AR events on the west coast.

Here is the key….watch the EPO and WPO teleconnections.  If they go negative,  the Westerlies will be shunted to the south.

 

Dr Howard and the a Dweebs…….