Its the end of the 70s…..And welcome to the big chill? Best throughts would be to clean up Mammoth’s Air this weekend!….Before it gets warmer again!

Were on the home stretch ending the month of October.  The MJO is stuck in phase 5, and for this time of the year, because of where the tropical convection is over the far Western Pacific, the Rossby Wave train is up and over the top of the “far west”. Actually, the fact that the MJO has been struck in phase 5 for pretty much the entire month of October is pretty remarkable. The results have been an extended fire season over California which is ongoing.

This weekends weather shows’ a cool down. But not the rumored temperatures crashes down into the single digits in Mammoth. We may get into the upper teens at best by Monday AM. You see there is more then one global model, and, they do not agree on how much cooling there will be.  So lows in the 15 to 20 degrees for Monday AM is the most likely range.  Not the single digits rumored.  Daytime highs in Monday will be possibly in the upper 30s? Monday.    As a note, when looking at the forecasts for Mammoth Lakes, it is EZ to get confused about the temperature forecasts.  When reading the zone forecast for Mono County, the low temperatures during (Still Air) are for elevations along Highway 395. It is often up to 10 warmer in the TOMLs,  than those forecasts. Here is the temperature forecast for the next 7 days for the Town of Mammoth. The temps reflect the lows for that morning first.  As you can see, the present forecast calls for lows in the 20s for the most part, early next week.

Note, The weekend system is pretty dry coming in. The upper jet is mainly to our east with downward vertical motion. So do not expect a lot of precip,  just light amounts “If any” Sunday/Night  Best feature of this system is to help with the Creek fire and for home owners to order their wood and purchase wood pellets!!  🙂

Thursday Friday Saturday Sunday Monday Tuesday Wednesday

40/67    35/66    35/61    33/50    19/40     22/52     29/59

 

What the Dweebs see in the longer range is a warm up that following week into the first few days of November. Then a few migratory short wave trofs from the west. The upper jet at the moment, is forecasted too far north to do much good for Central CA. Just wind and cooling and clouds and possibly some showers.  We need the MJO to get into the Phase’s 8, 1, 2, and 3 to get into a stormy pattern.  That will be hard to do with the current La Nina base state at this time. Later in the season the trofs will be stronger. Nevertheless they will be fighting the tropical convection displaced westward and the destructive cool base state of La Nina.  There are other teleconnections that can help…more later….

 

The Dweeber…….:-)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 



Little change in the Forecast with Poor Air Quality through Wednesday….Transitional pattern underway as MJO finally forecasted through phase spaces 6 and 7……Major Cooling expected over the next Weekend…

Little in the way of change in sensable weather the next few days…. Highs in Mammoth will be in the low 70s with lows in the mid 30s. Expect very light NE breezes in the morning but not enough to help much in the poor air quality as westerly flow will resume later in the day Monday and Tuesday.  A change in the pattern is expected going into the following weekend with a fairly dry cold front expected Saturday afternoon. The front will bring both wind and cooling of between 20 to 25 degrees. Hard freeze conditions are expected next Sunday AM and daytime highs may not get out of the 30s on Sunday.  With this Great Basin Slider, will come the possibility of some high elevation snow showers and possible rain showers. The precip is classically behind the front late afternoon Saturday and night as with most Great Basin sliders. Even through we may get some precip, this is classically a dry pattern for the Central Sierra.

La Nina…..This is the tropical base state currently over the tropical pacific.  Trades are very strong north of the equator and are pushing more and more warm water to the western pacific.  The Walker Pump will continue to shift westward.  Some models suggest that this La Nina will be a strong one. And……….Although the “Bias” for Mammoth with a La Nina Winter is drier than normal. There are never any guarantees!  Overall best guess is a little drier than normal winter with some “very interesting storms!” 🙂 La Nina is expected to peak the end of December….

 

In the Meantime, after next weekends cool down, it is expected to warm up again later in the following week… But it will be very diffacult to hit 70 degrees again the last week of October!

Time to let it go!!

The Dweebs will begin to update more often in the near future….

 

If you can smell smoke and see ash, that is an indication that you should be treating air quality conditions
https://cfpub.epa.gov/airnow/index.cfm?action=aqibasics.aqi#haz

https://www.airnow.gov/?city=Mammoth%20Lakes&state=CA&country=USA

https://www.airnow.gov/aqi/aqi-basics/extremely-high-levels-of-pm25/

Limit your outdoor activities, especially children and people with chronic heart and lung diseases.
  1. Remain inside air conditioned buildings. Note: If you do not have an air conditioner, staying inside with the windows closed may be dangerous in extremely hot weather. In these cases, seek alternative shelter.
  2. If you have asthma or other lung diseases, make sure you follow your doctor’s instructions about taking your medicines and following your asthma management plan. Call your doctor if your symptoms worsen.
  3. If you are an older adult, have children, or if you have heart or lung diseases, talk with your doctor about whether you should leave the area.

Please note: Smoke is a mixture of gases and fine (microscopic) particles that can cause health problems. The PM 2.5 monitors are designed to detect these fine particles. Ash pieces, however, are much larger in size and will not be detected. If an area is covered in ash, air quality should be considered.

 

Dr Howard and the Dweebs……………………….:-)

 

 

High Pressure aloft over the far west will continue with light winds…..Warmer than normal temperatures and more often than not…Smoky Skies for Mammoth untill better control is gained over the Creek Fire….

After a decent day yesterday Friday, the smoke rolled in again early this morning with PM 2.5 counts in the hazardous range.  There was a wind shift noted at 8:00AM from the north that will improve our air quality for a while this morning. Howver the flow backs from the west again this afternoon and Smoke will once again invade our space.  Later tonight some improment expected as dranage winds carry the smoke into the Owens Valley. It will be warmer tody with highs in the low 70s and lows in the mid to upper 30s.

 

Long Range outlook is dry for the Mammoth area for the next 2 weeks. That does not precloud a system that will bring some cold and snowshowers, the end of the month. It is becoming more clear that this La Nina will result in a drier than normal winter. Split flow pattern will highlight along the west coast south of Oregon.  Lots of systems approaching the west coast that will split down the coast. We can get light snow from these systerms. 1 to 6 inches. Also, Lots of Great Basin Lows and snow showers as we go though November toward Thanksgiving.  Remember, the MJO will modulate the westerlies and have a greater effect this winter.  The Dweebs will be focusing on both the MJO location and strength as well as the AO and EPO. These three teleconnections will be key to longer range or climate outlooks.

 

Dr Howard and the Dweebs……………………..