Early Summer Pattern of Dry Weather and Breezy afternoon and evening hours will continue through July 4th with a slight cooling trend….Traditional Summer Pattern with Full-On Monsoon flow including upper dynamics to develop over the Sierra later during the 2nd week of July….

9:15 AM July 4th:

Breezy weather on tap for this Fourth of July with seasonal temperatures. Expect highs in the mid 70s today and lows in the 40s  Gusty SW winds and low humidity in the afternoon and evening hours will create critical fire conditions. Be especially careful with fire.  Subtropical ridge in the east is still forecasted to retrograde under the pacific NW Trof.  In doing so, hot temperatures are forecasted to develop over the Eastern Sierra this weekend. Initially the air mass will be dry. Over time next week,  isolated thunderstorms will develop early next week. As we go into the following weekend the subtropical continental high will develop near the four corners states which completes the seasonal transition to summer pattern climatically.  With the westerlies fully retracted back up into Canada and the upper Trof in the mean lifting out off the Pacific Northwest coast,  early next week, the Continental High will be able to set up for a prolonged period of time. I expect this feature to become negative tilt later next week which will allow for South or Southeast flow to develop. This usually is associated with deep monsoonal flow over the Great Basin, Desert Southwest and areas of the Far West. Easterly waves, Vort maxes from subtropical disturbances may be the trigger for strong thunderstorms developing over the greater Eastern California area as we approach the weekend of the 13th and beyond. Of note, the GFS has been consistent in developing the dreaded 600 DM high at 500MB  over the Utah/Colorado border about the 17th. If that verifies, deep monsoonal moisture will invade the Far West with possible areas of heavy rain in the usual favored areas.  Along with the rain will be humidity. and possible areas of extreme heat over the west that are absent in cloud cover. One again, it will be Towns like Mammoth Lakes and June Lake that will offer the best relief for the heat.

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El Nino is developing rapidly and may reach a strong threshold of +1.5C in the Nino 3.4 region by November.  This raises the possibility of a wet Fall here in Mammoth and an early start to the ski season. September may be wet as well with Hurricane remains effecting Southern CA and the Southern Sierra.

 

Happy July Fourth!!!

 

Dr Howard and the Dweebs………….:-)

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The Northern and Central West Coast continues to experience the remains of the upper jet left over from the winter of 2018. This is evidenced by the Eastern Pacific Ridge parked out along 130west and the formation of yet another digging Trough over the pacific northwest this Tuesday and another short wave that will carve out yet another Trough further west on the Fourth of July. Both of these weather systems will bring wind and more smoke from the Lion fire eastward, as FS burn out provisions accelerate the consumption of available fuel within the fire area.

According to both the GFS and ECM models,  week 1 and 2, this should be the end of the upper jet into the central west coast as the subtropical ridge over the east, retrogrades westward and dominates the far-west by Week 2. This will also initiate the AZ/Mex Monsoon or seasonal wind which is climatically favored the middle of July for the southwest and Great Basin. So enjoy the last of the dry weather the next 6 to 10 days with only isolated TSRWs, then get ready for Summertime’s finest displays associated with SE flow by Mid-July!

In the meantime, expect a little cooler days beginning this Tuesday into Wednesday with gusty afternoon and evening SW winds up to 35 MPH. Daytime highs will cool from the low 80s today Sunday, to the mid 70s by July fourth, then 80s returns by the following weekend. That following week looks very warm with SE flow developing along with the increase of areal coverage of thunderstorms throughout the sierra later week 2.

 

Dr Howard and the Dweebs…………………..:-)

Wind Shift from back side of upper trough gives Mammoth Lakes a break from the Smoke from the Lions Fire…..Big warm up is store this weekend then a return to Gusty WSW Winds….

A Northwest flow aloft was just what the Dr ordered today, as the upper Trof that brought wind and cooling to the region mid-week, lifts out to the NE today. Its back side and NW flow aloft kept smoke confined to the west side of the Sierra this morning. Winds maybe gusty on the west side from the NE as high pressure builds in, and an off shore flow develops later today into Saturday. Tomorrows breezes will gradually be lighter,  but some what positive for keeping the smoke mostly out of the Mono County area. Sunday?? I am not too sure by the afternoon.

The next trough approaches Monday, the upper flow will once again come out of the WSW. Wind’s will be gusty from the Southwest Tuesday through Thursday next week.  For the most updated Fire Info go to: https://inciweb.nwcg.gov/incident/5850/ 

Temperatures:

Our cool down of yesterday will end and another warm up is in store for the high country beginning today and continuing through Monday.

At this time…No Monsoon is in sight for the next week…Save…Although there may be a few isolated thunderstorms Sun through Monday, but that is not a Monsoon related pattern.

 

Dr Howard and the Dweebs…………………..:-)

Warmer than Normal Temperatures Likely to Continue through the middle of next week…..Monsoon moisture to remain out of California for the next 7 days….Tropical storm will move up the Baja Coast….May bring moisture into So-Cal later the first week of July…

 

Quick visual smoke update regarding Lion fire

Spread of fire was greatly reduced over the past 24 hours   The majority of all smoke  has been absent this morning and gone from the skys over the town of mammoth. Some light smoke returned this afternoon. It appears that firefighters have really gotten the situation under control!

 

 

 

 

 

Summer has arrived and as expected this year, with above normal temps as well as the usual afternoon Zephyr breezes. Dry weather associated with west to south west flow is typical for June as although the westerlies are well to the north, they still can force a dry southwest flow into CA with the effect of shunting monsoon moisture well to the east. Thus climo suggests a dry stable air mass is quite likely for much of the last 10 days of June, post the Fathers Day, Climo Freeze.

 

OPINE:

In that we are in Solar Minimum, there are though’s that suggest that this summer will be highlighted by more troughing than usual, promoting a Summer with less than normal thunderstorms and stronger Zephyr winds. So if this is true, this summer may end up shorter and Fall weather may descend upon us earlier, if upper troughing off shore is more persistent all summer.  By the way, the NOAA is forecasting a hot summer with warmer than normal temps and with equal chances for normal precipitation for Mammoth. The infamous “Old Farmers Almanac” uses the solar cycle in part in their long-range predictions. They are calling for a dry Summer with below normal temps. This suggests to me that California will be subject to the troughing idea this summer which would also may lead to an earlier start to Winter.

EL Nino….

The El Nino drums are beating again…The spread of warm water under the surface that moves west to east just north of the equator during an El Nino development is well underway and may reach moderate strength much later this year.

See:   http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_update/wkxzteq.shtml 

 

As we know now through the many research papers, a powerhouse El Nino does not guarantee California a wet winter. The SSTA’s heat needs to be located in the right spot, “longitude wise”. Big prediction spoilers seem to be more associated with the Modoki El Nino where significantly cooler temps in comparison to the ENSO 3.4 region are located in the ENSO regions 3 and 1+2.   1+2 is along the Central American Coast.

QBO (Strato Winds along Equator) is currently in its Easterly Phase and will likely flip later this Fall. The westerly phase is more associated with El Nino.

Sunday AM Update:

6/24/2018….Did a bit more research on the currently developing El Nino. Found that the Equatorial Subsurface waters >100Meters meters below the surface is quite warm; as warm as +6F to+9F above normal in some spots. This is quite significant and leads to the potential for even a strong Event.  However, what will not be determined until much later in the year is whether this will be a “full basin” El Nino or the big let down for California, the Modoki El Nino. The latter can give California a dry winter and make for a cold Eastern US.

 

Back to Weather:

Longer Range Week two models show a strong tropical storm moving NW well off the Baja Coast.  The GFS has strong troughing for Early July possibly phasing with it.  Stay Tuned as the weather after the Fourth of July may get interesting for at the least Southern CA.

Sunday AM Update: Models are back peddling at this time for any effects from those TS upon California except for high surf on south facing beaches.

 

Dr Howard and the Dweebs………………:-)