It will be a bit cooler this week with periods of Clouds and Sun and even a little light snow at times….Pattern Change for the weekend will favor better chances of snowfall….

12/11/18 5:15pm

Attended CPC meeting….Presenter indicated that the MJO will remain active and will propagate East into the Maritime Continent. With phases 3 and 4 into January. That goes against the idea of a cold period the weekend before Christmas and leans toward above normal temps Christmas Week. More later…..

December 11th, 2018:

Below normal temperatures have arrived once again in Mammoth with Daytime high temperatures back into the upper 30 and low 40s……Nighttime lows in the teens.  Although the weather pattern is active, little in the way of any snow is expected this week. Just the possibility of some periods of light snow showers. Stronger storm energy arrives by the Sunday/Monday period. Preliminary guidance shows a moderate snow producing storm bringing the possibility of some 6 to 12 inches for the upper elevations by late Monday. The Euro model has been pretty consistent in splitting the energy just prior to this storms arrival on the west coast…So major amounts are unlikely.  If we stick with the guidance of the ECMWF global model, temperatures will moderate upwards Tuesday through Wednesday next week with the pattern becoming very amplified Friday into the weekend before Christmas. The guidance shows a very cold Great Basin low developing with a series of inside sliders. The pattern has continental air in it and that’s cold! So although at this time, a major snow producing storm is not in the cards through the weekend prior to Christmas. There are storms capable of producing light to moderate snowfall. (Moderate Snow 6-18 inches)  

MJO:   According to the CPC; The MJO is expected to play a role in the tropical-extratropical teleconnections over the next few weeks. Short-term colder-than-normal temperatures over east-central CONUS is consistent with MJO forcing, while the enhanced phase over the Indian Ocean during the next 1-2 weeks favors a warmer pattern during the second half of December for the east. This is consistent with positive Arctic Oscillation (AO) index predictions over the next two weeks.

Note; Often times when the east is warm, the west is stormy and cold….Dr Howard and the Dweebs…………:-)

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A series of weak weather systems will be affecting our region the next week with a slight chance of snow showers but no significate accumulations expected. Winds over the upper levels will gust up to 50 MPH at times.

Daytime highs will range in the 30s and even some low 40s with teens and 20s at night. The further outlook for the upcoming weekend via the GFS Global Model, show better consolidation in the upper flow that would give a better forcing mechanism and lift to west coast storms. At the present time, Southern CA appears to be out of the storm track for some time…

Dr Howard and the Dweebs……………………..:-)

Excellent Snowpack for the beginning of the 2018-2019 Ski Season with up to a 6 Foot Base….Split flow pattern returns to Eastern Pacific offering a Drier Pattern for the next week to ten days with only a few periods of snow showers…..Next Signifacant Stormy Period about the 17th……

Saturday AM:

The headliner says it all…Storm systems will run into Higher Heights as they approach the west coast next week, causing them to weaken, dampen out and even split once inland. This is likely to continue for a full week. There are a few quasi NW or inside sliders that will traverse through as well next week. Any of these systems can produce cooling and wind over the upper elevations…..And of course some snow showers.  However, very light if any accumulations are expected.

The Eastern Pacific will become more conducive in allowing stronger weather systems back into the central west coast beginning as early as next weekend. However, a more likely period will be very early that following week. The storms look to be accompanied by some fairly strong winds!

More Later next week……

Dr Howard and the Dweebs…………………:-)

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This will be a short update….  However I will elaborate further, later this afternoon after the next two sets of WX ensembles are out.  The main idea is headlined above with an EP split flow pattern with WX systems dampening or splitting as they progress through the central west coast.  (Very Common Pattern)  We will have a beautiful sunny weekend on tap with a bit cooler than normal temps…. highs in the low 40s;  Lows in the teens.  The snow will be dry and crispy and great for the ego!!  🙂  Next Storm Cycle About the 17th….

Upper low to move through Southern CA Tomorrow….There will be areas of some heavy rain….Split flow Blues arrives for California through mid month….

 

With a 6 foot Base on top, Mammoth Mt has the most snow reported in the country!!

Thursday AM:

As the upper low off the coast of Southern Ca kicks inland to day, expect lingering snow showers with little or no accumulations. Highs to day will be near freezing in town with lows in the teens.   It will be fair and warmer over the weekend with highs in the 40s and lows in the teens.

Next splitting weather system early next week with light amounts expected.

 

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There have been some important changes in the forecast progs the last 24 hours and some that have been in the making for the past 3 days..

  1. Upper low and its dynamics “will now move through Southern California Thursday”. The core of the low moves over Malibu Early Thursday AM.   However, the core usually does not have the heavier rains! I hope you folks in the MB foothills dodge a bullet!! However, there are other burn scare areas of concern like the Anaheim hills. You folks may have some very heavy convective showers Thursday.
  2. Split flow blues…   A new feature in the 5 day means will force splitting of WX systems along the west coast. This feature is a negative upper height anomaly over the Southern part of the CONUS.  Looking at both global models, EC and GFS, it takes until mid month for it to move out off into the Atlantic. Until then, weather systems “WX SYSTEMS” (WX is international acronym for weather) will split more often than not as they approach the west coast. The track of the southern branch of the split will determine whether LA gets more rain and if Mammoth will get more snow from the Monday/Tuesday WX system. The timing of the split and location all come into play for the weatherman and the models will do their best to resolve.
  3. Silliness; Just have to bring it back; Split Flow Blues sung to Jan and Deans Mighty GTO.
  4. I got the split flows blues…..yea on on my mind…..
    Systems splittening off the west coast…. wasting all my time….
    If it doesn’t snow soon, I’m gonna loose my mind….. yea yea.
    These storms are splitten up, breaking up….wipen out….split flow
    blues….
    I’m gonna save all my money……Gonna save my dimes…..
    I’m gonna catch the next plane….where the powder is fine
    Got my DC’s and Super S’s packed…..I’m Dreamin of- the- time….yea yea…
    These storms are splitting up… breaking up…. drying out….. split flow blues.

Short and Medium Term Forecast

New track of upper low will offer the possibility of Snowfall to near or the valley floor of the Owens Valley, Mainly late tonight into Thursday Morning. Some areas may get up to 7 inches over a 12 to 15 hour period.

For Mammoth, our best shot of precip will be tonight into Thursday AM in the southerly flow after the closed low opens into a trough. I expect another 2 inches of snow to as much as 5 inches over the higher terrain. This will all be followed by a fair weekend with milder temps by Saturday and Sunday. (mid 40s) during the day.

 

Dr Howard and the Dweebs………….:-)