Strong Wind Chills of yesterday have abated while warming today will push highs into the mid 30s!….This weekend will be Breezy or Windy with the chance of Snow…..

1/25/2023

Wednesday AM update;

Model runs still look good but not as wet with the Sunday-Monday system. About .75 of an inch of QPF looks good for the Sierra Crest. This means a good foot of snow at the higher elevations as snow to water ratios by Monday afternoon, 15:1 or better. Modified Arctic Air is still being pulled SW from Central Canada for a very cold early next week. Mondays highs could be in the teens in town, with below zero temps Monday night. This is a classic response to La Nina which has strengthened a bit in the past week or so.

 

Longer Range:

I have posted the MJO and Phase Space RMM for your perusal.

It suggests that an extended dry period is ahead of us through the middle of February. If the GEFSv12 Extended verifies, Phases 4, 5 through mid 6 are pretty dry for us. See the lag graphic and RMM chart. Each Lag is a period of 5 days. It suggests that the Pacific does not open up until the 3rd week of February into March….If the MJO remains strong, that would be our next real wet period.  With that said, this is subject to change if the MJO weakens.

 

 

SEE Graphics Below:

:

_______________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

Today is Tuesday and the Global Models seem to coming together with a rather cold pattern the end of this weekend into Tuesday.  The upper ridge in the Gulf of Alaska is being amplified by a “Super Bomb” spinning up off the coast of Japan this morning. and another few others following on its heals. WOW!   The cold upper Vortex associated with these surface systems has a center of 489MB just crossing into the Sea of Okhostsk. There is another in back of it, headed for the Aleutians. Through the process, a massive amount of high pressure will build down stream over the Gulf of Alaska as its punched toward the North Pole. The down stream effect, is of pulling down a lot of Arctic Air over Western Canada with even a tug of Continental Air from Hudson Bay as well.  This system is in two parts with a chilly one coming through Friday Night, mainly to the NE of us. A colder one Saturday Night into through Monday night. That one shows over water trajectory and so snowfall is expected within that time period. The system Sunday into Monday will bring a good foot of Platinum Powder. All this if the new European Model runs verifies.

QPF from EURO shows possibly a foot+ of snow, 15:1 to 20:1 by Monday night.    700MB temps are expected to get down to -18C. That means highs in Mammoth about 10F-15F degrees Monday.  This would be Bugaboo, Canada powder.

 

Note:  This pattern is still a bit of time away…Stay Tuned!

 

Dr Howard and the Dweebs…………….:-)

One last weather system moving in this afternoon, continuing Tonight into Thursday AM seem reasonable, than a drying trend into next week….

2/18/2024

1:25PM

Looks like the upper portion of Mammoth Mt will receive about 3 feet or a few inches more storm total. The forecast is for 3 to 6 inches today and tonight so 3 feet to 3.5 feet seems like storm totals by Wednesday AM.   This Wednesday night through this weekend period look pretty dry. There is a cut off low developing to our SW, well off shore mid week and developing into the lower west coast by the end of this week. It does not seem to be a system that will issue Mammoth much more than wind and cooling. The system comes in with a Cold Low to the north of us.  Both lows are pretty far from us at this time.

Well see what happens the very end of this week into early the following week with the cut off low and cold low droping from the NW. Then get ready for more weather that shows up in early March.

Howard

_____________________________________________________________________________________

What a mess for the forecast charts. Upper mountain could get 1 to 2 feet this week total and 6 to 12 inches in town. Lets hope we get a bit more. These systems are not strongly coming through the Sierra. The energy weakens over CA, Best areas coastal into interior, The storm ends Wednesday AM with dry weather Wednesday night through Friday into Saturday,

 

Howard

 

 

2/11/2024

It will be drier than normal through the middle of next week. High temps will be in the low 40s with lows in the upper teens and low 20s. High pressure is now building from the west to the east bring the change. As mentioned yesterday, we have a change in the pattern coming up Thursday with wind and clouds. Chances of precip will increase later Friday into Sunday with heavy precip begining Saturday. The following week looks stormy with periods of modearte to heavy precipatation.   Better handel on snow levels later this new week.

Howard

 

 

2/10/2024

 

A quick update to say that colder than normal temps will give way to more seasonal temps Sunday through to the middle next week. Temps will rise to the 40s with lows in the teens.  More importaintly, another signifagant Atmospheric River is possible to developing, going into next weekend. We just have to wait and see how it all comes together.

 

Will check back mid week…

Dr Howard

 

 

 

+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

Mammoth Mt Reported 3 day amounts for 41 inches and it appears we have one more system begining this afternoon, into tonight that could dump 6 to 12 inches of snow before its over Thursday.This will lead to a dry weekend.

Yesterday, the temps were 33 to 18 in the Town of Mammoth.  Crowley 35-14 and in Bishop 47 – 26 degrees.   The weekend will be milder with some north winds Sunday. Next week might include a few showers but nothing major.

After it was all said and done, the 4 to 5 feet amounts forecasted for snow on the Upper Mt, look like a reasonable result by Thursday.

 

2/7/2024

Snow Fall 2 to 5 inches in Town through Thursday and 5 to 10 inches over the Upper Mountain. same time frame. There will be snow showers Thursday and some Friday night. Expect fair dry weekend.

 

Howard