Mammoth Weather
Brought to you by Howard Sheckter
Brought to you by Howard Sheckter
1/25/2023
Wednesday AM update;
Model runs still look good but not as wet with the Sunday-Monday system. About .75 of an inch of QPF looks good for the Sierra Crest. This means a good foot of snow at the higher elevations as snow to water ratios by Monday afternoon, 15:1 or better. Modified Arctic Air is still being pulled SW from Central Canada for a very cold early next week. Mondays highs could be in the teens in town, with below zero temps Monday night. This is a classic response to La Nina which has strengthened a bit in the past week or so.
Longer Range:
I have posted the MJO and Phase Space RMM for your perusal.
It suggests that an extended dry period is ahead of us through the middle of February. If the GEFSv12 Extended verifies, Phases 4, 5 through mid 6 are pretty dry for us. See the lag graphic and RMM chart. Each Lag is a period of 5 days. It suggests that the Pacific does not open up until the 3rd week of February into March….If the MJO remains strong, that would be our next real wet period. With that said, this is subject to change if the MJO weakens.
SEE Graphics Below:
:
_______________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
Today is Tuesday and the Global Models seem to coming together with a rather cold pattern the end of this weekend into Tuesday. The upper ridge in the Gulf of Alaska is being amplified by a “Super Bomb” spinning up off the coast of Japan this morning. and another few others following on its heals. WOW! The cold upper Vortex associated with these surface systems has a center of 489MB just crossing into the Sea of Okhostsk. There is another in back of it, headed for the Aleutians. Through the process, a massive amount of high pressure will build down stream over the Gulf of Alaska as its punched toward the North Pole. The down stream effect, is of pulling down a lot of Arctic Air over Western Canada with even a tug of Continental Air from Hudson Bay as well. This system is in two parts with a chilly one coming through Friday Night, mainly to the NE of us. A colder one Saturday Night into through Monday night. That one shows over water trajectory and so snowfall is expected within that time period. The system Sunday into Monday will bring a good foot of Platinum Powder. All this if the new European Model runs verifies.
QPF from EURO shows possibly a foot+ of snow, 15:1 to 20:1 by Monday night. 700MB temps are expected to get down to -18C. That means highs in Mammoth about 10F-15F degrees Monday. This would be Bugaboo, Canada powder.
Note: This pattern is still a bit of time away…Stay Tuned!
Dr Howard and the Dweebs…………….:-)
UPDATE … A Celebration of Life will be held for Howard on Saturday October 5, 2024, from 2:00 – 5:00 pm at Mammoth Mountain Main Lodge in the Old Gondola Room.
Howard Sheckter prepared his final broadcast in July and it is posted below. Howard passed away on August 25, 2024.
Howard will be dearly missed by Mammoth, Mono County, and weather dweebs everywhere.
Today is my final broadcast. I have enjoyed every minute of providing the weather to this region—and those who love it—for over 40 years.
As my final opportunity to speak to you, I want to thank you, and tell you what a special part of my life this has been. I moved to Mammoth in September of 1978, and worked a number of odd jobs: I worked at Kittridge’s as a ski boot fitter for two winters, and worked construction during the summer. Building on my love of weather as a child, I got a chalk board and sketched weather maps and daily weather charts right there at Kittredge’s. I got on my weather soapbox and spoke to whoever would listen.
In May of 1981, KMMT wanted to start a radio weather report, and with that, my weather broadcasting career was born. Just two years later, I was actually fired for making some inaccurate forecasts. Then, John Young at KIBS hired me, and Tom Cage pushed for me to get back on the air with KMMT as well. Thankfully, the Diggernesses’ gave me a second chance. And just like that I was rolling with two radio stations. While pursuing my passion for weather, I continued to work at local places like the Hamburger Palace for a few years, which eventually became Roberto’s. I also got my real estate license in January of 1982, which turned out to be a decades-long career.
As the 80s continued, Dan McConnell started taping me for a televised weekend weather forecast, which eventually grew into a weeknight show on channel 5. At that time, weather forecasting was different: we didn’t have internet or publicly available models. I had to get weather maps from the national weather service using a 14-foot satellite dish that occupied a third of our deck. It wasn’t until the early 1990s that we had internet and I could get maps off a monitor. Now, with an internet connection, I can read maps on an iPad in CA, Mexico, or anywhere in the world, and call in my report. Over the past 20 years, it’s become clear that our winters are fluctuating widely between heavy wet winters like we just had, and very dry winters like recent years before—and while I’ve been blamed for the weather—even had an effigy of me burned at the stake—and suffered through crushing snow right there with you, I have enjoyed the process, at every phase.
On a personal level, Mammoth Lakes has been my home, my life, and my special place. I met my wife, Donna, in Mammoth in 1984 who has been a nurse at Mammoth Hospital for over 35 years. We raised our two children who went through the Mammoth school system and stayed in CA—my son as the directing surgeon of the regional burn center for the Bay Area and my daughter as the associate director of a mental health clinic in LA.
A few thank yous, as it’s time for me to hang up my weather phone. I want to thank all the Dweebers who have read my blog over the decades and Geoff McQuilkin for keeping it running. I also want to give Dan McConnell a special thanks for his partnership in broadcasting. Tom Cylke and the late Don Marcelin have been amazing mentors and taught me so much about local weather. Everyone at the national weather service in Reno for their priceless advice including taking my calls at 3am. Cliff Mann and Joani Lynch for being fantastic resources for real time weather information from Mammoth Mountain.
And most importantly, I want to thank the people of the Eastern Sierra, from the Northern Mono County line to the Southern Owens Valley and out into Western Nevada. There is no greater place to live or experience weather.
Signing off ….
Howard Sheckter