Beautiful Fall weather to continue the next 6 to 10 days with above normal temperature’s……

The 1st half of October is likely to continue the trend of above normal temperatures as the mean ridge position develops along the west coast this afternoon and slowly shifts to the Rockies week 2. High temperatures will average in the lower 70s the next 5 days then upper 60s, while lows at night average in the low 40s.  Both ECMWF AND GFS HINT at the next sensible change in the pattern about the middle of October as a cold upper low descends out of the GOA and brings the possibility of snowfall to the high country.

Record Extra Tropical Cyclone near the Aleutians to Pump up large ridge into the GOA and in turn…Sets up major Storm for CA… Weeks end into the next week.

9-18-2022 Update

This mornings model runs are continuing the recent trends of strengthening the blocking high over Texas. Thus it is less likely now that this weather system will do much in the form of precipitation for the Eastern Sierra of Mono County. RFC this morning definitely shows most significant accumulations over the coastal plane and foothills of Northern CA.

The Yosemite point forecast shows .30 total between Monday and Wednesday, when just two days ago the forecast was for over an inch. Huntington Lake forecast shows only .07 total through Wednesday.  Thus, QPF amounts will be light over the crest and even less a mile or two east, Expect a 30% chance of showers now for the resort levels, with best chance of showers late Tuesday and Wednesday.. An inch or two of snow above 10000 feet is still possible over the crest by Wednesday AM.

Outlook:

Height rises develop Thursday and continue through the last weekend of September. Temperatures rise into the low 70s next weekend for Mammoth and low 90s for Bishop.

Lows in Mammoth now in the 30s with 40s in Bishop and Mammoth over the weekend.

 

Dr Howard and the Dweebs………………………:-)

 

9/16/2022 Update

Latest 06Z and 12Z Runs show the storm developing off shore, but slowing down.  The Question this AM is its timing, as the longer it takes to come through the weaker it will be.  Latest RFC QPF for Yosemite is 1.07 this Morning.   However, amounts drop off pretty quickly th e further east you go.  So some back peddling is in order for snowfall amounts over the sierra crest do to the systems slowing. Also being considered is how warm the ground is, even above 10,000 this time of year. No doubt there is going to be accumulations over the crest, but need another day or so to resolve. High temps currently in the mid 60s will cool to the 50s by Sunday and low 50s Monday with the first below freezing temps at resort levels showing up over the next few days.

 

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What does the strongest Extra Tropical Storm for September headed toward the Aleutians have in common with west coast weather?

The deepest Storm ever recorded “for the month of September” is bombing out the next 24 hours as it heads for the Bering Sea…..939MB at the surface. This system was a typhoon, now gone extra tropical, meaning that it once had a warm core, that now has a cold core. Nevertheless, Cat 2 or 3 TS like winds are possible tomorrow AM Near Alaska as the storm skirts north of the Aleutians, headed to the Bearing Straights’.

That record deep surface low for September, will pump up a full latitude ridge into the Gulf of AK and in turn, deepen a major storm into central and Northern California Sunday into Tuesday next week.  This storm has the potential to bring over a foot of Snow over the crest above 9500 to 10000 feet Monday into Tuesday.  Additionally, the storm will really help firefighters Sunday into Monday, as solid rains will help to dampen the Mosquito fire near Lake Tahoe.

The Screaming Message is that if your going into the Back Country or are already there, be sure you have the right gear to weather a formable storm, beginning the end of this week into the next.

The Dweeber……………..:-)

Weak upper jet continues the trend of drying here in Mono County today with a stronger trof moving in later this weekend…… a little Light snowfall is possible Monday night into Wednesday…..Fair warm dry weekend to follow

Most of the moisture is gone now from the tropical influx of last week. Outside of a few remaining isolated showers today and tomorrow, temperatures will now be seasonal to a bit cooler than normal. Breezy weather to develop Saturday into Sunday as the Equinox Trof arrives Sunday into Wednesday next week. Some light snowfall is possible over the higher elevations next Monday night into Tuesday night next week. This will be associated with some pretty chilly temperature’s Sunday into Tuesday. 50s for highs and 20s and 30s lows.

Oktoberfest weekend the following weekend looks warm and fair under ridging…

Fall Equinox is the 22nd at 6:04 PM

PS  Just looked at the ECMWF Seasonal Outlook for Mammoth.   A wet November, to be followed by normal to above normal precipitation in December.   for 2023, Dryer than normal January, followed by normal to above normal precipitation for February and March.

Dr Howard and the Dweebs………………:-)