FLOOD ADVISORIES AND WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES HOISTED BY NWS….

NICE RAINS EARLY THIS MORNING IN MAMMOTH…..AS OF 7:10M .45 OF AN INCH SINCE 12:00AM AND STILL RAINING….TEMPERATURE AT 41F AT 8200, SO DEFINITELY SOME SNOW ON THE GROUND ON OL” WO0LLY…POSSIBLY AS LOW AS 9500′.

SOME THINGS TO THINK ABOUT THIS MORNING…..

1. THE LATEST “ALL SEASON REAL-TIME MULTI-VARIATE MJO INDEX” IS SHOWING A NEW MJO DEVELOPING OVER THE EASTERN INDIAN OCEAN THIS MORNING. THE NCPE “NATIONAL CENTERS FOR ENVIRONMENTAL PREDICTION-ENSEMBLES GLOBAL FORECAST SYSTEM” IS QUITE BULLISH WITH THIS MJO OVER THE NEXT TWO WEEKS, MOVING WELL INTO PHASE 6 FROM ITS CURRENT POSITION PHASE 3. THE CANADIAN AND UNITED KINGDOM ENSEMBLE MODELS HAVE THIS TROPICAL FORCING SYSTEM STRONG AS WELL FOLLOWING SUITE. AS A RESULT, THE DWEEBS EXPECT QUITE A BIT OF AMPLIFICATION OVER THE PACIFIC THE NEXT TWO WEEKS AS THE CURRENT MJO MODULATES THE WESTERLIES IN RESPONSE TO THIS TROPICAL FORCING PHENOMENON.

2. THE CENTRAL PACIFIC WARM WATER POOL IS NOW SET UP OVER THE WEST CENTRAL PACIFIC NEAR 165E…..ABOUT 25 DEGREES WEST OF WHERE IT WAS IN EARLY SEPTEMBER PRIOR TO THE CALIFORNIA HEAT WAVE FORECAST OF SOME TWO WEEKS PRIOR. I HAVE TO SAY, WITH THE WARM POOL SO FAR TO THE WEST…..NOT TOO SURE HOW THE WAVE PATTERN WILL SET UP DOWN STREAM. MAYBE THE ENSEMBLES WILL SHED SOME LIGHT ON IT WITHIN WEEK ONE.

CURRENT SYSTEM:

AS PER WRF 12Z MONDAY

NEW COOL TROF APPROACHING THE BAY AREA THIS MORNING HAS ALREADY BEGUN RIPPING AND TEARING….THE SPLITTING PROCESS WILL CONTINUE TODAY WITH 110KNOT UPPER JET ON ITS BACKSIDE. A CLOSED CENTER WILL FORM TONIGHT AS PER WRF, SE OF THE BAY AREA AND OVER THE SOUTHERN SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY WHERE IT WILL THEN REMAIN PRETTY MUCH STATIONARY FOR 24 HOURS. THEREAFTER, THE WRF WOBBLES THE CENTER JUST OFF SHORE SOUTH OF MONTEREY BAY…OFF THE CENTRAL COAST. IF THIS VERIFIES…MAMMOTH HAS GOT TO BE IN A CHERRY POSITION WITHIN THE DIVERGENT UPPER FLOW. THE BEST DEFORMATION AXIS IS OVER MONO COUNTY AND WILL SORT OF PIVOT ON AN AXIS, AS THE SYSTEMS WOBBLES ABOUT. THE 1000-500MB THICKNESS IS ABOUT 552DM SO SNOW LEVELS ABOUT 8K BEGINNING TUESDAY AM……THEN DOWN TO 7K BY WEDNESDAY AM. OF COURSE THE DWEEBS HAVE ONLY SEEN ONE MODEL THIS AM, AND THE OPERATIONAL GFS MAY BE DIFFERENT. THE LATEST QPF FROM HPC IS FOR A 3.00 BULLS-EYE OVER MAMMOTH BETWEEN 5:00AM MONDAY AND 5:00AM SATURDAY. MOST OF THIS PRECIP WILL FALL BY THURSDAY AM.