As forecasted….1 to 2 feet fell in the high country yesterday. The front came through about 6:30 pm noted by the wind-shift at Mammoth AP. Winds at 6:30pm were SW gusting to 40MPH then NE to 6 MPH by 7:00pm.  Winds were quite strong locally during the mid to late afternoon with a ground blizzard in many locations.  So far this year Mammoth Mountain has picked up 68.5 inches of snow. Although the water content may not be as high as in the past 30 years…there is a perception that the amount of snowfall so early in the season is within the realm of a 35 year event. Those that purchased a seasons pass this year will certainly get so much more then their moneys worth!


Forecast charts:

This mornings NAM/WRF showed the upper low at 12z Wednesday over Western Montana with a NW flow aloft at 18,000 feet. The upper jet is still offshore and so as the upper Trof comes in, that jet will have to follow…meaning that it will continue to be windy over the crest for sometime. 60 to 70mph winds are expected today into tonight confined to the sierra crest. There will still be  gusts  to 50mph into Thanksgiving Day. 1000-500mb thicknesses were 534dm this morning and so it is quite cold.  The coldest air is still aloft. However, once subsidence begins, that extreme cold will be be more confined to elevations 6000 to 7000 feet. Long Valley and Crowley may go to -10F or greater by tomorrow morning. At the same time, elevations above the inversion (8000ft) will get into the 30s Turkey day and even low 40s by Friday afternoon. 


Mixing will occur Saturday with the next Trof, and so the brief cold wave will come to an end. The Dweebs are not expecting a big storm over the weekend. So far then next system seems to be moisture starved with amounts well below winter weather criteria.  The next significant system will probably be around the 1st or 2nd of Dec.


Dr Howard and the Dweebs……………………….:-)



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