Another system will push into the pacific northwest tonight bringing a lot of rainfall to coastal sections Northern California northward. The upper ridge over the far west gets flattened Wednesday with the chance of some light snowfall here in Mammoth above 7500 feet, Wednesday pm into Thursday. The pattern is considered unsettled and won’t bring much in the way of precip for the Mammoth Area. Wednesday, Thursday into Friday may be unsettled… then a very nice weekend. Temps will stay mild in the 40s with over night lows in the 20 and 30s.

It will be windy Wednesday/night.


Outlook:

Yesterday and days before…the Dweebs highlighted the possibility of the enhanced tropical mode of MJO strengthening over the Maritime Continent. See the latest MJO Discussion at: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/mjoupdate.pdf

For good technical MJO explanation see: http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/MJO_summary.pdf


Those at CPC will be watching to see if the enhanced tropical rainfall mode of MJO actually develops over the Maritime Continent. (A quick look at that area looks pretty convective to me);  MJO often times modulates the westerlies when in the right phase…..Moving from the Maritime Continent to the Western Pacific. It can spawn western pacific tropical storms that effect the westerlies as well as.

The Dweebs are not sure if it is MJO that will bring about the big changes hinted in the past three runs of the global models…..

Having a look at last nights and this mornings global model runs…..ooz, o6z and 12z GFS. It is very evident that we are going to have a decisive shift in the long wave features eastward some 20+ degrees next week. This gets accomplished by a very strong, consolidated upper jet coming off Asia, extending well into the Western Pacific by mid week next week. The upstream long wave trof near Korea is extended eastward as well.

The big result is that the static block now just east of the Dateline progresses eastward to 160west and the long-wave trof shifts to 130W.  As the pattern develops further….there was suggestion in this mornings opperational 12z gfs run, that there is a break through of the westerlies under the block with a healthy subtropical branch confluent with the polar jet into Central Ca the 17th of Dec. Before that happens…the off shore trof now at 140w get pushed into the west coast about the 15th/16th.

In the meantime…enjoy the fab weekend coming up…..then get ready for some real WX next week!


The Dweeber……………….:-)


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Reference Glossary of Weather Terms