The Dweebs had some excitement this AM in looking at the new 12z Friday WRF as while the upper 500ht low deepens south at about 130 west, a nice west coast “mini-bomb” develops in the quasi difluent thickness field. The surface low goes from 1004mb late this afternoon at 00z Saturday to 975mb to 00z Monday. (5:00pm Sunday)   That’s a surface hole for you barometer watchers of 28.79!   Yea gotta like that action! 🙂  Of course no one has any instruments out there except a few Buoys/Ships.  That surface system will make for some strong winds just off shore, very rough seas and of course there will be excellent divergence aloft from the upper jet! All this Sunday morning/afternoon. LA should get some excellent rain! 

Overall…..a deepening long wave upper trof will be stationary just off the west coast through the weekend. It will deepen Sunday in response to upper jet energy down its back side. The new GFS this morning has the mean closed center west of North Central Ca late Sunday pm. The Central and Southern Sierra is favored this weekend as Orographics/moisture enhancment look fairly good in that area Sunday. (The flow at 700mb has a bit more southerly bias) The aformentioned surface low will eject northeastward to a position off the north/central Ca coast then kick inland via the Bay area with the mother, upper low Monday.

CRFC QPF:

Up to 1.00 for the crest by sunrise Saturday

Another .7 by sunrise Sunday.  So some 1 to 2 feet over the crest by Sunday AM.

2.00 is forecasted Sunday AM through Monday AM.  So considering Snow to H2O ratios…..2 feet Plus over the crest by Monday AM.

Outlook:

ECMWF and GFS has the active pattern continuing through at least mid week. The GFS has a new surface system moving in Wednesday for another signifacant storm for the Sierra. The ECMWF has the Long Wave “Reloading” Thursday into Friday for another major storm just prior to the next weekend.

Lots of snow coming over the next 5 to 7 days!


Dr Howard and the Dweebs…………………………:-)








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Reference Glossary of Weather Terms
Disclaimer: I have been a hobbyist meteorologist for over 30 years here in the Mammoth area and I do this for my personal enjoyment. The National Weather Service saves lives every day . . . I do not. When making important planning decisions please use information provided by the National Weather Service as they are the most knowledgeable and accurate information source available today.