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Archive for May, 2011
5 inches of new fell on Mammoth Mt over night…..expect snow showers today
Sunday May 29, 2011
It was a wild and windy one last night……snow fall totals were 2 to 4 inches in town while Ski Patrol reported 5 inches on the pillow at 9000feet.
The center of the upper low was moving from Bodie, Ca into Nevada late this morning….tracking South East. Expect some wrap around showers today but do not expect a lot of accumulation. An inch or so max….
However it will remain quite breezy over the upper elevations and with Highs in the 20s on the hill it will feel wintery!
Outlook and Discussion:
The mean 5 to 7 day 500MB long wave pattern will be one of retrogression and wavelength adjustment across the Conus as a strong trof remains anchored along the west coast. Short wave energy will again approach California Monday night and Tuesday with short wave energy initiating strong gust winds, possible showers Wednesday afternoon and evening and much cooler then normal temps. The following system for the next weekend may become the cut-off low earlier discussed.
Dr Howard and the Dweebs……………………..:-)
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Reference Glossary of Weather Terms
Disclaimer: I have been a hobbyist meteorologist for over 30 years here in the Mammoth area and I do this for my personal enjoyment. The National Weather Service saves lives every day . . . I do not. When making important planning decisions please use information provided by the National Weather Service as they are the most knowledgeable and accurate information source available today.
Chilly Unsetteled Weather Today With Strong Winds and Snow By Midnight The Highlights….
Saturday May 28, 2011
Quick Update for snowfall amounts:
2 to 4 inches in town
5 to 7 inches on Mammoth Mt
between tonight and mid morning
It it Spring Yet? I guess this is Spring….. Windy…chilly and snow by Midnight….
Current Conditions at 9:00am….
41 degrees at 8200 feet
28 Degrees at 11,000 with 90mph gusts!
Winds are gusting 30 to 40mph at resort levels.
Wind Advisories have been hoisted for Mono County. A High Wind Warning goes into effect at 2:00pm for the Owens Valley.
At 9:00am A cold upper low was centered over the Central Oregon coast with an HT 500 545DM center.
At 300mb….a cyclonically curved upper jet of 125 knots was across Northern Ca. This upper jet will shift through the Central Sierra tonight then south through Mammoth by Morning. Plenty of over water trajectory will transport moisture into the sierra late tonight and into Sunday am for accumulating snowfall of some 2 to 4 inches over the upper elevations over the next 30 hours. Strong gusty winds will be the theme today.
The upper HT 500 low will track SSE and will be located over SAC by 2:00am Sunday morning and will transit the Sierra as a 542dm center before 5:00am Sunday morning. UVM will rapidly increase by 8:00pm this evening and remain strong through 5:00am Sunday….then begin to diminish after 8:00am Sunday. By 11:00 the main UVM (upward vertical motion) will be over the Southern Sierra. Snowfall over the Central Sierra will be more scattered during the PM hours Sunday. A 540DM 500-1000thickness iso-hyet arrives in Mammoth at 2:00am. That is equal to about a 4000ft snow level. Needless to say that in wind protected areas of Bishop, early morning temps will flirt with the freezing mark for a short period of time. High temps in the residential sections of Mammoth will drop into the upper teens to low 20s Sunday morning then climb into the 30s Sunday Pm. This is quite the chilly system.
OUTLOOK:
There is one more system in the chain that will effect California Mid Week. This is actually an interesting scenario. What is happening is that there is going to be a fundamental change in the pattern next week into the next. Strong retrogression of an upper level ridge that will form over the Ohio Valley may cause the next system to become cut-off over, or near California. The Dweebs are not sure how this will all work out quite yet. However, the screaming message is that a fundamental transition in the pattern will occur as heights really increase over the far west causing the westerlies to weaken and jump to the north. This may be an end to an unbelievable long winter!
As far as this next storm goes……Initially, this system comes in to the far west as another chilly closed upper low, with wind and a chance of showers. As the center of an upper ridge retrogrades westward to Northern Texas, the west coast Trof gets stuck….somewhere near the west coast. Will this system progresses east, NE, or cut-off over California or just off shore? Will it become a long term cut-off low trapped within a full latitude upper ridge left to die on the vine? We may get caught up in a late Spring thunderstorm pattern. As if this system cuts off and develops in the right spot offshore, and temps soar within the upper ridge, a springtime convective TSRW pattern may develop over the sierra. Lots to look at and think about the next week and beyond……See Yea!
The Dweeber…………………………..:-)
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Reference Glossary of Weather Terms
Disclaimer: I have been a hobbyist meteorologist for over 30 years here in the Mammoth area and I do this for my personal enjoyment. The National Weather Service saves lives every day . . . I do not. When making important planning decisions please use information provided by the National Weather Service as they are the most knowledgeable and accurate information source available today.
4:00 PM Update Indecates Developing Active Front With Better Snow Fall Potential
Friday May 27, 2011
4:00pm Saturday:
Latest QPF now bumps up snowfall here in the eastern sierra. Weather Front looking juicer and some early am travel problems possible for those visitors that did not bring chains…..
Expect 2 to as much as 4 inches of snowfall in town by 11:00am Sunday.
As it Falls:
up to an inch by 11:00pm; 1 to 2 inches by 5:00am; another inch possible by 11:00 am
Mammoth Mountain may get up to 7 inches by Mid Morning.
Wax-em up!
The Dweeber……………………………:-)
FROM 9:00AM Saturday:
Overall outlook:
Expect another in a series of northeastern pacific upper lows to descend toward the west coast carving out a long wave trof in the mean that will set up more westward then earlier thought a few days ago. This change in the pattern will result in a better chance of snow showers for the high country as well as stronger cooling….Saturday into Sunday. Expect another reinforcing digging trof to effect our region the second half of next week.
This will all result in well below normal temps for Mammoth Lakes over the next 7 days.
The freezing levels for Mammoth will be:
Today Friday 11,500
Saturday 8,800
Sunday 8,200 (Snowlevel)> 6000 in the morning
QPF is in the .10 to .15 range
The forecast is for Breezy weather through the weekend with snow showers developing Saturday evening then into Sunday morning. There could be just a dusting or up to an inch or two. Sunday’s high will be in the low 40s with winds chills below freezing.
Dr Howard and the Dweebs………………………:-)
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Reference Glossary of Weather Terms
Disclaimer: I have been a hobbyist meteorologist for over 30 years here in the Mammoth area and I do this for my personal enjoyment. The National Weather Service saves lives every day . . . I do not. When making important planning decisions please use information provided by the National Weather Service as they are the most knowledgeable and accurate information source available today.