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Archive for August, 2011
A little cooling the next few days followed by a warm up over the weekend…..The longer range shows above normal temps continuing……
Wednesday August 31, 2011
Quick Update for Thursday:
RE: Change in the SSTA pattern off the west coast “may spell” drier then normal fall.
Regarding the -SST Anomalies in the Eastern Pacific. Although the PDO is still in the Negative mode….
There is decisive SST warming in the mid latitudes off the North West Coast of the CONUS.
“If” the trend continues… Warmer then normal Sea Surface temps would probably spread south as well and make up quite a large area of the far Eastern Pacific. IE Off the California Coast northward. This would have the effect of giving us a rather dry fall with below normal precipitation and above normal temps…..
I understand from a meteorologist I spoke with yesterday, that it takes about 60 days for the upper pattern to adjust to a change in the SST pattern. The Dweebs will be following this trend……
see: http://weather.unisys.com/surface/sst_anom.gif
For the loop: http://weather.unisys.com/archive/sst/sst_anom_loop.gif
From Wednesday:
The end of August will finish on a breezy note as the bottom of a small trof scoots through the pacific northwest and swings its tail through Mammoth briefly today. As a result, afternoon breezes with kick up into the 30 to 35mph range today and early this evening.
Today’s temps will cool about 3 degrees and another 3 degrees tomorrow. (76/73)
Thereafter….the 00z gfs Wednesday has the western periphery of the HT500 588dm iso-height line moving back briefly into Mammoth later Saturday morning for a quick warm up. Temps over the holiday weekend look to be in the mid to upper 70s once again with night time lows in the 40s. Breezes will be light Thursday through Saturday…..however, there is the nose of 80knot upper jet at 250MB coming into central Ca Sunday, so there may be more SW wind in the afternoon Sunday. Last night model runs also hinted about some moisture spinning off a tropical storm off the coast of Baja by Labor Day. However, for the time being, that moisture should remain well to the south of us. Nevertheless…there is some dynamics in the channeled upper flow over the weekend and so an isolated TSRW may happen over the crest as the thermal trof will be to the west of Mammoth Saturday.
OUTLOOK:
A strong tropical storm in the western pacific “TALAS” well be making its way inland over Japan Friday into Saturday. The storm apparently becomes extra-tropical by Labor Day and pumps up a big ridge about 170East. The down stream amplification deepens an upper level trof north of Hawaii the 1st half of next week. The results over the far western CONUS and California will be strong height rises and ridging. However, the pattern may resemble more of a REX block with an upper high centered over south western Canada and an upper low somewhere between the Great Basin and northern Ca. As a result, our weather should be warmer then normal. However, not as warm as if there was a full latitude upper ridge. So Mammoth should be into the the mid 70s…..with weak westerly flow aloft. The Block will likely break down quickly going to the following weekend with a series of weak short waves there after. Heights should continue to be high enough for temps to continue into the low 70s.
Dr Howard and the Dweebs…………………………:-)
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Reference Glossary of Weather Terms
Disclaimer: I have been a hobbyist meteorologist for over 30 years here in the Mammoth area and I do this for my personal enjoyment. The National Weather Service saves lives every day . . . I do not. When making important planning decisions please use information provided by the National Weather Service as they are the most knowledgeable and accurate information source available today.
It’s The End Of August And The Rumors Are Once Again Flying About The Biggest Winter Ever!
Tuesday August 30, 2011
Yes…it is that time of the year again! And Mammoth is not lacking in any of the usual big winter rumors. The Biggest Rumor now being perpetrated upon the public is the “Winter of 1000 inches” IE about 85 feet of snow on Mammoth Mtn. Yes folks, not only does Mammoth have the greatest snow in the west, but it has moved from about 37.6 north to near 50N in Latitude, as that is probably would it would take to get Mammoth Mtn up to a 1000 inch Winter….especially during a possible La Nina Winter.
Lets get the science right!
ENSO: ENSO according to the Climatic Prediction Center, is still officially in a neutral state. (La Nada) Last year it was nearly a full blown La Nina at this time.
We are not in a La Nina……
Yes, the Dweebs realize that the Nino region 3.4 numbers have gone negative recently. However, it takes 3 months of SST anomalies of -.5C to call it a “La Nina” For either La Nina or El Nino to be quantified, it must be in that state for at least 3 months! (+-.5C) We are just in the early stages of the beginnings of La Nina if a La Nina occurs at all! This is because for one reason….it can change sign over that period.
Last Winter was a fluke:
We had near record strength of La Nina coupled with both a strong -PDO and the Right Blocking in the high Latts. IE -NAO and -AO. For the atmosphere, it was the perfect storm last winter and we still only received just 668 inches of snow total…not 1000 in inches.
Current conditions…..
We still have a very strong -PDO. That will add to any La Nina that forms in the Pacific. Yes, some of the climate models are predicting La Nina to really intensify later this winter. However, not all of them!
Also remember that La Nina’s here in Central Ca more often than not, bring equal chances of a normal winter’s precipitation, not the super heavy winters like last winter. Last Winters La Nina was rare in the amount of precip that fell. It was off the scale stastically in standards of deviation of the norm.
What the Dweebs are looking forward to this winter:
One of the more interesting events that may take place this winter is a severe cold out break over the far west that often follows a moderate to strong La Nina winter the following year. I do expect periods of snow to fall at very low elevations in Southern and Central Ca, possible down to sea level. Do the Dweebs believe that we will have big storms this winter…..you bet we do!
The Dweebs are excited about the fact that although we have Neutral ENSO conditions at the moment….the global circulation is still in La Nina mode. I would imagine, that will probably continue into next Winter. I am assuming that it is part of the large scale global pattern coupled with the current -PDO SSTA’s including the drought in Texas.
There is no doubt, that the current -PDO is strong. Once we get out of the Western Pacific Typhoon season, the pattern over the pacific will settle down. In the meantime with all the amplification that is likely to take place across the pacific this Fall, there is no doubt that there could be some early storms due to periodic typhoons re-curving to the north over the western pacific.
In the meantime……the current Typhoon will actually have the effect of amplifying a ridge over the far west for some real toasty weather next week! The 6 to 10 and 8 to 14 days outlooks from Monday show warmer then normal temps for the sierra the next couple of weeks……More later…
Dr Howard and the Dweebs…………………….:-)
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Reference Glossary of Weather Terms
Disclaimer: I have been a hobbyist meteorologist for over 30 years here in the Mammoth area and I do this for my personal enjoyment. The National Weather Service saves lives every day . . . I do not. When making important planning decisions please use information provided by the National Weather Service as they are the most knowledgeable and accurate information source available today.
Warmer then normal temps to highlight the weather in the Eastern Sierra this week……a few isolated Thunder Storms possible Tuesday and Wednesday PM…..
Monday August 22, 2011
The last 3rd of the Summer begins on a much warmer then normal note. After a nice weekend, the upper high over Texas shifts back west…..this time as far was as Las Vegas by next Saturday. Throughout the process, we have a light surge of mid level moisture along with the warming Tuesday and Wednesday, for some isolated Thunder. This will be mainly in the late afternoon and early evening hours. High temps will begin in the Mid to upper 70s today and warm into the Mid 80s by Saturday. Expect some high cloudiness the next day or so from an old defunct hurricane last week.
Afternoon winds will not be anything out of the ordinary, from 10 to 20 mph out of the south.
Here is your temperature forecast for Mammoth Lakes for this week:
Enjoy!
MAMMOTH LAKES
Monday Tues Wed Thurs Fri Sat Sun
SUNNY SUNNY PTCLDY SUNNY SUNNY SUNNY SUNNY
/77 43/81 49/83 49/83 50/84 49/85 49/84
Data Logging to be back on line in early september.
The Dweeber
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Reference Glossary of Weather Terms
Disclaimer: I have been a hobbyist meteorologist for over 30 years here in the Mammoth area and I do this for my personal enjoyment. The National Weather Service saves lives every day . . . I do not. When making important planning decisions please use information provided by the National Weather Service as they are the most knowledgeable and accurate information source available today.
