Yesterday was a bust for Southern Mono County rainfall wise….so much for mesoscale forecasting. Lassen County up in Northern Ca got the brunt.  However, many areas north of Mammoth in Mono County got plenty of rain. Like The Topaz Lake area. Today’s forecast is similar with a flash flood watch issued by NWS for Mono County beginning at 1:00pm to 10:00pm tonight. PWAT is a little less this morning. However, still in the range of heavy rain where the main focus is. There is still good divergence over the Sierra as well as light winds aloft…. (less then 10knots)

Today main focus is between Southern Mono County and Tahoe…..more south of where it was yesterday.

Outlook……

Upper low off Southern Ca coast kicks inland late this afternoon into Southern Ca. The dynamic effects of the upper low is gone by Thursday. Drier air moves into Mono Beginning late Wednesday…..however lots of lingering moisture still around for more garden verity showers Thursday through Saturday. There is a migratory short wave coming through this weekend for cooler WX. Then upper ridge builds next week for warmer weather while the Midwest gets its first Arctic blast from the north about Tuesday/Wednesday.

Long Range Talk:

OK…were headed for another La Nina Winter. Lets say that it is going to be at least a moderate one by January.  And….although it is coming on strong as far as how fast it is developing…..odds are, this may not be an early winter. Early winter as defined by enough natural snow to open Mammoth MT in early to Mid October.

Why?

History:

1. Second year La Ninas usually favor early season arctic outbreaks over the Midwest and Mississippi River areas. The one that is coming next week is about a week early I am told.

2. It this is true, then we must have upstream amplification for that to happen. IE Strong ridging over the far west. Strong ridging over the far west is highlighted by Warmer then normal temps over the Great basin and California.

3. Last year at this time, we were already in a full fledged La Nina. This one is still considered incipient.

4. Although the SSTA’s have warmed in areas of the extreme Eastern Pacific since August, the Dweebs are noting that the warming has stopped and that colder SSTAs have expanded both north and west rapidly since the 28th of August.  This cooling is apparently continuing…..  Colder then normal SSTA’s over the eastern pacific favors storminess with above normal precipitation for most of California. However, the further north you go, the wetter it is with La Nina winters.



Dr Howard and the Dweebs………………………:-)



Reference Glossary of Weather Terms
Disclaimer: I have been a hobbyist meteorologist for over 30 years here in the Mammoth area and I do this for my personal enjoyment. The National Weather Service saves lives every day . . . I do not. When making important planning decisions please use information provided by the National Weather Service as they are the most knowledgeable and accurate information source available today.