For the first time this ski season…the very common, positive phase PNA pattern (Pacific North American Teleconnection Pattern) will increase in index and provide more of the classic blocking pattern along the west coast. Sure, we have had plenty of storms going to the north over the past two months. However, actually they have been associated with more of the negative phase of the PNA.  Additionally, the GFS ESM is forecasting the opposite for the East with an increase of the -NAO. North Atlantic Circulation pattern which usually is associated with a colder East.

MJO:  The Dweebs believe that a strengthening MJO in Phase 6 into Phase 7 is probably responsible in part to the increase of amplitude in the 500mb wave pattern over the eastern pacific and across the CONUS in the coming week. The next system that will try to come through the upper ridge,  will be Tuesday next week. I do not hold much hope for that system at this time as the +PNA will be quite strong. Hopefully we will get something.

Something To Watch:

Sometimes when MJO is strong and moves through Phase 7 undercutting can occur or even a pineapple connection can be attributed to it, bringing very wet weather to the west coast. This happened December 31 “96” into January 1st “97” When a large MJO induced Pineapple connection occurred.

Look where the MJO is now and what is forecasted at this link:

Then…..look at the preceding MJO phase space in December of 1996, that preceded the huge Pineapple Connection that effected Ca at the end of December 96 into January 1, of “1997”


This is not a forecast…..just something to watch………………..;-)


Dr Howard and the Dweebs…………………………:-)



Reference Glossary of Weather Terms
Disclaimer: I have been a hobbyist meteorologist for over 30 years here in the Mammoth area and I do this for my personal enjoyment. The National Weather Service saves lives every day . . . I do not. When making important planning decisions please use information provided by the National Weather Service as they are the most knowledgeable and accurate information source available today.