Monday PM update:

New 18Z GFS has nice system for the Sierra on the 6th of March.

Will check and see in the morning if the 00z and 06z Run has it as well.

 

Monday AM.

A band of Snow developed within the area of surface convergence (Deformation) has brought snow to the Northern Sierra and may dump up to 10 in some of the west side resorts with 4 to 6 along some areas of Tahoe.  This is a change to earlier forecasts. Next upstream system will bring a good 1 to 2 feet along the west side resorts Wednesday….

At the Moment snowing lightly in Mammoth…forecast still looks good today with generally light amounts within the 2 to 3 inches range for the resort levels of Mammoth Lakes.

Next upstream system is looking very windy for the high country…. Winds in excess of 100mph are expected Wednesday….with gusts in town and along the highway 395 corridor 50-60mph….  This Mornings WRF shows in increase of amplification with the upper jet becoming more NW orientated with time. Again this is a windy bugger….precip overall looks like in the light category (3-6) will update today, as more guidance come out.

Best guess…..totals from todays storm and Wednesdays 5 to 10 inches over the upper elevations……However, if the mid week system shifts justs some 50-miles to the south…amounts could exceed a foot over the crest.

MJO:

MJO’s on the move again but so far, its strength is not all that impressive. However…over the next week the NCPE is rapidly increasing its intensity….  The models are beginning to pick upon it….

SEE: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/CLIVAR/ncpe.shtml

Additionally….the PNA index has in fact gone negitive at the sametime MJO is at 60E with an extension at 95E. The PNA is probably responding to the increased convection over the Indian Ocean.

More Later….

The Dweeber……………:-)

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Disclaimer: I have been a hobbyist meteorologist for over 30 years here in the Mammoth area and I do this for my personal enjoyment. The National Weather Service saves lives every day . . . I do not. When making important planning decisions please use information provided by the National Weather Service as they are the most knowledgeable and accurate information source available today.