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Archive for March, 2012
Winds to Ramp Up Tonight and Windy Saturday….Expect upwards to a Foot of Powder over the Crest by Sunday Morning……
Friday March 30, 2012
11:00pm update QPF from CRFC 1.8 inches Yosemite Valley by Sunday AM
So 12 To 15 inches of snow possible over the crest.
From Friday AM:
It is will a Mostly Sunny Day today with warmer temps. Mid to Upper 50s at the resort levels (8000ft). The next upstream system heads into the high country late tonight with strong winds on the increase and wind warnings likely Saturday. The snow level will begin on the high side (8500) but then plummet later in the day. 1st Call QPF is about an inch of water EQ for the Crest Storm total. So up to a foot over the powder bowls of Mammoth Mountain. This storm is a rather fast moving system and should move rapidly out Sunday morning……
Improving weather is expected with flat ridging early next week. Highs will return to the 50s by Tuesday. The next upstream system about mid week……
Snowfall Forecast:
3 to 5 inches in town (8000ft) because of the warmer temps…..
6 to 12+ on Mammoth Mtn
Next Update late Sunday or Early Monday AM…..
Dr Howard and the Dweebs…………………………:-)
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Reference Glossary of Weather Terms
Disclaimer: I have been a hobbyist meteorologist for over 30 years here in the Mammoth area and I do this for my personal enjoyment. The National Weather Service saves lives every day . . . I do not. When making important planning decisions please use information provided by the National Weather Service as they are the most knowledgeable and accurate information source available today.
Flat Dirty Ridge to Build Over the High Country through Friday w/Warmer Temps as Well…..Cold Windy System Expected for Saturday…Then Dry Weather through Tuesday….
Thursday March 29, 2012
Yesterday’s storm droped up to 10 inches on Mammoth Mt. Now it appears that we will have a bit of a break in the action today and Friday with warmer daytime temps with lighter breezes today. Highs near 50 is expected today here at the Village at Mammoth. Winds will begin to come up later Friday with highs in the mid 50s…
The next upstream system in the current zonal flow pattern is quite the windy one. Iso-heights are about as packed as I have seen them. A high wind watch has been hoisted for Saturday from the NWS for Mono County. Snowfall…..CRFC has .82 for the Yosemite Valley. So at the moment 5 to 10 inches between the main lodge and the crest possible. A few inches will fall in town as well.
Longer range keeps the hits right on coming with a storm about every 4 days. The storm for the end of next week is being portrayed by the ECMWF as a trof that will cut off….off the California coast with a big deep cut off upper low. In that scenario…..some areas may get a lot of snow……where ?????? Too soon to tell……
The Dweeber……………………:-)
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Reference Glossary of Weather Terms
Disclaimer: I have been a hobbyist meteorologist for over 30 years here in the Mammoth area and I do this for my personal enjoyment. The National Weather Service saves lives every day . . . I do not. When making important planning decisions please use information provided by the National Weather Service as they are the most knowledgeable and accurate information source available today.
Current Negitive Tilt Trof is lifting out to the Northeast through the Pacific NW……WX Front Washing Out Over Mono County…..
Wednesday March 28, 2012
Upper Trof axis is NW/SE over Northern Ca. The WX front itself is over Mono County and is weakening…its remains will drag east as the front looses upper support.
As of 9:00AM the snow plot has picked up close to 7 inches with a few more inches possible by 18z. (11:00am). With the orographic component, I guess it is possible that the crest may get close to 10 to 12 inches by the time it is over. As the front weakens. snowfall will diminish today. Most of the precip will be over by 12:00 noon.
Although a flat ridge builds in Thursday into Friday, westerly flow will continue into the central west coast the next week. The storm over the weekend looks like a moderate quick hitter. 500mb Iso heights are tightly packed….so it will be a windy one. At the moment….the QPF is not all that impressive. Best guess about a foot over the upper elevations….will fine tune later.
The Dweebs are beginning to notice that the actions of the models are showing more of the usual Spring characteristics. A deminishment of accuracy in the medium range is noticeable. This is typical for Spring as the effects of differential heating begins to take effect.
The weather in the longer range is not as conducive to precipitation for the Mammoth area as the past weeks. The upper jet will migrate more to the north, with Northern Calif and the Pacific Northwest quite wet again. In fact there is a hint of a tropical connection for the Northwest later next week……
More Later…..
Dr Howard and the Dweebs……………………….:-)
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Reference Glossary of Weather Terms
Disclaimer: I have been a hobbyist meteorologist for over 30 years here in the Mammoth area and I do this for my personal enjoyment. The National Weather Service saves lives every day . . . I do not. When making important planning decisions please use information provided by the National Weather Service as they are the most knowledgeable and accurate information source available today.
