Friday Night Update:

 

Snowing two inches an hour in Mammoth at the Village….

6 inches at 11:30pm…..looks like another 6 to 7  hours at this rate.

 

LA…are your ready for a real wallop? Wallop coming tomorrow…..just in time for the Marathon?

2 to 4 inches in some areas as 2nd surge heads to the south tomorrow…

 

Update in the morning…..

 

Progress up until now:

Nothing has really changed in the Forecast for Mammoth since earlier in the week. However, the west side of the crest has not received much rain as earlier predicted thus far.  We are still looking at an event that will bring between 30 and 50 inches of snowfall over the crest between today and Sunday Night. At the Village at Mammoth some 24 to 30 inches possible beginning late tonight through Sunday Night.  Most of the Snowfall will occur between midnight Friday night and Midnight Saturday night….with much lower snowfall rates per hour Sunday. All in All, it appears that we will not loose anything in the amounts which were earlier predicted…it is just coming all at once. So keep your snorkels handy Sunday into early next week as more of the mountain opens as the winds diminish….

Improving weather will occur Monday with a northwest upper flow.  This could allow snow showers and windy weather into early Tuesday. Fair weather expected Tuesday into Wednesday with short wave ridging….

Note Concerning Wind

Check out SJSU 300 mb progs sequence…really strong jet wind max coming into West coast…but come Monday when jet core dives south astraddle the crest of the Sierra…pilots taking off in the Sierra i.e…Truckee…South Lake Tahoe…Mammoth etc or trying to cross Sierra IFR (aka…I follow road) have had big problems and some unfortunately have been found later in the Spring…

MJO UPDATE

The MJO  weakened in Phase space 5 and now has crossed into the Phase 6. It is entering into the western pacific where typically the PNA sign will flip from negative to positive as the MJO progresses through the Western Pacific and heads for the Dateline.

The Global Wind Oscillation (GWO) which has been in (phases 1 through 4 ) February 21 through the 9th of March has expressed the lowest AAM during this period of the winter of 2011/2012. However….Atmospheric Angular Momentum has been on the increase the past week and the PNA will be responding by a positive index in the coming week as well.

SEE:  http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/map/images/gcm/gwo_90d.gif

Effects:

The GFS is showing another large scale trof approaching the west coast by next weekend.  Considering the indication that MJO will increase in strength as it moves through Phase 6 into 7 and that AAM will be increasing as well. The end result will make it difficult for the current progressive pattern to continue later this week and may in-fact have the effect of cutting or closing off the large scale trof over the eastern pacific allowing precipitation to be more confined to the coastal sections of the central west coast then inland over the Eastern Sierra. In other words we may not get the end of the week storm or it will be significantly weakened…..

Stay Tuned….

The Dweeber…………………………….

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Reference Glossary of Weather Terms
Disclaimer: I have been a hobbyist meteorologist for over 30 years here in the Mammoth area and I do this for my personal enjoyment. The National Weather Service saves lives every day . . . I do not. When making important planning decisions please use information provided by the National Weather Service as they are the most knowledgeable and accurate information source available today.