After a spectacular weekend…..Monday has begun on a fair note. The Dweebs expect gradually increasing winds in the afternoon. The current upper ridge aloft will make way east in advance of the next windy weather maker March style. This mornings 12z guidance showed the rear right entry region of a 110knot upper jet sagging south the next 24 hours. This will likely induce a band of light snowfall to develop dynamically over the northern and Central Sierra Tuesday morning behind the cold front.  The FROPA is expected by 8-9 Am here in Southern Mono County. Winds will be the strongest between Sunrise and the FROPA here in the Mammoth area. QPF from CRFC is just under .3 inches for Yosemite. So 1 to 3 inches best bet. As the upper trof comes through…the effects of the front left exit region of the upstream upper jet approaches the region with an increase of wind over the crest and again the chance of some flurries or snow showers later Tuesday afternoon into Wednesday Am. The upper jet translates east Wednesday. Milder temps will return in the following days. So we begin with high temps today into the 50s with a 20 degree drop in temps expected tomorrow Tuesday. Highs by Thursday/Friday will be back into the upper 40s/50s.

So again…..After a very chilly Tuesday and into Wednesday….milder weather will return Thursday into Friday will mild partly cloudy weather expected over the weekend. Beyond the weekend the longer range models still struggling with their differences. However the ECMWF has a rather impressive long wave trof effecting California next week. We will have to keep an eye on that one.  Overall, although the MJO has been in a favorable position, the AO has remained positive and is possibly hindering to some extent precip possibilities south into the South Central Sierra.

The outlook is very similar across the hemisphere with very cold temps continuing over AK and anomalous warmth over the much of the CONUS. The winter of 2011/2012 may end up as being one of the top 10 warmer winters over the continental US historically while in areas like AK and Europe one of the colder….

 

Dr Howard and the Dweebs…………:-)

 

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Reference Glossary of Weather Terms
Disclaimer: I have been a hobbyist meteorologist for over 30 years here in the Mammoth area and I do this for my personal enjoyment. The National Weather Service saves lives every day . . . I do not. When making important planning decisions please use information provided by the National Weather Service as they are the most knowledgeable and accurate information source available today.