Back to reality…..

New CRFC QPF has come in drier beginning at 4:00am over the next 48 hours showing 1.21 inches for the Yosemite Valley…..Huntington Lake .61

That is a good 1/3 less than it showed yesterday PM.

Additionally…..The way this system is coming in at this latitude, it favors the west side up to the crest with amounts diminishing rapidly as you go east of the crest. That is because the active precip phase of the upper jet’s axis is to far to the north…and there is no additional moisture being advected in from the south. The system is totally dynamically driven…All the moisture is coming up over the eastern pacific ridge west of Hawaii, and none of it is being advected from the southwest off the Ca Coast.

Currently the nose of 130knott upper jet is inland just north of the Bay Area and will push southeast and….at the sametime translate east. This is one of our windiest patterns here in the high country. All in all by Thursday Pm we still have the chance of getting a foot over the upper elevations….

This weekend looks fair with warmer temps. Highs in the low 50s Saturday/Sunday.

Outlook:

The next system on Tuesday is another NW slider so it may bring a few showers along with wind and cooling…….

The following system down the road to keep an eye out for is the March 9th storm….then another on the 11th….

Another may follow around mid month….

MJO:

Is in its active phase and effecting the pattern over the pacific by a flip in the PNA index to negitive. That is a big reason why it is stormy here in the Sierra.  Retrogression has occured to an extent. However, a bit more is needed to get the long wave far enough to the west for the upper jet to come in to the south of us. The Dweebs believe that over the next week or two, that is possible. This is based on the dynamical models from the operational global prediction systems, forecasting the MJO, remaining active and moving over the warmer waters of the Indian Ocean, then east to the Martitine Continent. However, if the MJO stalls or weakens contrary to the forecasts that would be siginfcant.

 

The Dweeber……………………:-)

 

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Reference Glossary of Weather Terms
Disclaimer: I have been a hobbyist meteorologist for over 30 years here in the Mammoth area and I do this for my personal enjoyment. The National Weather Service saves lives every day . . . I do not. When making important planning decisions please use information provided by the National Weather Service as they are the most knowledgeable and accurate information source available today.