3:30PM Update

Still shows a wetter system for Mammoth then what the Zone forecast from NWS is indicating for Mammoth… The updated QPF from CRFC has 1.95 inches for the Yosemite Valley Through Thursday Night. The Updated QPF for Huntington Lake is 9 tenths. So if your conservative and add them, then divide X 2 you still get 1.43 inches. Considering the temps…..at ratios of 12:1 that’s “about” 17 inches over the crest by Thursday Night.

Gee the local guys might even get a double plow?

From this AM:

A Nice Baroclinic Leaf has developed this morning off the coast of the pacific NW. This is a sign of a rapidly deepening upper Trof. The nose of 120Knott upper jet is approaching Northern California and will come in Just north of the Bay Area then across to Tahoe.  Models coming in wetter this morning….Tahoe will get the lions share of snow with this one with up to a foot around the Lake and some of the guidance suggesting 3 to 4 feet in the Mountains NW of the Lake though Thursday.

The southern portions of Mono County will be under the Front Right Exit region of the upper jet during the best forcing…. The QPF stated by CRFC is showing 1.2 inches for Yosemite with amounts of .46 at Huntington Lake through Thursday. The freezing level is about 5K. So the Snow will be pretty dry and will fluff out. Mammoth is between these two area but a bit closer to Yosemite. So considering the freezing level, Mammoth Mt could get between 6 and 12 inches of snowfall between tomorrow Am and Thursday Ngt. The area between 395 and the Village between 2 and 6 inches…same time frame.

Winds will be important to note as gusts in the 50 to as high as 80 mph in the windiest areas are possible Wednesday for travel along the highway 395 corridor. Winds over the crest are expected to reach 115 to 120mph Wednesday into Wednesday night. High wind warnings go into effect for Mono County at 7:00am Wednesday and at 10:00am for the Owens Valley. The Owens Valley will experience strong down-slope winds in excess of 60 mph later in the day Wednesday…..out of the WNW. Winds will peak about dinner time…..then slowly decrease…..

 

The outlook for this weekend is for fair weather with 8000ft temps in the 40s…lows in the teens and 20s with light winds….

 

 

Dr Howard and the Dweebs……………………….:-)

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Disclaimer: I have been a hobbyist meteorologist for over 30 years here in the Mammoth area and I do this for my personal enjoyment. The National Weather Service saves lives every day . . . I do not. When making important planning decisions please use information provided by the National Weather Service as they are the most knowledgeable and accurate information source available today.