Wednesday Am Update:

 

Moisture from Miriam, will be split NW/NE around the desert southwest. Most moisture will head into Texas via Sonora Mx, however the upper Subtropical upper low will pull some moisture NW off the Southern Ca Coast and will wrap into the off shore low. There is still the possibility of some of this moisture getting channeled northward along the Ca coast then inland into the Sierra about the middle of next week or just prior to the following weekend. The results would be showers and the back country’s first dusting!……so will keep an eye out for this.

In the meantime enjoy! Enjoy warming temps in Mammoth back into the low 70s by Thursday and fair WX. Night time temps will be above freezing Thursday AM in Mammoth and through the weekend….Temps in Bishop back to the low 90s by Sunday……!!!!

Seasonal:

Some thoughts this morning…….

The El Nino Forecast continues to look weak this fall with the possibility of ENSO neutral conditions returning for most of this Winter.  It very well may be that the influence of the -PDO has some kind of dampening effect upon El Nino strength or its growth?   The phases the AO and NAO which were quite positive last winter and negative this Summer/Fall have been recently relating to a lot of Meridional flow. (N/S)  The easterly phase of the QBO that has been ongoing since last Fall 2011…..(time wise) is getting quite seasoned and a Flip to the Westerly Phase will be more likely anytime after the new year.  Most long range forecasts I have seen have been based in part by the ongoing Easterly Phase of the QBO.  IE. Strato winds moving from East to West which usually relates to a weaker Hudson Bay Low. A Westerly Phase in the QBO often times relates to a deeper Hudson Bay Low and stronger -AO and -NAO numbers during the Winter especially during the time of the flip from easterly to westerly or vice verse. So what I would expect during the winter and the current set up of the supporting warm SSTA’s throughout the Davis Straights are very large negative departures of normal in both the -NAO and -AO, not unlike the winter before last.  However, the Pacific SST set up is quite different now than it was as compared to the Winter of 2011.  Two years ago we had a strong La Nina, last year a weaker La Nina.  This Winter La Nada?    Case in point, weak El Ninos “often times” cause drier than normal winters for the interior portions of Central Ca.  With that said……ENSO +/- of 05C are notorious for stronger MJO activity.  Combining a Winter with Enhanced Meridional Flow and Strong MJO action carrying through the Western Pacific may make all the difference in being the important feature for February/March during the winter of 2012/13 in Northern and Central Ca.  The Dweebs are once again mentioning this because of the current ENSO set up over the central pacific. I am touting the possibility of a Pineapple Connection later in the Winter. The odds are higher for this during a forecast of a weakly positive ENSO State and would make the difference of a drier then normal winter with conversion to a normal or even a wetter then normal winter, water wise.  Are the Dweebs Forecasting a wet winter. No…..  However, odds wise, there is a stronger possibility of the subtropical branch of the westerlies out of the tropics reaching the west coast later next winter I believe.

 

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Jack Frost took a quick swipe at the lower elevations of town this morning as lows were near freezing. This timely occurrence is expected by late September.  The pattern over the far west is highlighted by upper ridging building in while an area of low pressure aloft develops to our WSW. Tropical storm Miriam is headed NW but will make the turn shortly to the North then NE coming inland over Central Baja. Some debris from her may get caught up in the upper flow,  with a subtropical upper low developing to her NW over the weekend. Rainfall is expected over the desert SW from the debris. However, for Southern Mono County, there was not enough threat to put the slight chance into the forecast.  So expect a very nice warm weekend with highs in the low 70s….I.E. about 8 degrees above normal for this time of the year.

Next pattern change retrogrades the upper ridge westward to the western G of AK while the upper low that is expected to develop over the next few days remains off-shore. A sort of Rex block is likely to develop over the eastern pacific with heights remaining above climo so warmer then normal weather to continue through the end of September.

We will have to keep an eye on the fact that once the upper ridge gets west of 140west….there is always the chance that short wave energy coming over the top of the upper ridge could dive southeast into the pacific-northwest and pick up the upper low to the southwest of us bringing showers, a dusting and much cooler weather. This is not a forecast…..but something to watch out for toward the end of the first week of October.

 

Dr Howard and the Dweebs………………………………..:-)

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Reference Glossary of Weather Terms
Disclaimer: I have been a hobbyist meteorologist for over 30 years here in the Mammoth area and I do this for my personal enjoyment. The National Weather Service saves lives every day . . . I do not. When making important planning decisions please use information provided by the National Weather Service as they are the most knowledgeable and accurate information source available today.