Quicker Saturday AM Update:

Just a quick note to say that Both the ECMWF and GFS have backed off the storm for next weekend……

Is this for real or just a head fake?  Will update Monday to see if the change is still there….

 

In the meantime a chilly night is expected tonight with many areas going below freezing in the dry cool air…

protect your plants one more time then get ready for some Fab WX next week!!!

The Dweeber………………..:-)

 

Quick Update Friday AM:

Winds will come up today in the 25 to 45mph class as the nose of a 110knot upper jet translates across Northern Ca. The NWS has hoisted a Red Flag Warning for high fire danger this afternoon…then until 10:00pm tonight. This time is during a period of expected lowest humidity…as well as the strongest gusty winds.

Temperatures/Wind Then Possible Precip

Temps today Friday will be little changed from yesterday’s high of 67 at the Village at Mammoth….however there will be some 10 degrees of cooling by Saturday. The coldest morning will be Sunday with a light freeze possible in north wind protected areas. Of additional interest is a significant surface high (1024MB) that will build over Northern Nevada Sunday afternoon.  This will keep a significant “Off-Sierra” flow toward the coast across the southern two thirds of California. The NE flow over the Sierra Crest will keep the Mono Zephier squashed,  and so afternoon play and late “Tee Times” for our local golf courses will be unusually good both Monday and possibly Tuesday next week. This is good as temperatures will be on the rise. High temps in Mammoth should hit 80 by Wednesday the 13th. By Wed the 13th The afternoon Mono Zephier will begin to resume…..then becoming quite moderate by Thursday.  As mentioned below in yesterdays discussion, there will be quite a change to breezy, cooler and possibly showery weather by the following weekend as a chilly upper low either drops south over Ca from the pacific NW or back doors us Saturday/Sunday..the 16th/17th. There may be afternoon convection by Friday afternoon the 15th in the transition, so a chance of some showers or thunderstorms then.

From Yesterday:

The march of trofs appear to want to continue into the pacific northwest, at least through mid month with fluctuating temps allowing a few more freezes for the high county before the Summer Solstice arrives.  The next area of low pressure comes into the pacific northwest as a closed upper low. Although this upper center will not dig south into Northern California…..its upper jet will.  As the “Front Rt” exit region comes into the Northern Ca, gusty winds will increase across the Sierra by mid-day Friday, peaking in intensity Friday evening. Winds should begin to diminish early Saturday Morning after 2:00AM. Winds will be moderate not strong…possibly up to 40-45 mph in town. Much drier air is expected to be pulled into the Sierra from the WNW to increase the fire danger, late Friday afternoon into the night.  (See NWS Fire Weather Warning)

Saturday will be breezy and cooler with highs returning to the mid 50s at resort levels.  By Sunday, the upper low is expected to swing ENE through Montana….then eventually into Canada as short wave ridging builds into the Pacific NW.

The Result….. After a chilly cool morning Sunday with a possible light freeze…..warmer temps are expected with highs back into the upper 60s Sunday and highs into the 70s returning to the high country Monday into Tuesday,  lasting into Wednesday.  Night time lows will be in the 30s/low 40s the first half of next week but above freezing….Winds will be light.

OUTLOOK:

Longer Range….

It appears that another “possibly stronger” weather system will begin to effect our region after the middle of next week. It is too soon to know exactly how far south this system will dig. However, it should dig into the pacific northwest the 15th into the 16th where it will tap some chilly air from South Western Canada. So the following weekend looks at the least breezy and cooler again.

At the moment…..there is some suggestion that a strong storm moving through the northern pacific around the dateline will travel east with enough strength to build a ridge down stream, with enough amplitide behind the upper low the weekend of the 15th. This would dig the upper low in the Pacific NW south over the Sierra on the 17th.

Although this is not a forecast as of yet…it is just something to keep an eye on as the ECMWF model on last nights 00z June 7th run also had a system developing some 10 days out. the ECMWF digs an upper low down the west coast on the 17th with its operational run. Its ensembles just show trofing.  If this storm does materialize, showery weather with convection would be possible for the Sierra as well as the chance of another significant freeze…a day or two after the 17th. The Dweebs feel that the current negative phase PDO is continuing to support weather makers, beyond week 1 and week 2 as warm water continues to pile up NW of Hawaii to the dateline and colder then normal water continues along the west coast.

More Later……………………………..>>>>

 

Dr Howard and the Dweebs………………………:-)

 

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Reference Glossary of Weather Terms
Disclaimer: I have been a hobbyist meteorologist for over 30 years here in the Mammoth area and I do this for my personal enjoyment. The National Weather Service saves lives every day . . . I do not. When making important planning decisions please use information provided by the National Weather Service as they are the most knowledgeable and accurate information source available today.