Upper pattern shows a cold closed low pressure system along the UT/AZ boarder shifting east. By this afternoon the upper center will be just north of four-corners.  In its wake, a strong northerly flow will continue over Eastern Ca with strong gusty Sierra Crest winds and below normal temps. There is even a small short wave that will come south over Mammoth today. There may be a few flurries associated with it during the afternoon/evening. No measurable precipitation is expected.

Northerly flow aloft will continue all weekend with daytime highs in the 20s in town and teens on Mammoth Mt. Nights will be quite cold in the single digits. There will be Northerly breezes in town and strong north winds over the ridges today and Sunday.  The extended outlook progresses the upper ridge closer to the west coast the 2nd half of the new week. This will ensure fair weather with seasonal temps Wednesday through Friday. Next weekend looks fair and mild with the next possible small weather maker the following week.

 

Long Range:

Latest inter-seasonal outlook (beyond 2 weeks) still shows a major pattern change the end of the month of February into March initiated by the MJO.  Currently the MJO has been stationary for the past week in phase 1. It did weaken somewhat with the area of convection lessening. The forecast is for the MJO to become moderate again and move eastward over the Indian ocean over the next 10 days. Until it begins to move again, the timing to the change in the hemispheric pattern will be static.

Dr Howard and the Dweebs……………………………:-)