Monday AM:

Dry WX to continue this week with a chance of a pattern change next week.  The GFS has been trying to break some energy underneath the big upper ridge.  No guarantees though….ECMWF has a little snow for us (Few Inches) around the 8th-9th)

Otherwise it will probably be cooler and breezy next week as well.  Remember…..in dry years…you can get a storm in here between dry patterns….

 

The Dweeber………………………:-)

 

Sunday PM

Both 12Z and 18Z GFS and ECMWF are very different in their extended runs as I indicated that they would be in the coming week. Their differences are even greater beyond the 7 to 10 days period. Sensibly, it is noted that our current upper ridge will weaken later this new week and give way to either a NW slider or an inside slider.  The main differences will be mostly in the amount of wind we will get and the amount of cooling. For the most part, both models continue the dry weather pattern with no relief in sight next week. Expect a chance of showers Friday night/Saturday……That will be it.

The only optimistic part of the long range is in what we call fantasy land or week 2. It is good that the GFS is in disagreement with the EC and GEM.  This is the period of time of most interest….. The fact that they are different is cause for the thought that something is going on that the dry models are not seeing. More over, all these models at the least have some of their ensemble members showing undercutting. The MJO although weak is moving through the phases. Currently in Phase 5/6.  (AAM is on the increase)

 

Dr Howard and the Dweebs………………………..:-)