Dweeb Update: Star date 2.27.13@9:20pmPST….

 

Nice quite evening…..all calm on the western front…Temps in the upper 20s….

Latest operational 00z Thursday GFS has a rather unimpressive off shore ridge out about 130west that will progress into the west coast Friday. As it does…it stands up over the state. IE Amplification upstream will be the pump. As a result…high temps will become above normal with temps on Saturday 55 to 60 degrees in Mammoth.  Bishop in the low 70s.

By Sunday….the ridge shifts east to the Rockies as a rather unimpressive short wave dampens and splits during its transit through the golden state. At Wednesday AM, the Dweebs were not impressed or I should say “as impressed” as it looked Tuesday morning.  However, I will look again Friday.  In the meantime all eyes are focused upon the system for mid-week, next week. The set up with a large upper long wave ridge progressing east and a short wave coming west from the mid lats looks promising. The system gets a shot of BC, Can air prior to its arrival….as well as remnants of a small ribbon of Subtropical moisture from 140West. The QPF last time I checked the EC was running about an inch/foot of fresh.  By the following weekend (10th)….retrogression in the over all pattern across the pacific looks somewhat promising for later the 2nd week of March if the retrogression of the long wave high continues.

Again……The mid week system will be coming west underneath a developing block over AK,  this system should be good for at least a foot of fresh Wednesday over the upper elevations. Will fine tune over the weekend.  In the meantime it’s status quot except for some unsettled weather Sunday. IE Wind, cooling and snow showers…light accumulation if any….

Long Range:

It does look light some major hemispheric changes are going to take place later in the month of March.

The 06z Run last night of the GFS has quite a Kona Complex developing about the 15th in fantasyland, confluent with a significant polar jet at 140W. If this atmospheric river develops, it would be very significant for hydrological reasons for a lot of California. (This is not a forecast yet…just a model curiosity).

 

The Dweeber…………………..:-)