Sunday Am update:

No changes this morning……Short, medium and long range all look dry….

Temperatures look seasonal with highs mostly in the low to mid 60s and lows in the 30s and 40s.

Today weather is being effected by the big storm in the pacific northwest. The front Rt exit region of the upper jet is providing lots of wind for the high country of Eastern Ca along with high clouds.  Otherwise not much going on.

The only chance of a change in the next few weeks would occur if a western typhoon constructively phases with the westerly’s coming off Asia. The typhoon that effected the current storm to the north, destructively phased and thus the flow zonaled out.  The Dweebs will be watching the western pacific with interest as there are several of these tropical systems wanting to recurve to the north. If the timing becomes right with their recurring, we could see a storm in October similar to what we had around the equinox, however stronger as it is later in the year.

Next update Tuesday:

 

Dr.  Howard and the Dweebs…………………………………………..:-)

 

Although there is quite the Atmospheric River, “AR” set up for the pacific Northwest in the coming days…..the high country around Mammoth will only experience dry weather, however breezy at times through the middle of next week. The earlier high temperature forecast for 70F the early part of next week looks a bit over done now from this mornings perspective, however our weather will hold seasonal temperature wise into next week with just some high clouds.

The powerful storm with typhoon moisture is heading for Washington State and Oregon this weekend.  Remnants of western pacific typhoon Pabuk are rapidly spreading from northern Japan and Kamchatka across the Bering Sea, Aleutians and over the Gulf of AK today. Although most likely we will not see any rain from this system….we will get some high clouds along with periods of wind. Temperatures should not be effected much until next Thursday when about 10 degree of cooling could be expected.

Eventually the upper pattern gets stretched southward into California in the form of a stretched out splitting trof that brings some showers as far south as Tahoe with windy or breezy weather and some cooling to Mammoth next Thursday.  I think that Wednesday night or Thursday would be the best chance of any showers down here if we were to get some. I’d put the odds at 10% or 15%.  Thereafter…… 500mb heights increase again for even warmer weekend following in the 8 to 14 day period.

EL Nino:

The CFS V2 guidance has the tempo picking up for El Nino this winter. It has it looking both stronger, possibly in the moderate range and arriving sooner…….

SEE: http://origin.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wwang/cfsv2fcst/imagesInd3/nino3Mon.gif

 

Dr Howard and the Dweebs……………………..:-)